A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!]

HOW MANY TIMES DO I HAVE TO MODKILL YOU LUX. HOW MANY.

i CLAIM THIS PAGETOP AS A WARNING TO ALL PLAYERS

Sorry. Not feeling good. As in like, physically (before anyone worries). Gonna eat something and see if I can't get my brain properly functioning again.

She-Ra wrote:Though Tiki missed the vote, and I feel like mafia probably would have reminded him to vote in time?

This is possible, though technically mafia was arguably under zero to little threat for most of the phase since the phase essentially boiled down to 4 - 4.5 pages of content, if that. Most of the posts with high-stakes content and voting came in during the closing hour of the phase, at which time Tiki showed up about 15 minutes before rollover. Bear in mind when he posted, the vote was at 2 on drandahl, 2 on Sammiya, and he just said he forgot about the game and had nothing to offer. Then the wagon stopped at dranstation right after that.

Basically, he could have been poked to show up, but chose not to vote. Who knows? I agree mafia has some strong inclination to prod one another to do something to impact the phase when it's a neck-and-neck vote, so Tiki's one-off post is just kind of... in this no man's land if you look at it from that angle. I'm not saying Tiki's attitude all last phase is conclusively mafia; I am grilling him because I want to know what he's thinking rather than how much he likes Tiny.

She-Ra wrote:Samiya has become maybe a little more suspicious to me, since she was Dran's main suspect, and Dran flipped town.

Is there more reasoning to this? Sammiya could end up being town and drandahl, a town, voted on her. drandahl went down with at least several town votes, and on the chance Lucas is town, that might have been started by a town vote, too. Lucas did kind of seem to throw that vote out there, and I've said before I go back and forth on Lucas a lot during the game. I still have no reason to trust him, for the record. I suppose the reason I'm inclined to give Lucas and ezz some leeway in my immediate lynch reads is because they've overall been fairly contributing.

Either way, my point is: Barring role information drandahl was not able to present--and I'm not sure if there's any indication of that in thread--is there any specific thing that makes drandahl's lynch on Sammiya stand out to you? For the record, he said:

drandahl wrote:That NL train in the end was pretty last-minute. There were several votes piled up in time, which seems weirdly coincidental to me. I'm leaning either Lucas or Sammiya for a lynch right now.

vote: Sammiya

drandahl wrote:Backreading, spending some time collecting info. For now, here's the voting patterns on D2:

High Seraph -> She-Ra
drandahl -> Ezz
(3.5 hours before phase end)
katagi -> Rasei
ezz -> Rasei
TLF -> Rasei
Rasei -> NL
Tiki -> NL
She-Ra -> Rasei
(20m before phase end)
Aeiou -> Rasei
High Seraph -> unvote, NL
Sammiya -> NL
Lux -> NL
TLF -> NL

So in this context, the immediate Lucas and Sammiya NL due to the pressure on Rasei was drandahl's lead. What do you think of this lead and the votes as they pertain to D2? And now, seeing that voting list, how about the votes at the end of D3 from the respective players involved during D2?

She-Ra wrote:Right now it feels like if not Katagi then Lux, and if not either of them, Vowels. Because someone in those three kill attempts is probably maf? But the way Lux and Katagi have been sort of throwing suspicion back and forth at each other is vibing me that it's likely one of the two of them?

Okay, good. Why do you think one person in this pair of three is probably mafia? What do you think of katagi and myself, specifically? In terms of the comments we've directed at one another, the speculation, and the context surrounded both us and the night actions on us? You indicate later that katagi is your main suspect. Why is this? What is it in the arguments for and against her that tips her into your most suspicious?

Also, if your reads on Sammiya rely on drandahl's lynch analysis leading him to vote for her, what do you then think of Lucas, who he also highlighted, as well as Rasei, since she was the one saved by the wagon of NL votes that arguably started with those two?

Thank you, this was a very good post. I hope you enjoy your concert <3 And that you are able to post again whenever you get a chance!

Tiki The Average Troll wrote:Sorry. Not feeling good. As in like, physically (before anyone worries). Gonna eat something and see if I can't get my brain properly functioning again.

Okay, get better, feel better. Take care of yourself. I look forward to your replies when you return.

