A Perfectly Average Game [Mafia Win!]

god ok its better to vote than, not, so, i'll change this later if more happens, but

vote: rasei

Rasei IV
No Lynch II
She-ra I
ezzelin I

ezzelin vs. Rasei
Five vs.
Luxaria vs.
High Seraph vs. She-ra
She-Ra vs. Rasei
Tiki The Troll vs. No Lynch
Katagi vs. Rasei
Rasei vs. No Lynch
drandahl vs. ezzelin
Tinylightsflash vs. Rasei
Aeiou vs.
Sammiya vs.


shit, I made my vote tally graphic too big

Ummm. This isn't the first time I mention I had an idea. After the first rollover, I sykped Ninfia to ask questions. Like asking *This was cut because of roles* and if the ratio was correct. I even posted something in the thread when I got a response back stating that the ratio is indeed correct.

I haven't gotten any real scum reads yet.
Why is claiming = to mafia? Personally, right now, I think it's a good thing to do. I know people have reasons they aren't voting. My second action didn't turned up anything on Sam.

You guys know I couldn't have sent the kill in on Night Zero. I am town.

Not sending in the kill on N0 doesn't automatically mean you're Town... and honestly, I'm getting more maf vibes than not from your last post, Rasei :/a That was a fairly defensive reaction, and at the same time you don't provide any scum reads, not even gut feelings, or anything at all.

Unrelated, I'm glad you got your glasses, katagi, also seconding the request for glasses pics!! o v o

I also already said during the previous phase that I have an idea which would kinda explain why five would encourage target claiming, but I kinda really doubt we all have the same idea, and even more so I'm fairly sure at least one of the people claiming they understand is mafia trying to blend in.

My list of people I'd vote for at this point hasn't really changed, I don't wanna spread votes further, and Rasei is one of the people on my "will vote for" list, so vote: Rasei.

I gotta go to work now so while I was going to sit tight and see what else people said I'm just gonna make a wild stab in the dark and vote Rasei.

Rasei wrote:Ezz, the reason why I didn't want Tiki gone is I want to see his leadership actions from last game again. *Totally Meta*

Can't blame ya.
Who doesn't like watching a good, ol's fashioned train wreck?

...
I didn't have any real fucking scum reads yet. I do know we have at least three stunners and more than one big.

I'm voting: No lynch because town hasn't lost anyone yet. The only people I will not vote for is Aeiou, Katagi, and Lux. It is a bad idea for town to kill me.

Actually, since we've had no deaths, I don't feel so bad doing a Vote: No Lynch. At least for now.

hm okay. I plan on doing stuff tonight and I don't want to accidentally miss rollover because I'm making food or whatever (that happens to me a lot ok?).

Even though Lucas has voted me twice now I'm kind of not inclined to vote him. I guess it's just a gut read but he's been one of the more active people and idk, his posts give me a pro-town vibe. I don't usually go by vibes but we don't have a lot else and ahg. Am I doing this right?
Also not inclined to vote any of the kill targets ATM since they could feasibly all be from maf so that rules out katagi, vowels and lux. Though I'm more sure on vowels and lux, I think. Uhm. Dran I have like, no opinions on =/ but not inclined to vote for now, same with ezz (I'm not getting a maffy vibe but I really don't know you people so my vibez detector for any of you is probably gonna be pretty unreliable...)

ASHDJK. This is hard. I guess I've narrowed my choices down to Tiki, Rasei and Tiny. Tiny is new and even though this makes me jealous because she is now Shiny and Cute and I am tossed aside :'( I am not inclined to vote her yet. Tiki I... I just feel sentimental toward tiki from last game I should leave my sentiments at the door I know but since Rasei already has the votes I think for now I'll bandwagon and vote: Rasei

And I'll try to check in once or twice before rollover in case new information comes up but yeah. idk. just an average stream of consciousness post for y'all up in here for now.

edit: oh hell I forgot about five and sammy (don't hate me!) five I'm not inclined to vote, given her posts so far, and sammy is in the "I literally got nothing" category so I guess my decision on rasei still stands. Fwiw I do think tiki and rasei are making the most suspicious posts so far just because they've both been either defensive or claiming actions but without really speculating much =/

Fine if you guys want to kill, whatever.

I'm pretty sure the jail is mafia through, after think logically about what I know, what I believe, and by the rollover.

