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Cry Wolf » Archives » Tote Valley Tales: Forget-Me-Not Festival | THE END | Town Win!

Tote Valley Tales: Forget-Me-Not Festival | THE END | Town Win!

+15
katagi
Vanilla Ace
Aeiou
Five
Entelechy
angel★
ezzelin
Tiki The Troll
Rasei
nautilus
plotstickers
Kiyoko
Luxaria
Ninfia
Mr. Gerbear
19 posters

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Mr. Gerbear

Mr. Gerbear

Rollover is in like 47 minutes

plotstickers

plotstickers

Gah, sorry, I'm super distracted because I'm watching a movie and my mom wanted me to listen to her make a phone call to the IRS. (She just called me over again and now she wants me to watch the stove...) I'm going to take a look at the most recent vote tally and math it up to see where the votes stand, and hopefully get my thoughts together. I'm kind of inclined to NL at the moment at least to get a vote in. vote: no lynch

Ninfia

Ninfia
Admin

Man I really need to get my head in the fucking game this game. jfc.

Okay. here is a list of people I would feel okay voting for in order of from most likely to to least.


Aeiou - no cc and did accurately identify two actions, but could also know this if both lux and aeiou are maf.
Lux - I'm not sure I want to get into it yet, but.... house paint is in play so I'm sort of mulling something over in my brain.
Lucas - didn't send in the nk but that isn't necessarily a clear.
Plot - if it weren't like 40 minutes to rollover I'd probably throw in an activity vote. Was ninja'd by plot so moot point now I guess.
Duck - scummy but also ducky.




http://www.ninfia.tumblr.com

Kiyoko

Kiyoko
Admin

NINFIA'S POST CONFIRMED SOMETHING I WAS ALREADY WONDERING ABOUT SO I AM NO LONGER SUSPICIOUS OF NINFIA

RE: SECOND LIST, I'M MOSTLY IGNORING IT FOR NOW BECAUSE I AM NOT AT ALL SUSPICIOUS OF MITSU, AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE IS ZERO MAFIA IN THAT LIST SO FOCUSING THERE FIRST MIGHT BE A WASTE OF EFFORT. I WOULD LIKE TO HEAR FROM PLOT, THOUGH.

VOTE: NO LYNCH BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH I DISLIKE NO LYNCHING, I WOULD RATHER A LAST MINUTE NL BANDWAGON THAN A LAST MINUTE BANDWAGON ON A TOWN WHO CAN'T DEFEND THEMSELVES. WE GOT SOME GOOD INFO OUT OF THIS PHASE, SO I THINK WE'RE OKAY

http://kiyokon.tumblr.com

Ninfia

Ninfia
Admin

augh okay, well. I guess Kiyo is right in that we got a lot of good information so... vote: no lynch but I'm vaguely annoyed about voting no lynch.

I'm glad I cleared things up with you I guess? and you do have a good point about the second list. I just feel like since you and mitsu are big talkers it would be a good idea to bring it up at least.

I'm also very not suspicious of Mitsu, but its kind of for meta reasons, haha

http://www.ninfia.tumblr.com

Luxaria

Luxaria

Dipping in:

@ Kiyoko
I figured you'd be the one to rope up Lucas the moment I saw it. It has your name all over it. That said, I wasn't concerned with Rasei's attempted rope purchase--I actually saw the items she attempted to get as town-leaning--but rather with something else I noticed. I'm hesitant to dive into this, though, since it's either really pro-town or really anti-town to probe into it. Which makes this... difficult.

For Aeiou, I'm not sure if I find the binoculars purchase suspicious or not. I can see it going both ways. If mafia have it, they might have a better way of noticing if someone happened to visit a target that they didn't claim using an item on, suggesting one of the few persistent power roles. If town has it, they can check to see the same but flipped for mafia.

Aeiou probed me to see if I would announce which two targets I visited. I'm not sure if that's a move a town or mafia would make. On one hand she could've been trying to see if I'd lie. On the other hand, if she knew I visited Ninfia and then waited to see if I could explain what that might've been... I guess it depends on if she bought my wine claim, because as far as I can tell none of the 2G items other than stationery would cause me to visit a target and not be immediately obvious about it. Then again, I also don't know if she would've tried to claim against me if I said I had only visited one target, and we can't go back in time to find out.