Not trying to throw stones. Was just looking for an answer, heh. If it came off as frustrated, probably because I wrote it while my body decided to fail me even more than it did yesterday, a day where discussion didn't happen until after I got busy, the quality of my day started to tank, and I started to wonder if I'm getting sick, heh.

Sorry if it was grumpy.

As for, "What if Mafia told Tiki to vote and he blew them off?" I take offense, Lightsong. =P You've only been Maf with me once, but come on, you know I'm more of a team player than that. XD

I'm...pretty sure you had other concerns, but I can't remember them off the bat, AND my lunch break is ending. I'd also quote the post where you discuss Katagi and Vowels I was referring to, but , besides the above, also on mobile, heh.

And feeling a smidge better. My hands are shaking less, anyway. XD

Tiki the Troll wrote:a day where discussion didn't happen until after I got busy

Not trying to bash you over the head with this, and I know you were at work and busy, but you were actively in the thread all phase enough to leave comments on inconsequential things, meanwhile at least some discussion was happening. What are your thoughts on all of that discussion, since you said you needed to back-read around the end of last phase?

Tiki The Average Troll wrote:As for, "What if Mafia told Tiki to vote and he blew them off?"

That's not specifically what the comment was, but I can see how it'd be read that way.

Rather, you showed up when there was a tied vote. Let's do a hypothetical maf!Tiki being told, "Hey, shit's going down in thread near the end, what do you think?" by mafia, and you show up. In this hypothetical, you might elect not to look too scummy by putting the vote one way or the other. If Sammiya were mafia and you were mafia, you'd obviously be inclined to save her (*depending on the alignments of the other votes in thread), so that little connection is interesting. If there were two town, it wouldn't matter who you voted. Regardless of this, you might have had intentions to vote--that we can't honestly know given your comments and the bandwagons seconds later--but then you had no need to do so given the state of the thread.

My point was more that arguably you were around at rollover, even if it wasn't in a capacity to contribute. Your lack of vote does suggest several things I just noted above, however.

Tiki the Troll wrote:I'm...pretty sure you had other concerns, but I can't remember them off the bat, AND my lunch break is ending.

Luxaria wrote:Also, Tiki, so why are you leaning on katagi and Aeiou?

Tiki the Troll wrote:And because of that. reading into the Lux thoughts on Vowels and Katagi, coupled with their votes on Rasei (who tends to be an easy target to mislynch and get away with it), I'm leaning toward one, or both, of them.

Which thoughts of mine, why do you trust them, what are you reading into their votes on D2, and what are your thoughts on them following D3? What elevates them above the other players in your reads? If either or both flip town, who is mafia? Who are you looking at strangely? In that string of votes last phase, which ones seem out of place?

I hope you get to them whenever you get a chance, as well as any comments you might have on other posts from this phase and last, or any comments in general.

im not so sure anymore that lux is maf, because i feel like she's been very pro town, very consistently, although she's a little aggressive in playstyle... frankly we need someone like her to make people actually post apparently

she's the hero this thread needs...

so in terms of other suspicions, I'm still curious about sammiya and im also VERY CONCERNED about Tiki claiming that i contributed to a lynch (dran) that i did not vote for

I'm sad and I don't wanna spec.

That said, for tomorrow's lynch I'll still be looking at katagi and sammie, plus the four people that piled on dran bandwagon within like two minutes of each other. While there definitely isn't all the mafia within those four people because they'd be cautious of last-minute piling, I believe at least one out of Lux, Tiny, She-Ra and Vowels is mafia. I'd say possibly two, but I can see Tiny and She-Ra being unsure and holding off voting until the last minutes simply due to not having as much game experience rather than due to alignment, plus I think She-Ra ended up unvoting anyway. Not that it really made a difference, but I guess it gives me more of a confused town vibe? Idk, I've also believed people were confused newbish town before, but they ended up flipping maf, so.

I'm feeling mildly iffy about Tiki popping in here and there, then forgetting, and then not voting at all, but I feel like as mafia he'd be a bit more careful? Though, at the same time, if he actually forgot, and then realised he'd have to vote and not have enough time, voting for someone anyway & knowing what has been going on would be a clear sign of being brought up to speed by teammates, so I can see why he'd act this way even if he was mafia, tbh. Unsure, but I think we have scummier fish to fry rn.