Sorry, not answering the redirect question for a reason.

I'll wait a bit more to vote to see how things go for the moment/see what other people vote before making my final decision.

I'm trying to get into the swing again, but if the gimmick of this game is what I think it is, it'll be a bit of a headache.

Let's please not NL folks. If the game is vig-bulletproof balanced, or anything similar to this, we're losing our initiative.

(how do these always end up being so long... no tl;dr because most comments are just addressed to individual players, gomen)

Tinylightsflash wrote:Super duper rookie thoughts but if there was a town vigilante would they attempt to kill someone straight out with so little information? Or was the N0 rollover a whole lot of information for a mafia game.

It was a middling amount of information for a 12-player game. We saw two stuns, a jail, and a kill attempt, which does get us something to work off of, and 1/3rd of the players in the game were mentioned. It's possible a town vigilante might use their power N1 if they felt threatened (a player that's used to dying a lot) or had reason to believe they might not get another chance at using it. Alternatively, Katagi's posts were a bit unusual in content, so I can see the potential leap of faith a town might take in that case.

ezzelin wrote:I'm inclined to think one of them was a townvig. Firstly, because I'm not sure how likely it is in this game size for maf to have a vig - and if they did, it would probably be VERY limited, in which case I honestly doubt they'd shoot it off so early

I might get into your theorized JOAT/roulette/copy roles later, but for now... It might not be unlikely for mafia to have a vigilante given that there have been three protects. Either that's absurd prediction dashed in with a mix of luck on the behalf of town, or there's other protective means at play, which might warrant more firepower on the side of mafia. This said, the presence of a vigilante kill so suddenly does seem unusual if it were to come from mafia. It would mean either Katagi was NK and I was maf!vig, or Katagi was maf!vig and I was NK. This seems like a bit of an odd arrangement given how the previous day's reads and remarks rang out.

It's possible Katagi's hints on vigilante-knowingness might've made her a target for the vigilante shot, be it from town or mafia. Which would put me as the NK. Katagi being NK still isn't unprecedented with Aeiou being the first target, but, if I may, I honestly do not think it likely for town to have used a vigilante on me on N1, so then that means mafia would have had to shoot me. Thus I think the probable scenarios in order of most likely to least likely are:

1. Luxaria received NK / Katagi received town!vig
2. Luxaria received NK / Katagi received maf!vig
3. Luxaria received maf!vig / Katagi received NK

Which is more or less in line with your reasoning, I think. I do believe there might be a greater chance of various kill powers than you describe, ezz, solely given the presence of three failed kills. Whether there was a protect, copied protect, JOAT protect, roulette protect, bulletproof, or killproof, or something else and any combination thereof, ultimately three kills have been dodged, with at least two presumably coming from mafia. I guess we'll see what we might be dealing with after another night rollover, though.

high seraph wrote:I'd just like to add this to the discussion: Five is likely town, the jailer is likely mafia. Given her previous remarks during the night phase about claiming actions, I can totally see how mafia would feel intimidated and want to prevent her from acting during the phase. I had an idea on why Fivey would think that claiming targets should be useful, but her posts after rollover had made me rly confused again, so idk what to really think. But yeah, I'm gonna be treating Five as cleared and the jailer as mafia for the rest of the game, and u can't stop me.

Can you explain why you think the jailer is likely mafia in the N1 rollover? This might be part of something you said at another point, but I want to make sure I'm on the same page as you because right now I have no 100% cleared reasons to trust any of the controlling effects we've seen insofar. What do you think of the stun on you, for that matter, since you're saying the jail came from mafia in the same phase? Also, I can see a town!jailer going for Five if they were really skeptical of her comments/strategy last phase, which a number of us were, yourself included to some extent.

Five wrote:I am almost certain that the mafia in this setup have the ability to make additional kills on top of the NK in some form or another. I am not inclined to believe that the mafia has a dedicated vigilante role among them. The ratio is already pretty rough for the mafia and we've seen three failed kills already. I somehow don't think the number of failed kills is a coincidence. I also don't think a town-sided player would try to kill someone so early.

I do think the second stun on n0 was due to JOAT/roulette/blind copy, as suggested by ezzelin. However, I think there's a bit more to it than that and I don't think it was due to a roulette or copy and I feel so strongly about this that I am going to simply disregard the possibility for the time being. If I'm wrong, I'll eat dirt or something. I dunno. I'll worry about that later.