For Duck, the stationery purchase seems pro-town at a glance, but Kiyo's scrap paper said Duck spent 8G. There's only so many other options that would lead to a total shopping list of 8G. Temporary Paint and the Fishing Rod would bring the total up to 8G and both are items that feel more mafia-leaning, and they're both unclaimed from what we know. Any other purchases than these two would mean Duck spent anywhere from 2G - 4G on the unlimited stock, not including the original stationery purchase, and I doubt Duck bought 4x, 3x, or even 2x stationery. Unless they own the postal shop, I guess. That might be a possibility. Otherwise, Duck doesn't seem the type to dump the rest of their money into lottery/festival items, I think, unless they were seriously prepping for the festival. And they would need to do this if they bought 1x Stationery, (1x or 2x 2G items, like Crab Traps or Tin Cans or something).

Hmmm.

I think I'm not inclined to vote Ninfia given how I'm reading what she's saying. I skimmed her recent post and I agree that of the four in the other grouping, I'm most intrigued by plot.

Hmmm.

I'm honestly really tempted to vote for Duck now, because that purchase combined with Kiyoko's information is really weird to me. But if they're mafia, would mafia purchases show up in the scrap paper? And Duck never contradicted spending 8G... Hmm. I think mafia would have to show up, else the list is basically a second cop role, so to speak. So unless Duck owns the postal shop, this is probably my best lead until they comment otherwise.

Vote: Entelechy

I'm curious what you have to say about all of this. Failing a Duck lynch, I'm down for possibly plot, Aeiou, or Rasei, just due to knowing the least about them. I think Aeiou and Rasei's actions feel pro-town at a glance. I guess the last alternative is No Lynch. Though I tend to hate that.

Vanilla Ace

Vanilla Ace

After much thought, and fellow human Kiyoko's handy list, I'm honestly more likely to vote fellow human Ninfia because that katagi vote after fellow human katagi's claim felt weird and the whole exchange after that, although that seemed to have been settled. Seett-tulld. And it feels like the same way she played after she was recruited by our rival idol group back when we were part of an idol group together. ((OOC: Then again, Love Live maf was the only game I have played here prior to this. I should probably get around to reading through pasf games. Also, my gut reads have been known to be super wrong all day every day))

Ohh, fellow human Ninfia has posted. After reading through their post, I feel less inclined to vote for her hmmmmmm. Humans can be so hard to read sometimes. I'd go for a fellow human-wolf-person Vowels eviction, but she wanted to evict a dead person. Perrr-suun. Which, according to my previous studies, is not a normal thing to do.

I am considering letting everyone stay in the valley for now because I don't really feel comfortable voting for anyone at the moment. At the same time, I feel like it is helpful to trim down drandahl's list as early as now.

((OOC: Oh man, when you're on mobile EVERYONE is a ninja))

I'm going to throw a vote: no lynch because I guess we can all be friends for one more night

((Everyone))

nautilus

nautilus

Hello again! ♥

nautilus wrote:
Ace II
Aeiou I
Ninfia I
no lynch it's in the lead
Five I
Entelechy I

drandahl vs Ace
Rasei vs Aeiou
Ace vs katagi  no lynch
Ninfia vs katagi
ezzelin vs Ninfia
katagi vs Ninfia
high seraph vs no lynch
Kiyoko vs Ace no lynch
Aeiou vs Five
nautilus vs Ace
angelstar vs no lynch
Ninfia vs Ace no lynch
Entelechy vs Ace
plotstickers vs no lynch
Luxaria vs Entelechy


As it stands, it's an effective RNG between no lynch and Ace, but literally anything could tip it. So, here are some thoughts I have while I continue baking cookies at the literal speed of light. ♥



