Practice Match Mafia [Away Team Win]

Mr. Alice wrote:oh................

dranbahl wrote:Raie, you've been pro-town, but until now you haven't been as aggressive as usual. This is a soft-read, but as it stands, the other pro-town people have more of a vote-relevant town backing. Not that I distrust you, but I do feel like your playstyle is different from normal, and I could still see you as a pretty effective wolf in sheep's clothing.

I can understand a Lynch on me, and won't be mad at town if that happens, given the circumstances. Although, I am town, and I'd really like to not have an "everyone votes Dran" round next phase, mainly because that won't be the most effective use of a phase.

dranbahl wrote:
That said, Sammiya, I'd be happy to be your sibling. From what I see, you and Rasei have a refreshing level of sibling respect.

Spoiler:

C☆☆☆ wrote:Rasei wants Lucas to be killed in cold blood.

C☆☆☆ wrote:In fact, all three of the cleared town would be on the "negative" side of the scale, sooooo!!!!

dranbahl wrote:Raie, you've been pro-town, but until now you haven't been as aggressive as usual. This is a soft-read, but as it stands, the other pro-town people have more of a vote-relevant town backing. Not that I distrust you, but I do feel like your playstyle is different from normal, and I could still see you as a pretty effective wolf in sheep's clothing.

I can understand a Lynch on me, and won't be mad at town if that happens, given the circumstances. Although, I am town, and I'd really like to not have an "everyone votes Dran" round next phase, mainly because that won't be the most effective use of a phase.

drandahl wrote:I'll agree to the spec so far, and assume that Lux, Kiyo and Rasei, are all Town. I'm getting a very pro-town read from both Lucas and Cure♀ as well, mainly due to their level of involvement in spec. I'm feeling less so on Cure♂, ez, Tiki, (and I fall into this bucket as well). There are others playing of course, but I haven't personally exhaustively spec'd yet.

I'm placing a vote: T3t, HOWEVER: Considering the currently established town-y players, I will freely change my vote if any of Lux, Kiyo, or Rasei suggest an alternative.

drandahl wrote:Regarding the T3t vote, I was willing to move my vote if given instruction by an established town. I mentioned this up front so we could coordinate votes comfortably.

And yeah, I know I've been a little quiet so far in terms of actual content. I'm not a person to be overwhelmed by numbers, but I have been too distracted to post a complete list of reads/thoughts on every player right now.

drandahl wrote:Didn't think about this until now, but wouldn't that be a stupid way for mafia to scum themselves up?

drandahl wrote:Sure, IF town passed to 12. But nobody (except mafia) knows who is safe for town to pass to. I get your reasoning here. It's...

Case 1.
Dran is mafia, AND Dran decided to claim a Tiki(#12) pass...
...what's the probability of this?

Case 2.
Dran is town, AND Dran decided to pick #12 to pass, AND the ball never got to Dran...
...what's the probability of this?

I can see which feels more likely at first. However, I did claim kind of late, after there was already some suspicion on Tiki, I think? I'd have to go back and check.

drandahl wrote:I'm more likely to trust and Sammiya, Ez. True, Vowels could be another maf, but both Sammiya and Ez had other options for a second lynch candidate (myself included).

Still not sure how to feel about Vowel's sustained No Lynch.

drandahl wrote:I didn't have completely strong reasons for voting T3t. He wasn't as active as usual, and that surprised me. Something about his posts threw me off, but that's more of a soft read. It was D1, and there wasn't much to go off of yet, but I also didn't feel comfortable contributing to the primary lynch candidates at that time.

Nothing deeper than that.

Also, my inaction was very bad for Mafia (unless Vowels is also mafia and T3t isn't, in which case, sure, I could have tried to start a campaign to mislynch).

drandahl wrote:I've been mainly responding to concerns on me.

drandahl wrote:Feigning ignorance could also be a mafia tactic, at least early on. It kind of catches eyes, which does put some people in the limelight, but that's a little easier to address than "Person voted X on D1" or "Person did not say much." I don't think it's always a good tactic, but I've seen a few players act this way before as mafia, and it's worked for them.

drandahl wrote:In increasing order of suspicion:

Town:

► Kiyoko
  N0 Passing clears her for me.