I agree with everything that was said here, though I do think it might not be unreasonable for mafia to have attempted a vig shot N1, but I would put it low on the list of possibilities. As I said a moment ago, actually.

She-Ra wrote:also I resent that I've apparently lost cute newbie status :(

You are super cute newbie to me, still. <3 I mean that purple, though... hng.

Sammiya wrote:I figure there's a pretty high chance of a redirecting role out there in the long run.

Is there any particular reason why you think this? Though I realize you also said, "Sorry, not answering the redirect question for a reason." not long after, so.

Rasei wrote:I'm pretty sure the jail is mafia through

As I asked Lucas, why so?


Okay, throwing this up in a moment, but. I'm not going to go in too hard on people that haven't summoned up many reads--at least for this phase--solely because we've had an unusual start with three failed kills and a lot of "hinting", which is largely my fault. I will start looking more into this next day phase, so I hope to hear much more from Tiki and Tiny, for that matter. Do either of you have any opinions on which players stand out? This can go for anyone, but most others have said things.

My main suspicion on She-Ra would have been related to her being low-spec and quoting and agreeing with many things--not quite parroting, but reminiscent. But she's been more active now and provided some thoughs, so she's down the scale a bit. So let's make a list. Everyone loves those.

Not going to look at right now given rollovers
Aeiou, Katagi

Willing to keep around for now, but have no reason to think they're town
Five, ezzelin

Curious; they're middle-ground for me
Sammiya, (Lucas)

Want to hear more from
Tiny, Tiki

No qualms lynching right now
(Lucas), Rasei, drandahl, She-Ra

Of these four, I'm not sure which I want to lynch the least. This would have been Lucas earlier in the phase, but some of She-Ra's more recent posts pleased me to some extent--going to review them again, though. Sammiya arguably is like Lucas in that she's half in this group, half not, but I want to monitor her responses a bit more before I make a better decision. Lucas gets the half-and-half because while I like his high contribution, he's at a position where some of his comments have been firm enough that lynching him does reveal some things, and nothing ties him to town for me right now. Five and ezzelin I might choose to go after next day phase, but for now I want to watch them a bit more closely (in all kinds of ways ~) to see if I can understand their angle.

I don't have a strong feeling about Rasei one way or another. It's been a while since I've been in a position where I had to seriously evaluate her in a thread (beyond just process-of-elimination like Symphonic mafia), and when I used to do this I could typically get a good feel for her alignment. Right now I'm not entirely sure. I'd put her at about 56% Town to 44% mafia. I'm not sure what else she might be able to comment on. Rasei, if you had to pick one or two people you'd rather lynch, who would it be? I notice you favored no lynch over voting on She-Ra or ezzelin who were within range of you to some extent. Why is this?

I'm going to post this while I think on a vote a little more. I don't want to put a fourth vote onto Rasei just yet, but I don't want a third vote on no lynch, even if I still want to try testing my theory. Between She-Ra and ezzelin, I'd probably pick She-Ra, but let me re-read her posts first.

I have a theory about town roles I CANNOT talk about because part of it could be counted as claiming my role. Part of that theory is about stunners are ALL town, therefor the jail would be mafia.

I'm halfway leaning on voting Dran because he doesn't want no lynch to happen. I'm willing to vote She-ra or Ezz.

Oh, I missed She-Ra's vote on Rasei, making it four.

Hmmm.

Some of Rasei's comments make me actually a little hesitant to lynch her. Particularly:

Rasei wrote:I didn't have any real fucking scum reads yet. I do know we have at least three stunners and more than one big.

I assume "big" is auto-corrected "vig". And I believe she is right, also, for the record. That doesn't preclude her from being mafia in the same vein that none of Sammiya's comments, a middle-ground target for me, preclude her from being mafia. But I am curious. I am a very curious person. So in a way seeing her flip would be interesting in that regard.

Problem is my alternative votes for Rasei are ezzelin, She-ra, and No Lynch, and I am not keen on any of those too, too much, though I would possibly lynch She-Ra, though she's 50/50 for me right now and I'm not sold on that lynch either.

This is partly my own fault for not being around to vote sooner.