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Tote Valley Tales: Forget-Me-Not Festival | THE END | Town Win!

+15
katagi
Vanilla Ace
Aeiou
Five
Entelechy
angel★
ezzelin
Tiki The Troll
Rasei
nautilus
plotstickers
Kiyoko
Luxaria
Ninfia
Mr. Gerbear
19 posters

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Mr. Gerbear

Mr. Gerbear

Tote Valley Tales: Forget-Me-Not Festival | THE END | Town Win! - Page 28 6qkxX3y



Ding-dong! Ding-dong! The town bell chimed, signaling that the day was about to end.

Tote Valley Tales: Forget-Me-Not Festival | THE END | Town Win! - Page 28 PRpeZBw

"The Bazaar is closed for the day!" said the mayor. "Hopefully we don't fall into any more disaster. Remain vigilant, everyone!"

And with that, everyone made their way home...

-----

Please send your actions in!
You may use as many items as you have in your inventories.
Please refer to page 1 for the effect priority list.
Rollover is in 22 hours and 35 minutes from this post.

(any actions sent before this but after i sent you your items are a-ok ; sorry for the delay! lots of stuff happened lmao)

Entelechy

Entelechy

If any mail was sent, would we have received it by now?

Mr. Gerbear

Mr. Gerbear

Yes everything should be sent out unless messages were eaten or I overlooked something....

nautilus

nautilus

All of the following players have made explicit hints towards their roles or abilities, and have yet to be counterclaimed in-thread in any way, nor do any overlap:
Luxaria
Kiyoko
katagi
ezzelin*
high seraph
Entelechy**

People who have not made any apparent or obvious hints about their abilities
angelstar
plotstickers
Aeiou
drandahl

*Technically, ezz could be not the role that everyone's assuming she is, but if she wasn't I'd figure she'd speak up when Kiyoko mentioned her, plus if she were mafia I'm not sure mafia would go immediately for the temporary paint on D1 because of how expensive it was anyways + the evidence about her role made Rasei's claim extremely weak, which led to her lynch
**Yeah, I'm positive I know Entelechy's role.

One thing that baffles me about the smaller list of Angel/Plot/Rasei is that Rasei was aware both pieces of scrap paper had been bought; if Angel is mafia, this implies that mafia either attempted to buy both pieces of scrap paper, or Rasei misinterpreted purchasing/lied about how many scrap pieces of paper were in play/could be bought and just happened to be somehow right? I do want to hear from both Angel and Plot though in general, but I'd expand the net out to those four.

Kiyoko

Kiyoko
Admin

I WILL DO MY BEST NOT TO DIE AND LET PEOPLE DOWN, ALTHOUGH THAT IS KIND OF NOT UP TO ME.

I MAY HAVE TO ABANDON MY ORIGINAL PLAN OF BUYING A BILLION EGGS, THOUGH, WHICH IS DISAPPOINTING

RE: VOWELS, VOWELS BUYING THE BINOCS EVERY SINGLE PHASE MAKES ME LESS INCLINED TO SUSPECT VOWELS TBH

http://kiyokon.tumblr.com

nautilus

nautilus

Kiyoko, if you're somehow, inexplicably mafia, i will cry. Am I right on your role at least

Yeah, Aeiou's the player I suspect the least in that list for several reasons, but afaik no one's expressed suspicion over her binocular purchases (which the survivalist would be able to do) and why would mafia buy an infinite amount of binoculars

I posted elsewhere though that of the unknown, expensive items from the last few days that have been unclaimed with the exception of the second vulnerary, one is guaranteed to be in the hands of town bc mafia only got their money boost today & combined all three of the items are 18G, which is more than the mafia's initial 15G

I guess we just have to wait for Plot/Angel to post with their opinions on things, because who knows what Plot even tried to buy D1 and what Angel bought the last few days

Kiyoko

Kiyoko
Admin

OH YEAH YOU WERE RIGHT. I FIGURE I WAS PRETTY OBVIOUS THO

I ACTUALLY ASSUME NINFIA BOUGHT THE VULNERISADJFDF ON BOTH DAYS SHE WAS ALIVE, AND I THINK LUXARIA CLAIMED THE SECOND VULKDFKSDFJ SO THOSE ARE ACCOUNTED FOR. I KNOW THE FISHING ROD ISN'T ACCOUNTED FOR; ARE THERE ANY OTHERS?

http://kiyokon.tumblr.com

Luxaria

Luxaria

Hmmm. I do have a thought on the second vulnerary due to mechanics, but there's no sense bringing it up right now. Might just be safest to assume Ninfia had it, though.