► Luxaria
  N0 Passing clears her for me.
 
► Rasei
  N0 Passing clears her for me.

drandahl wrote:Probably town:

► Cure
  Has been very town-focused this game. Has not pushed conversation to lynch particular players as much as she has in the past. Could be trying to look less aggressive than usual, but I'll assume she's town for now.

drandahl wrote:► Sammiya
  Sammy was the first to maintain her vote on Tiki.
If Aeiou is maf, then Sammy had many more options to choose from to draw attention from Aeiou (Ez, myself, or any new candidate). If Aeiou is town, Sammy would have no reason to start Tiki as a second lynch candidate, unless we assume a bussing strategy. For now, I'm feeling town on Sammy.

► Chinomi Mr. Alice
  Brought votes to tie (Aeiou)->(Tiki, Aeiou) D1. If Aeiou is town, then I'm viewing Blairomi as town, until I have reason to believe a bussing strategy.

► Entelechy
  New to the forum (welcome again!). Locked lynch on Tiki. If Aeiou flips town, I'll trust Enteduck is town. If Aeiou flips maf, I just don't know. Will need to re-read her post when she voted.

drandahl wrote:► Aeiou
  I'm really not reading maf on Aeiou yet, but I'm fine with a lynch to gain more info. Yeah, I didn't know how to interpret her sustained NL at first, but as weird as it is for me, it doesn't read as scummy.

drandahl wrote:Would be more comfortable lynching:

► Cur3/T3tsuya
  Little info on T3t. I'd trust he's been busy irl. I'd be comfortable lynching, mainly due to process of elimination reasoning. Will want to re-read his recent posts this phase.

► High Seraph
  First to vote Tiki, but he unvoted. Voted Aeiou to bring us from (Tiki, Aeiou)->(Aeiou). He did put together a useful graph, but that's not sustained enough of an effort to completely clear him for me. I'm more comfortable lynching him over other players.

► Drandahl
  Make sure to drink your Ovaltine.

I'm fine with a Vowels lynch for information, but to make this phase slightly more interesting.... Vote: High Seraph

drandahl wrote:Though if T3t really was busy outside of the game, I could picture a busy T3t not-so-kingpin.

Or I can picture a lack of Kingpin, but general community maf suggestions for Tiki to post.

drandahl wrote:@Avy: I wanted to lynch Vowels for information. But I also wanted to allow another lynch candidate to not waste the phase on a quiet lynch. In the end, didn't really do anything.

I wasn't going to be around to change my vote to Vowels near the end of phase, so I switched in advance to still pin the lynch.

@Raie: Lucas and T3t are currently top of my list (for reasons of "least de-scummed"). I'd be comfortable lynching either.

drandahl wrote:Also, I think I feel pretty much the same way about T3t right now as Lucas. That said, I still am holding out some concern for Lucas as well.

Surprised you didn't mention anything about me, Lucas, considering there's been a lot of Lucas/T3t/Dran combinations floating around.

T3tsuya wrote:

If I wanted you on my ass this hard I would have hinted at it in the locker room. I didn't hint at all. Even though you were clearly looking and 'No" means "No" at least half of the time for me.

I will scowl right back at you don't even give me that look. I know I look great in these gym shorts.



I've kind of been in and out today but here I am now. There's not much to disagree on in terms of speculation right now from what I've seen. Especially given I'm still kind of trying to understand how everything works now with the quick changes to PMs that are sent out.

I've mostly skimmed, I'm going to give a better read tonight if I can. But for what it's worth, I didn't receive any PM about being passed to or that I was a spiker. From what I understand so far I can't outright claim my number but I can at least divulge I was set to pass to Number 5 if the ball came to me.

T3tsuya wrote:Good god a lot has happened since I left.

Sorry for phasing out and not really contributing as much as I'd like, or really at all. I've been really busy which I know is no excuse in mafia but just BEING TRANSPARENT ABOUT IT.