I also still stand by my earlier conclusion that one out of katagi and Lux is probably maf, but not more than one. I'm currently far more willing to believe in Lux because she has been helpful, and I have seen her do the whole talk-to-yourself-in-thread-to-solve-problems thing which I'm fairly certain she has never done as mafia, so my primary suspect would probably be katagi.


So, in short: katagi > sammie > tiny = she-ra = vowels > lux = tiki

I'm currently least inclined to vote Rasei based on her in-thread reactions last phase + having reread a bit. I'm on the fence about Lucas, but he seems pro-town enough.

THERE ARE YOU HAPPY LUX, I HIT THE POST REPLY BUTTON

katagi wrote:although she's a little aggressive in playstyle

Sorry, I know I can be annoying and aggressive. I know you guys will be irritated with me and maybe even find it rude or unnecessary and I will not fault you for that, and I try to be polite and thank people and provide something for them to work with. But considering there's a strong chance the game ends tonight or tomorrow in worst case scenario, I want to see us talk. We can't rely on the fallback of role claims to save us.

katagi wrote:so in terms of other suspicions, I'm still curious about sammiya

katagi wrote:i'll be back from work well before rollover (~9h from this post), so: here's a randomly selectede poke: vote: sammiya

katagi wrote:i havne't played with sammiya in forever so i don't know if her quietness is still typical or not, but typically when people don't respond to my fos (even if it's a semi-RNG inactivity-based poke), it is a little iffy for me

Your original vote on her was an activity check, and your follow-up noted that your FoS extended insofar as her lack of response to your prod of a vote. Do you have any curiosities about her other than the quietness and being the other end of the vote options last phase? You voiced some suspicions on others during the phase which felt more concrete than an activity check. Was there a reason you stuck on Sammiya despite this? Additionally, who are you reading now as probably mafia? What do you think of the bandwagon on drandahl around the end of the phase as it relates to votes and statements in the previous phases?

I agree with your comment on Tiki, however, and I would like for him to respond to that.

Thanks for the post ;w;!

ezzelin wrote: I believe at least one out of Lux, Tiny, She-Ra and Vowels is mafia. I'd say possibly two, but I can see Tiny and She-Ra being unsure and holding off voting until the last minutes simply due to not having as much game experience rather than due to alignment, plus I think She-Ra ended up unvoting anyway.

This is a good point. I feel like there's a reasonable chance that at least one mafia is in that last group, and I think it's either Tiny or Vowels based off of thread evidence and gut. Mainly, She-Ra just feels more pro-town, and Tiny goes back and forth for me. Vowels is a complex matter that changes depending on the weather outside, insofar as it pertains to her receiving a kill, there being a convert, and all the speculation you might have between there and back coupled with her own posts and votes. She is in this awkward position in terms of voting given her timezone, as is Tiny (and even Ace), so I try to make allowances for such things.

ezzelin wrote:Though, at the same time, if he actually forgot, and then realised he'd have to vote and not have enough time, voting for someone anyway & knowing what has been going on would be a clear sign of being brought up to speed by teammates, so I can see why he'd act this way even if he was mafia, tbh.

This is a good counterpoint to previous mentions in the thread. I am not sure if I will pursue him as my primary choice next phase, however I will continue to grill him because I very much want to pursue this inconsistency between his words and actions, from my perspective at least. One other thing is... I haven't said this outright because this might sound bizarre and hokey spec, but if he were not mafia at the start of the game then I can actually see mafia recruiting Tiki because they might have had some people on the team that felt bad for him after Symphonic Mafia. Don't put anything into this, but I can see it being possible and a thing the members of this board might do. It would also explain the shift between his posting styles of just, "Here's a comment or two about my activity, I have no reads, I'm out." To being around in thread, making a lot of light comments, showing up at rollover, but not actually pursuing anything.

ezzelin wrote:I also still stand by my earlier conclusion that one out of katagi and Lux is probably maf, but not more than one. I'm currently far more willing to believe in Lux because she has been helpful, and I have seen her do the whole talk-to-yourself-in-thread-to-solve-problems thing which I'm fairly certain she has never done as mafia, so my primary suspect would probably be katagi.

Main question: What, in particular, leads to your conclusion that one of the two of us must be mafia? You've probably underscored it in the last phase, but I want to see it written again with regards to the interactions, votes, and progression of speculation since that point in time. What is it about katagi that is so unerringly mafia between the two of us? Or is it mostly just that you've decided I'm probably not mafia, which means katagi has to be mafia?

ezzelin wrote:I'm currently least inclined to vote Rasei based on her in-thread reactions last phase + having reread a bit. I'm on the fence about Lucas, but he seems pro-town enough.