I think only the fishing rod on D1 went unclaimed? I think you claimed the rope, and Mitsu claimed the temporary paint? So there's not many other big ticket purchases with Aeiou getting the binoculars, and Katagi having the honey stolen from her. Edit: And my wine. =w=

Hmm...

I guess that's all of them? I forgot what has been claimed from D2 purchases tbh. Would need to check the claims list.

If plot and angel aren't the mafia, I guess we'll cross that road when we get there and when they can reply in more depth.

I checked way too much of the thread earlier to do some process of elimination, and some things felt like they didn't line up how I imagined, but still works out overall, I think. I see roughly 2-3 permutations for the obvious town setups, but there are a few crazier possibilities that only come into play if plot and angel aren't mafia. The only thing weird re: those two for me right now is that angel had the scrap paper, iirc? And Rasei said she failed to buy any. Obviously we have no idea when and where she was lying, specifically, with her actions, but claiming she couldn't get the scrap paper would put her in a bad position early on if we started to analyze things. It's possible mafia tried to buy both and only got one? It's not an unreasonable item for mafia to prioritize. It's cheap and also informs them a bit about what town's up to, and technically denies town some information.

I had another thought, also. This is perhaps a bit obvious at this point, but due to the priority system, I wouldn't be surprised if town players--particularly shop owners--almost all got items they desired. They'd know which items were theirs right away and would have an easy purchase decision. Mafia, however, would have to sit down to talk as a group about what to do. Barring one person having the presence of mind to immediately send in a list of purchases upon being dubbed mafia, and then mafia deciding to go with that list later on... but then this also says this mafia member might be squandering a lot of their cash before consulting the others.

So, anyway, there's that.

Kiyoko

Kiyoko
Admin

WHENEVER I'M MAFIA, I MAKE SURE THAT THE WHOLE TEAM HAS THEIR ACTIONS PLANNED AND ABLE TO BE SENT OUT EXACTLY ON ROLLOVER. MAFIA IS USUALLY IN FACT MORE LIKELY THAN TOWN TO HAVE THEIR INTENDED ACTIONS PLANNED OUT MULTIPLE PHASES IN ADVANCE. THE FACT THAT I WAS ABLE TO NINJA RASEI TO THOSE D1 PURCHASES IMPLIES A LESS COORDINATED MAFIA, THOUGH, SINCE I SENT MY SHOPPING LIST IN AT 10AM PST

http://kiyokon.tumblr.com

Luxaria

Luxaria

Well, I mean, the game started on a day phase where we could purchase. I was referring exclusively to D1 purchases, not D2 or D3. ;w; At that point, town players seeing their PM would likely already be ready to purchase, or had pre-existing notions of item purchases.

I think even if everyone had plans in advance, it'd still be typical on D1 for mafia to want to discuss things before making a group decision like that? Thus why town would likely have priority D1 on all of their items over any mafia trying to get them, too.

Luxaria

Luxaria

unrelated, whenever I follow up posts from both you and Mitsu, my text feels so goddamn gigantic. It makes me so self-conscious. ;w;

Luxaria

Luxaria

Actually, possibly JK, I just realized there was a bit of a delay between PMs being sent and Day 1 start. For some reason I thought they were basically at the same time, meaning mafia would have had little time to coordinate in that particular instance.

ezzelin

ezzelin

Out of confirmed D1 purchases, only the fishing rod has not been accounted for.

Out of all players, only me, plot and five did not claim what we have purchased.
Five is dead, and since we now know for a fact that the fishing rod has been used (since I caught a gently used one with my crab trap), and that five was town, I don't think they were the one who bought it. (Buying it D1 and using it N0 on a random person? Doesn't sound pro-town in the slightest.)

Which leaves us with me and plot. Because I bought the crab trap, I couldn't have bought the fishing rod, since the crab trap is 4g.