I didn't vote last night because I was barely through backreading and I didn't think I had enough of a working knowledge of what was going on to form an opinion. I still don't, I'm fixing that. Everyone who's played with me should at least know how rare it is for me to take off and not vote like that, so if that's worth anything, great.

For what it's worth, it looks like I had the ability to hammer in the vote to save a maf on the pretext that I had just finished backreading, this did not happen. A maf died without me suspecting him in thread in a way that would be meaningful to throwing him under the bus to clear me. I can understand the suspicion on me as an inactive player right now though, just trying to clear that up where I can.



The fact Tiki got lynched for being scummy from the get go is freaking astounding to me, I feel like this is the first time it's ever definitively happened. Usually he's left alone for awhile because he's always like this. I'm so happy. It's a brand new world.

I'm still backreading and forming some thoughts of my own, I'll make a post when I'm done tonight.



By the way Xcom 2 is really good you guys should get it and make your loved ones characters in it and then watch them die terribly.


EDIT:

Just finished backreading. I don't really disagree with any of the big points. And the whole Tiki thing is just.

I can't read Tiki. Nobody can read Tiki. He's built up this simultaniously good and terrible strategy of just being as scummy and not exactly helpful as he can be all the time always regardless of alignment. I don't know what to make of the really short posts, weird speculation, and completely ignoring certain things. Ok so really I don't know how to quantify it but something just seems off about his posts this time and I'm positive anyone who has ever played with him can see it.

The reason I bring it up is because he flipped maf I need to start calling into question how he was interacting with everyone until that point. He jumped on cure's ass immediately and for no reason. Cure's been contributing. I think from that Cure is town.

I don't really get what to make about how he interacted with other people. I think it should probably be talked about a bit more.



Obligatory drandahl mention. I really don't like how he responded to Kiyo's pressing him and then everything just kind of dropped. Honestly I do understand the vote for me if it was just for inactivity but that wasn't really mentioned as the case. Given that I've said almost nothing I am not sure where that came from.

Entelechy is reading really oddly to me based on how they keep wanting to work off just the numbers and nothing but. At one point discouraged information exchange and that is just really scummy to me in a game where we're all essentially vanilla. Kind of up there for me.

High Seraph seems like he's being high seraph which is actually pretty hard for me to read. I'm on the fence.

That's what I have so far, I know it's a night phase and we're going to have light speculation but I think it would be good to go into these people a little bit more.

T3tsuya wrote:I didn't even really catch that. Us being all vanilla is in the very first post and we've been talking about it extensively, there's no part of the thread where that is easy to miss. I would be willing to vote just based on that but the whole thing with Tiki is kind of making it my favorite choice right now.

On the drandahl subject, I'm not sure how to take it. It weirds me out but it doesn't weird me out because he voted me, the reason it strikes me as weird is that it wasn't a vote for just inactivity and I had literally nothing else in thread. If possible I'd like dran to chime in on it.

T3tsuya wrote:I passed to Jersey 7 last night. Also received no PMs but I'm not strictly sure that's a thing anymore.

☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ wrote:Okay I know the exact order of N0 passes. This is interesting, because it implies there's at least one  crywolf regular in the mafia or that mafia rng'd targets. I'm not sure if that changes things for me re: my top suspects atm because Tiki was a crywolf regular, but I don't know if Tiki would be the one choosing targets for his team.

I'm still trying to really understand the implications of mafia targeting but from what I understand isn't every kill some level of random for maf in that they can target someone with a near-guarantee they're going to pass to someone town at this point? From what I'm seeing it's not very easy to plan who actually dies.

☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆☆ wrote:I'm about to afk for dinner but even if we go for the lynch Aeiou plan, I'd like some discussion on the Lucas/drandahl/Tet theory.

Also for Duck, Lucas = high seraph

At this point I really am on board with the Aeiou idea. It think it's based on sound logic and the Tiki weirdness just doesn't sit right with me, but at the same time I can recognize I'm disproportionately critical of anything Tiki says so I'm being cautious about it.

