crossroads ✕ town win

OvO We don't all necessarily think Gerry, Tiki, and Angel are DEFINITELY MAFIA, we all just agree that they had been very quiet at the time of writing up our lists. I doubt all of them are mafia--possibly none of them are mafia.

(I do think it's interesting that Ezzelin just proposed the exact same unlikely mafia gambit that I did, despite Kiyo already dismissing it as completely unlikely (and me dismissing it as completely unlikely when I said it), Ezzelin is also kind of in the middle ground between suspicious and No Opinion for me right now.)

quack wrote:I normally consider Lux's output and insight to be on par with Kiyoko, Five, ezzelin and Mitsu,

Hmm.

Hello I am here again and backreading. Kiyoko told me to make my 1337 post something memorable so I made it a dog gif. Will edit this post with spec or make a new one later

Cure wrote:(I do think it's interesting that Ezzelin just proposed the exact same unlikely mafia gambit that I did, despite Kiyo already dismissing it as completely unlikely (and me dismissing it as completely unlikely when I said it), Ezzelin is also kind of in the middle ground between suspicious and No Opinion for me right now.)

I wrote it down when I thought of it as I was catching up on the thread earlier, and posted regardless of the fact that I noticed you coming up with the exact same theory as I read further, because if it's anything I've learned about playing, it's that even if I feel like I'm at least half-parroting, I should dump down my thoughts.

Cure wrote:OvO We don't all necessarily think Gerry, Tiki, and Angel are DEFINITELY MAFIA, we all just agree that they had been very quiet at the time of writing up our lists. I doubt all of them are mafia--possibly none of them are mafia.

I can't speak for everyone else on those lists, but I get the feeling that, in this time of info sharing, we're all just kinda like:



XD

Hello, after the day's proceedings I have made a list of my current suspicions. Descending order of least to most suspicious. I may go back and reread the thread for hints and clues, but I'll probably wait until after Katagi flips an alignment (also I am lazy and probably won't want to anyway). If you would like to know why you are where you are, feel free to ask and I might tell you.

➳ Crypsis
➳ Aeiou
➳ Five*
➳ high seraph*
➳ Cure
➳ chinomi
➳ Kiyoko**
➳ nautilus
➳ Ace
➳ angelstar
➳ Ninfia***
➳ Rasei
➳ Luxaria
➳ Tiki The Troll
➳ Entelechy
➳ ezzelin
➳ Mr. Gerbear
➳ katagi


*I trust Five because she seems to have some reason to trust me beyond gut reads as she has been very adamant about not voting Me or Lucas since early on in D1. For this reason, I am also not suspicious of Lucas.

**Entirely based on how she reacted to me acting on her.

***My action on N0 was tampered with. When I am tampered with, my first assumption is NELFIA HAD SOMETHING TO DO WITH IT.

Wtf cure why am I second most suspicious :(

why me fry me :/

Entelechy wrote:Ezzelin has also been less active then usual, but I think she has had good thoughts and insight, but it does intrigue me that her list is of people who are all so different that the other strong spec player's. I would hate it if Mitsu, Five, and Cure were just taking us for a damn ride.

I don't think my lists are really different though? I only posted my not-scummy lists, though, so maybe you misread that as my suspicions? idk I did kinda phrase that oddly perhaps :Va

lists tho:

nautilus wrote:Given stuff that's come up this phase, I wouldn't vote Five, Lucas, Raie, and Kiyoko

Cure wrote:Other people Not On My Scummy List include Saki of the Cryptids, Five and probably other people.

Kiyoko wrote:So for this reason I'm just straight up not suspicious of Raie, who I know would be more tricky about it as maf, or Mitsu, who is conservative as hell and would never allow for two drums in a row.

I'm also for in-thread reasons (e.g. hints and stuff) not currently suspicious of Crypsis, chinomi, high seraph, Five, Vowels, Ninfia or Ace,

ezzelin wrote:I'm not suspicious of Saki, Lucas and Five; and tentatively willing to trust Cure, Kiyoko and nautilus (all in order of least suspicious to more).