Which means plot was the one who bought the fishing rod D1 and stole katagi's honey.*

ETA: *unless it was Rasei, actually. could have lied about the unlimited stock purchases.

plotstickers

plotstickers

Holy crap, a lot of things happened since my last post. I got home at phase end after an hour long drive, had dinner, and then... passed out, lol. I'm heading to work and plan to meet co-workers and go shopping, so it'll be another busy day for me. Thankfully it's a night phase... Did you guys have any questions for me that aren't buried under millions of pages?

nautilus

nautilus

@Plot - Where were you on the day of today

No, for real though, do you have any information on purchases that you could give us (whether or not you know certain items are in play or what you bought)? Right now the current movement in the thread is that people who are the least transparent about their purchases are probably mafia, and hello, daughter, you haven't told us what you said you bought re: drandahl's question to you.

Presumably if you've already used whatever you bought, keeping it secret doesn't even matter and it shouldn't be a problem to talk about in the night phase

Right now your adopted brother is looking more ♥ in my eyes than you

e2: Angel technically also could have bought the fishing rod, because the only purchase she's made so far in this game is scrap paper and as town or mafia that still leaves enough D1 for fishing rod, but I digress. Who has this rod

e3: Angel if you're reading this my questions to Plot also apply because all we know about you is that you bought a piece of paper!!!!!

tbh I'm wondering if mafia did try to squander immediately, hence the adjustment, since Rasei knew the rope was in play as well (implying that she tried to buy it, unless In The Darkest Timeline Kiyoko is mafia); if mafia bought the rope that'd put them at the bare minimum required for auction bids. I think this is a poor avenue of speculation to go down because it makes me feel awkward to try and reverse engineer host decisions, but it's something I've been thinking about.

e4: I also agree with Kiyoko that the mafia seems very disorganized or is afk right now, since I feel like there were better targets in the town to brutally murder with a bomb... ???? Over RNGing it???

The only reason why I can see Ace dying is because Ace ran the shop with the lowest number of sales, apparently, and as a result losing the ability to snag his cash isn't very important to mafia, but given that Rasei tried to vague claim at least one shop that I felt most people knew the owner of before she went down (Ace's), idk how likely this is.

e5: I agree with ezz that it's unlikely Five bought the fishing rod - furthermore, Five ran the shop with the least expensive items (scrap paper, tin cans), so I'm not sure how big her cash flow would be, tbh

e6:

Items for sale on Day 1:

x1 - Binoculars (Aeiou, used on Luxaria)
x1 - Rope (Kiyoko, used on high seraph)

x2 - Cans
x2 - the trap thing (Ace x1, ezzelin x1, used and received fishing rod on N2)
x2 - Scrap Paper (Kiyoko x1, angelstar x1, both used)
x1 - Fishing Rod (In play according to katagi, unclaimed)
x1 - Wine (Luxaria, used on Entelechy)
x2 - Vinegar (Luxaria x1, used on Ninfia N1; nautilus x1, used on Luxaria on N2)
x2 - Magic 8 Ball (Ace x1, drandahl x1 - drandahl's has been used)

x1 - Vulnerary (assumed purchased by Ninfia)  
x2 - Flowers
x1 - Honey (In play according to katagi and Ace, originally bought by katagi but stolen)
x1 - Temporary Paint (nautilus, used on katagi and Aeiou N2)

x2 - Signposts

Day 1 Purchases
*Mafia starts with 15G.
*Town starts with 8G. Cannot use funds from potential sales to buy things the same phase.
*Neutral has 0G at start.

Kiyoko - 8G of purchases, Scrap Paper and Rope, (1) egg that is not wrinklerspawn i hope
Luxaria - 8G of purchases, Wine and Vinegar
Ninfia - 8G of purchases on Vulnerary (assumed, probably possible)
Entelechy - 8G of purchases, all on stationery

Ace - 6G of purchases, Magic 8 Ball and Crab Trap
Rasei - 2G of purchases, apparently bought a strawberry and an egg
Plotstickers - Bought unknown items
high seraph - Claimed to have not bought anything
drandahl - 3G of purchases, bought Magic 8 Ball, Apple
katagi - 6G of purchases, bought Honey

Aeiou - 5G of purchases, bought Binoculars
angelstar - 2G of purchases, bought Scrap Paper
ezzelin - 4G of purchases, bought Crab Trap
nautilus - 8G of purchases, bought Temporary Paint and Vinegar

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