Rasei's reactions are interesting. She was the primary lynch on D2 and got saved by a swing of NL votes that began with Lucas and Sammiya. Here, Sammiya was the other lynch target, and Lucas led the vote on drandahl. drandahl flipped town, Rasei voted drandahl to tie it between Sammiya and drandahl, and then when more votes came in on drandahl she pulled off of it.

It's an interesting interplay of voting, hesitation, and last minute inclinations between the handful of them, on top of Lucas' early phase votes that he tossed out and let sit there. So with this said, what in particular makes you inclined to think Lucas is town? I agree with the coming point that just because he made the first vote on a town doesn't make him mafia, and I agree that he has offered a lot of speculation and contributed and generally been helpful. But to the point, is there a concrete thing you can point to and say, "Lucas feels pro-town"? Or is it just a vibe?

Similar questions regarding Rasei, though her speculation has been more in self-defense or commentary on the sudden direction of lynches.

Edit:

ezzelin wrote:So, in short: katagi > sammie > tiny = she-ra = vowels > lux = tiki

Where do Rasei and Lucas fit in? By your following comments, I'm guessing they're after myself and Tiki, or are you simply unable to place them? If you had to place them, where would your gut put them?

ezzelin wrote:THERE ARE YOU HAPPY LUX, I HIT THE POST REPLY BUTTON

Spoiler:

Luxaria wrote:Main question: What, in particular, leads to your conclusion that one of the two of us must be mafia?

Thread interaction, reactions, N1 situation and certain claimed actions.

Luxaria wrote:What is it about katagi that is so unerringly mafia between the two of us? Or is it mostly just that you've decided I'm probably not mafia, which means katagi has to be mafia?

Like I said in the post you just quoted, I'm more inclined to believe you are town than her based on your spec and in-thread behaviour. Additionally, I already posted about having a gut feeling about katagi back on D1. She's been orange on my spreadsheet, and only temporarily changed to yellow.

Luxaria wrote:But to the point, is there a concrete thing you can point to and say, "Lucas feels pro-town"? Or is it just a vibe?

His spec and my gut feeling. I'm not going to go dig through them rn to point out what exactly. I know I have him marked blue on my spreadsheet, and I know I don't mark people that way for no reason. I also tend to trust my gut feeling a lot because it tends to be rather accurate.

Luxaria wrote:Similar questions regarding Rasei, though her speculation has been more in self-defense or commentary on the sudden direction of lynches.

She's blue on my spreadsheet. He reactions to votes on her, when reread at a later date, plus her calling out to dran to talk and some other reactions speak town!Rasei to me.

I think I got all of your questions? Let me know if I missed any.

hey i'm home and I'm gonna write a littl ebit more in a sec after i order chinese food but

my sammie suspicions mostly arise from her reaction to the activity-poke-vote, and i will fish for more info / moree substancee to post after i purchase some Dragon & Phoenix for my face to consume

katagi wrote:l in terms of other suspicions,  I'm still curious about sammiya and im also VERY CONCERNED about Tiki claiming that i contributed to a lynch (dran) that i did not vote for

You didn't? When I tried to look at the votes when I had a moment this morning, thought I saw you had.

As for what Lux said that made me think of you and Aeiou, I had to look that up too, because I had COMPLETELY forgotten. I thought there was more to it, but I guess the only thing was about Mafia targeting their own bulletproof members to try and clear them. That was it.

As for anything else, I honestly have no idea. I started this game in a bad state, recovered, then quickly feel into another KIND of bad state. I've not been able to follow a single thing, and, in retrospect, probably should have had someone come and take me place. Now the rate the ratio changed, and with more work days scheduled for me ahead, I'll probably be a waste of space until I'm either picked off, and/or the game ends, heh.

The only thing I'm one hundred percent sure about, and WILL NOT change my mind on (pending another conversion), is that Resell is Town.

That is all.

no worries! I DID, after all, say something like 'i can see your point re: dran' to whoever... it was... that i was replying to when i said that...

ok i ordered chinesee hang on

rollover may be a touch late because i have dodgeball tonight! please make sure all actions are PM'd to me by 9pm est.