Mr. Gerbear wrote:Wtf cure why am I second most suspicious :(

oshwott is the worst starter


Nah just kidding!

It's partly this comment

Gerry <3 wrote:Like. Idk what to even say? Or hint at? I'm just kinda like.... scared some maf's gonna find out exactly what I do and take me out because I am of Benefit To Town and tbqh I wouldn't be surprised if I had already screwed some of their plans up but I have no idea of how to tell........

It's really easy for mafia to claim a pro-town/useful ability that they don't want to hint at to get town off their back and keep laying low. I've done it in the past, I'm sure pretty much everyone has in the past.

The other thing that I thought was interesting was when Katagi was getting piled on and you posted before backreading, you didn't hop on the Very Obviously Set Bandwagon that would be easy to gauge just from skimming a couple posts. I think most town people would drop a vote and then backread, whereas mafia is much more likely to read thoroughly before voting to see if they can salvage their teammate by voting someone else or if there's maybe another course of action to take.

I don't think either of these comments definitely make you mafia, but most of my reads on other people are pretty null right now. I am definitely not saying LYNCH GERRY WE GOTTA KILL HIM OTTER AND CLAM CHOWDER FOR DINNER SLAMS HANDS SENTENCES YOU TO STEW. im just sayin i've got little scummy feelsies from u that may go away depending on how I feel about other people later.

u feel me, bro?

Cure wrote:

Mr. Gerbear wrote:Wtf cure why am I second most suspicious :(

oshwott is the worst starter

I, for one, picked Snivy.

I feel u

But like. Idk why not immediately voting for katagi is particularly suspicious. I don't just drop votes like that :v And besides maf would definitely be in close contact so there's less reason to have to scramble if there's a bandwagon? Because then the other maf would be like "oh just vote". I don't even know.

But at the same time someone could definitely be like oh look he voted on the bandwagon so quickly, that's suspicious.

It's a lose lose for me on that account lol.

But anyway, the big reason I don't really want to hint is that, odds are there's a power player or two on the maf and I really don't want to die lol... because my power could've been why the NK failed on at least one of the nights (but honestly who knows who the target was). I targeted the same player both nights. Did it go through either night? I have no idea. Hopefully it did?

(As for my second power, I... want to hold on to it for myself because I honestly hate having this power as town l m a o if I use it I'm bound to fuck up hahaha......)

Anyway I literally just finished a term paper, thus freeing me from finals week and this entire semester. Pls congratulate me.

Ok hello I am done backreading. I actually hit backspace by accident and lost my original post so let's do this all over again:

Ducky wrote:It kinda stands out to me that Mitsu, Five, and Cure's lists are all so similar, but i know that as mafia they would be smart enough to not be so damn obvious about pushing a false agenda. That really strikes me as town. It also means that I really doubt the three of them, when they put their heads together, are wrong. And you pretty much all agree that Gerry, Tiki, and Angel are people on your watch list (and me too, but I am town). And if they are mafia and you got four out of five off the bat like that (I am including Katagi but not myself), then its kinda... RIP mafia on D2 and could it really be that easy?

I have some vague thoughts about certain players given posts made this phase (and the aforementioned gut feeling from earlier still persists), but I don't think I've explicitly... made a list of any sort, outside of this one, much less a suspicions list:

me wrote:Given stuff that's come up this phase, I wouldn't vote Five, Lucas, Raie, and Kiyoko because we're doing pretty well with this one game streak of not dying (though ultimately I have no evidence other than Raie's comments about her ability to believe she's town, and the reasoning for not wanting to vote Five, Lucas, or Raie is much stronger).

so I'm actually kind of confused as to how I've been lumped in with Five and Raie? I'm willing to chalk this up as missing things through backreading more than anything, though. I guess this means I should probably make a list, though.