The Lucas/Dran/Tet theory makes sense to me. I can understand why I'd be lumped in there based on the information we have. I'll help clear it up where I can. Like I said before, I was a little weirded out by Dran's vote on me if it was for any reason other than inactivity, he's posted and now said it was inactivity which I understand, and that his inaction was bad for mafia which I dont really understand. I'm still not sure if I'm buying what he's selling but I'd be willing to have him on deck after Aeiou if that goes wrong.

Lucas, I can't help with. I can't really read Lucas. I'm not saying it's a bad idea, I'm just saying I've been burned too many times trying to read Lucas.



EDIT:

C☆r☆ wrote:As captain of the Dylan/Lucas/Tet is maf ship, I think tet is the LEAST likely to be maf of the three of them, simply because he tends to take charge when he's mafia, and I cannot believe for a second that he'd let Tiki run rampant in the thread like he did, and I also think he'd try to pay attention to the game a little bit more than he has been if he was mafia.

Forget everything else I said in my defense, this is the only defense I need. In my house Tiki is an inside dog if not just because the neighbors shoot at him.

T3tsuya wrote:Just noticed that I forgot to Vote: Aeiou. Not particularly because I think he's maf over other leads like dran, newguy, and possibly lucas. But mostly because I agree with the idea that we stand to get a lot of information either way.

Reasons I feel those three in particular are viable to look at have already been explained in one way or another by several people but I'm going to post my reasons so that's on the record.

Dran because of reasons already pointed out by Ezz and a lot of other people. I'm not entirely sure I buy the explanations he gave after he was asked to post up. I'm not entirely ready yet to really press at it until I get some more information.

NewDuckGuy because of just a lot of overzealous defending in the face of being questioned, blind reliance on one person (It is Kiyo, an almost entirely confirmed town to their credit), and what looks like directing language. What gets me the most is the overdefending. Going that hard or having an outburst tends to make me give discerning glares more than any other action in the game.
But, to their credit, they're new. I've never seen them play before. I'd feel uncomfortable throwing down a lynch on someone who's shaky logic can be chalked up to inexperience. I'd be willing to revisit it after we have more information as well.

HighSeraphLucas. Is Lucas.



That's what I got. And now I'm going to bed.

T3tsuya wrote:I'm alright with people throwing suspicion my way for earlier inactivity which is why when I was looking at Dran's vote, that wasn't something I found suspicious. I lynch inactives too regardless of excuse.

But I actually have a pretty big issue with what you just said at least in terms of accuracy. It is not hard to agree to lynch an inactive player who's not contributing, and no, you're right. I didn't fit that early game. But to say I still do it a little bit sideways, I've been posting every phase since then and I contributed my reasons for every person and vote I was looking at at the current moment. I've stated every one of my passes as soon as possible. I've been contributing, and I think it's a little weird to objectively say I haven't been when pretty much the only thing you yourself have been posting are things like

Lucas wrote:
well thats all i have guys idk what i can say to change your minds about me except that i'm not mafia??? And I'm definitely not the mafia king either ok? I promise to make more charts if you guys don't lynch me ok............

in combination with trying to point me out.


That combined with the fact you previously broke a tie between Tiki and Aeiou leaning towards lynching Aeiou, who has now been revealed town, it really makes me wonder even more about you than if you had actually said nothing. I feel like this is flailing for a defense. I'm positive I'm not the only one.




I think it's even more interesting that Kiyo is right. Dran hasn't contributed anything new the entire thread and the only thing he's posted recently has been "Yes Lucas I feel the same way about T3t right now. I'm surprised you didn't mention anything about me, Lucas"

You know what, I'm also surprised you didn't mention anything about Dran. I think it's pretty surprising how little there has been in the way of factual speculating towards your own defense against the other person. Both dran and high seraph both follow this trend. At least to my eyes.



I, currently, have two people who are my favorite candidates to vote. It's high seraph and dran. I understand the collision that causes given that I'm in the same suspicion pool as them, and I understand why I'm in the same pool as them. So before I vote tomorrow, I'l like to hear everyone's opinions on what I just brought up. I'm not going to fire the first shot here without some healthy discussion.

C☆☆☆ wrote:Kiyo wants me to acknowledge her specposts so I'm giving her two stars because I love her.