  • Missus Mayor, if the player with the bomb passes it and is lynched the same phase, will the pass go through or will the bomb move back to mafia?
  • For reasons that I thought of while I was in the shower, I am now inclined to believe the veracity of drandahl's list to some degree, though I concede he could also be Lying MegaCorp Scum.
  • In retrospect, it's difficult to lie about explicit items purchased because the shopkeeper associated with that store will know roughly what was purchased and what wasn't, judging from their sales; part of the reason why I wanted to line up the items in that way was to check numbers and try to reverse engineer who bought what items on Day 1. I'm trying, okay, mafia math is not my strong point. Have the person who chalked up the Winesenberg Principle do this.
  • There is a player I am suspicious of in the first list, but I don't have enough of an opinion on it and am unsure if I want to cast a vote on them just yet (even a protest-I-don't-like-NLing vote).
  • Plot is watching Anthem of the Heart right now and was playing HARDCORE VIRTUAL SOCCER AND HOCKEY with Angel and I last night (which Angel can corroborate), so she is actually not around right now. Why am I your spokesperson, Plot. Plot come back and talk more later once you're done, okay



Last edited by nautilus on Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:37 pm; edited 2 times in total

drandahl

drandahl

Hmm. I'm fine NL. We do lose out on our town advantage if we kill some shop owners, or if we kill players who are hoarding a lot of money and have yet to redistribute via purchase or win something.

Meanwhile mafia's power is limited. Will hold out for a little longer though, in case something happens.

Mr. Gerbear

Mr. Gerbear

The bomb pass will go through if it's sent before the person holding it is lynched :3

Kiyoko

Kiyoko
Admin

I WOULD NOT BE AGAINST A DUCK LYNCH GIVEN MY OWN PROCESS OF ELIMINATION AND LUXARIA'S REASONING, BUT THERE ARE ONLY 25 MINUTES 21 MINUTES IT TOOK ME FOUR MINS TO WRITE THIS TINY POST WTF LEFT IN THE PHASE AND I FEEL LIKE IF WE TRY TO PUSH A LYNCH THIS LATE, THINGS WILL NOT GO WELL

I DON'T REALLY THINK ACE IS MAFIA ANYMORE AT LEAST, THOUGH, SO THERE'S THAT

http://kiyokon.tumblr.com

drandahl

drandahl

Hmm. I don't suppose it's in our Harvest Goddess's advantage to hold the bomb for us..?

Kiyo, I'd rather wait until Duck isn't holding the bomb to consider lynching him.

EDIT: Actually, nevermind. It's the same either way, so long as he passes before he's lynched if he's town.



Last edited by drandahl on Mon Apr 25, 2016 6:42 pm; edited 1 time in total

nautilus

nautilus

Alrighty, I guess I will begrudgingly vote: no lynch because I want some money for baking supplies, and I'm not 100% certain on my suspicion just yet... I'm very wishy-washy about this one! ;m;

(For the record: the player in question is not Duck, but it is someone on the first list).

I got ninja'd by like 5 people, so:


RE: SECOND LIST, I'M MOSTLY IGNORING IT FOR NOW BECAUSE I AM NOT AT ALL SUSPICIOUS OF MITSU, AND THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE IS ZERO MAFIA IN THAT LIST SO FOCUSING THERE FIRST MIGHT BE A WASTE OF EFFORT. I WOULD LIKE TO HEAR FROM PLOT, THOUGH.


This is actually why I'm not focusing on the second list, since it might be a colossal waste of effort for us to focus on it and then everyone on that list flips town.


I'm also very not suspicious of Mitsu, but its kind of for meta reasons, haha


|o)!!!


But if they're mafia, would mafia purchases show up in the scrap paper?


I mused about it briefly about whether or not the mafia purchase would show up as an individual purchase or a group purchase (though the front page describes it as an individual purchase), but this is something I'm curious on.

I also don't think Duck would be able to come back and defend themselves if they are put to lynch, according to their post, so there's that?

Rasei

Rasei

*Rasei staggers in, dearly needing sleep and something to cure earache* Howdy. I browsed through the post made since the last time I been on. I'm coming down with an earache, which I need to report about to the sister that doesn't live in this town. If I can remember her number.

First unvote. I'm going to vote:no lynch and maybe go to bed early tonight.

Kiyoko

Kiyoko
Admin

Claims List:

http://kiyokon.tumblr.com

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