I'm not particularly suspicious of the following people:
Five, Raie, Saki, Aeiou

I'm not very suspicious of the following people, but the reasoning is weaker compared to the aforementioned four:
Kiyoko, Ninfia, Lucas, Rasei, chinomi

Everyone else:
Luxaria, angelstar, Entelechy, Tiki the Troll, Mr. Gerbear, ezzelin, Ace

This list is mostly just a mix of people who I'd like to hear from more and people who have been suspected in-thread, I think?

ezzelin wrote:There's the possibility that the N0 NK was blocked, and they then withheld the N1 NK to play up the "drumming blocks the NK" aspect that katagi brought up earlier, and just didn't get to pull it off because katagi was outed so quickly and had votes piled on - however, that doesn't seem very likely, as imo in this case they would have katagi push the idea more earlier, or claim directly after rollover

This is an interesting comment on the katagi thing, too; that being said, I feel like this possibility does fall apart because drumming is so disruptive to rollover flavour to begin with, and it'd be hard for mafia to spontaneously claim > attempt to justify the drumming as a town option, given that pretty much the thread consensus was "drumming is anti-town and mafia", and I agree if this were the case it probably would've been done earlier.

I do wonder if the mafia in this game is slightly disorganized given how katagi's outing went, but the main issue for me is that the mafia is really... big in this game, and unless the mafia (or some mafia) aren't aware/capable of communicating with other mafia, a disorganized mafia of six people doesn't seem particularly likely. More on the topic of who is mafia: I feel like the majority of mafia members, if not all of them are nestled somewhere within the katagi lynch*, because it'd be exceptionally difficult to try and argue against two players who apparently independently identified katagi as the drummer without making yourselves or your dissent really obvious, but that's just me

Finally: this is just me kind of pedaling water in a sense, but I'm wondering what exactly the spread of abilities in this game is, given that there seems to be a ton of roles that have investigative capacities, contrasted with Tiki's self-admitted "scummy" role and passive.

Raie wrote:oshwott is the worst starter

Raie is mafia, everyone, game's over

*by this I mean they jumped on it without really fighting it or going "hmm unsure..."

It's not particularly suspicious. It was slightly suspicious, and I don't really have a whole lot of direct reasons to be suspicious of anyone else at the moment, so it just bumps you up on the suspicious list.

At this point I think people reluctant to jump immediately on the bandwagon are more suspicious than those that hopped on right away... since most people hopped on right away.

MITSU I SAID I WAS KIDDING


ALSO WRITE YOUR POSTS IN NOTEPAD SO YOU DON'T LOSE THEM, NERD. EVEN IF THEY'RE TWO SENTENCES LONG.

I haven't really kept up with the past few pages since my last posts, so if anything notable happened, my apologies. I've been trying to dig through what I only skimmed previously, but some things came up and I can't focus on or process posts in full right now. I should also mention that the next 28 hours or so are basically going to be me preparing for a trip that starts early on the 21st, after which point I can't guarantee I'll be active until the end of the month, but I'll try since I should have some opportunities to still post. In hindsight I likely should not have signed up. I did not realize how stressed out I'd get from travel preparation. Oops. Sorry to everyone.

That out of the way, what I commented on finding interesting is several statements that have come forth during this phase that are intriguing to me due to my own role and the ramifications upon the game balance as a result. I had no action I could perform N0, and anything I may or may not have turned up on N1 is more-or-less redundant given the state of the thread. I will say that whatever theories are around regarding the nature of the missing rollovers and their implications for what mafia has gained as a result, I do not think there is much to worry about except for the flavor being erased. If that's any consolation.

I haven't really kept a close enough eye on things to have any solid thoughts on the players beyond the obvious assessment of Crypsis vs Katagi in that I'm inclined to believe the accuracy of Crypsis' results for potentially more reasons than one. I know Aeiou seems to claim some knowledge of Katagi as early as D1, but I caught that at a glance and have not since had a chance to read back up to those points and figure out how that went down. I think there has been some recent discussion regarding reactions on a few players, but I honestly have barely read any of that, if at all. I'm not really in a position to question players with lower contribution or activity levels, so in the end I am just waiting for hopefully more public information in the form of a rollover. What leads have been mentioned in thread from various players are ones I'm treating cautiously, since I haven't been around enough to solidify my own personal reads, but presently I'll work with whatever is out in the open.

Lastly, I am almost wondering if, given the seeming presence of so much investigation power (which is high considering the game's fundamental mechanic is basically pseudo-investigation for both sides, in a way) suggests to me a lower frequency of protective powers and actions. But, I think I remember Kiyoko commenting her role suggests a large amount of protections, though, following someone else's commentary on this matter. There being a large amount of protects could be the only explanation I'd allow for Katagi to even feasibly have a protection with a dramatic anti-town side-effect if it's one of many in this game. But the way in which it was used, the timing of it, and how it was presented by her in thread... Yeah. Anyway, the reason I am curious to this end is because two nights with no kills suggests a multitude of things, one of which might be explained by an abundance of protection. The 6:12 ratio was compensated, as alca said, and given the results of each night protections seem likely... but now I'm not entirely sure if there's a lot in the way of results and information on the side of town.

There's... a few players I think I'm reading as having controlling actions, but without the feedback of the rollover it's really difficult to necessarily judge what is going on in terms of if that's what's been halting the NKs, or if it is actually a plethora of protects, or both. That said, these are only two points of data so it's not much to go on. Regardless of protects and controlling effects thwarting the NKs, and the amount of information we have or will have (pending rollover flavor), I'm inclined to believe mafia's counterbalance--other than numbers--will be misinformation heavy roles and controlling actions of their own. I think a few people have been asked if their results seem tampered with and insofar it hasn't seemed that way, and so I'm wondering if redirects, buses, reflects, tailors, and millers/reverse-millers may be prominent at play here  on the side of mafia given the other assessments of game structure. Logically, action misdirection gains an incredible amount of power in this game when players can't receive the usual rollover feedback of certain actions hitting various targets.

I'm going to end this here, and I apologize if it's still not all that much. I should note that some of my theorizing is largely a result of my skimming in which I saw a lot of informational hints tossed around. My opinion on the veracity or production of some of this may change when I actually have a moment to sit down and ponder them out, but insofar I'm just going by base reactions. One last thing I am curious about, as I am in most every game, is the distribution of controlling effects. Since we do not know much about their number and quantity... usually I am inclined to believe there's an equal distribution. For this game, with 6:12, and potentially more protects and investigation than usual, I think it's not unreasonable for more of them to land on mafia than not. Alca has said that apparently flavor text indicates or hints at the action in question--and speaking of my own role, I can confirm this is true for me, at least. So when we finally see rollover flavor we may get a better idea of how much of each kind of role we might be dealing with. Come to think of it, one nice thing of this setup is we potentially get some quick feedback on which roles--or at least specific actions--are lost following player deaths. So that's neat. If there are more controlling effects on the side of mafia, that may toss some speculation as to the missing NKs out the window in that it'd be slightly less likely for them to be wholly or partly responsible for the halted kills, though not impossible.

tl;dr:
This may be the too lux; didn't read I throw up for quite some time, so cherish it in full. I'll try for another during the night phase, hopefully once I'm more read up, but I can't guarantee it. Sorry.

ezzelin wrote:

Entelechy wrote:Ezzelin has also been less active then usual, but I think she has had good thoughts and insight, but it does intrigue me that her list is of people who are all so different that the other strong spec player's. I would hate it if Mitsu, Five, and Cure were just taking us for a damn ride.

I don't think my lists are really different though? I only posted my not-scummy lists, though, so maybe you misread that as my suspicions? idk I did kinda phrase that oddly perhaps :Va

Backreading, just wanted to address this real quick, yes I totally misread your post, I read that as people you were suspicious of instead of were NOT suspicious of. I just missed the "not."