Round 21: Baccano Mafia (Night 0)

Well♡ i happen to know that Ninfia didnt used her ability last night

Okay.

My point stands, either Ninfia is mafia or this game is all kinds of busted. As does my point about not being able to lynch her today. We'll lose if we do.

... oh right this.

OH WAIT this phase is also 48 hours, cool cool cool.

LYLO on D1 is scary as shit. I guess at least from any given town's perspective, there's a 50% chance to select a mafia, 33% chance if we're excluding Ninfia as... Five is recommending. Actually, both of you have commented on Ninfia to some degree. Is Ninfia around even at all? Or even Lucas I guess.

I thought I had an idea re: Five's thoughts on how lynching Ninfia equates to a loss, but they don't make any sense in terms of balance. I'm not sure how you're so certain Ninfia is mafia, or how much I should even trust you on this if you're not being specific. I mean we essentially lose if we guess wrong.

Actually:

Vote: Ninfia

More of an activity vote, since only she and Lucas haven't posted and the other has a vote already, but I am also down to do this since insofar the other two active people have commented on her so this is the best way to press more info/discussion I think. Can and probably will swap later if I get what I want. idk what else to do other than vote one of you two, tbh. how do you even handle a D1 like this.

I'm not entirely sure that ninfia is the evil mafia person. Five, why do you think she is evil?

Luxxxie.

Luxxxiedear, no. We can't lynch Ninfia today, or we lose. Regardless of Ninfia's alignment. Trust me. I'm not exactly sure what your thoughts are on the reasoning behind this, but lynching Ninfia won't skip the next day phase or anything. Just, even if she's mafia, we won't have another day phase.

I'll be right back with some more thoughts but I'm not sure how much I want to share at this juncture.

If Ninfia is town, there was a chance the game could have ended n0. I know the ratio is a disaster and I'm putting faith here in balance factors that may not be present, especially given the imbalance in the starting ratio, but from a rational perspective I have no choice but to assume that chance for the game to end without the possibility of a single day phase did not exist. If this is true, Ninfia is definitely mafia.

We can't lynch her today, though, or next phase is going to be a huge problem and we'll lose unless we stop the NK or something.

So, basically, one of a few things can happen here. If the game is indeed designed such that the game could have ended on n0, we'll probably lose n1 anyway. If we lynch Ninfia and she's town, we lose this phase. If we lynch Ninfia and she's mafia, we'll probably lose n1, too. The only option is to find and lynch the other mafia player.

We really need an active phase to do this. Let's step it up, my pals.

Re: Ninfia not using her ability last night: I am unsurprised. I would actually be a little bit surprised if she's even checked the thread at all.

holy shit okay so it's lylo okay. okay.

I'm whacking my brain trying to understand these hints that Five is dropping, but I'm not having much luck piecing everything together. With that said, I can see how such a small game would be a great opportunity for Five to attempt to dominate the discussion with her usual super-vague-but-apparently-really-valuable-information. I find that Five is usually more direct when she's town...

Still, the idea that the game could have been over on night 0 is ????? wow

Hmmm. :-|a

Rasei seems to be hinting at watcher/tracker. Meanwhile, Lux's post didn't really bring us any new information, so it's impossible to make a read on her... Ninfia is the ultimate question mark tho since she legit said zero thing so far.

Tbh this is literally a game of "guess who's lying" because the game hasn't gone on long enough so that we could build trust in other players, and it definitely won't last long enough so that we can build that trust if we mislynch now and that's... really intimidating actually!?

I feel like the best course of action is really to be as open as possible about whatever information we have so that we can, uh, try to pick the odd one out of the bunch and hope it works. Unfortunately I don't have any information due to how the night phase ended so my only option is really to just suspect and stare at everyone :(

A'ight.

You want direct? You want open? I can play that game.

Ninfia and I are lovers. I wasn't given her alignment,  though.

I'm town. If Ninfia's town and one of us was hit with the n0 kill, that's the end of the game. So not only could the game have ended n0 in this case, it's almost 50% likely because there are only 4 town to begin with. If Ninfia's mafia and we lynch her today we're at 2:1 going into n1 and a successful NK ends the game.

Boom. Bang. The only way to win is to get rid of the other mafia first, THEN Ninfia.

Also if Ninfia is town I just threw the game. Oh well. Like I said, I have no rational choice but to assume that the game did not have a chance to end before a single day phase happened.

... That.

I really don't know what to make of that. If there's a lover pair as you say, that's... ignoring LYLO on D1 as we have here, the percentage chance of the game instantly ending (both on N0 and at any point) is so high if it's two town lovers, so I can see the logic behind Ninfia needing to be mafia... which I guess? could be a counter-balance to the 4:2 ratio if mafia just accidentally lost one of their own while performing a night kill or in pushing a lynch on a town or something.

... I liked it so much better when I thought you were implying she was lynchproof or had a delayed vigilante or something, though both seemed unlikely and didn't indicate mafia status, so...

So, uh, wait. I guess Ninfia isn't around for us to ask about her side of this and what her role details, but your role just literally says you're a lover with Ninfia? Like if process of elimination says one of the lovers has to be mafia or this game makes no sense, isn't that kind of... broken on top of the implications for the game of that role existing? Unless it's meant to be a bit of a dance for the town lover to the tune of, "You know this person is probably mafia, but revealing how you know this is a gamble" That said for all we know, if you have the role you claim, you could be the mafia half and are throwing shade on Ninfia. I don't know where that would get you, however, unless mafia want to just enter N1 at 1-2 and get the NK for a victory. But the counter to that is: you're also saying we don't lynch Ninfia, and, if anything, you're trying to avoid a lynch on her for D1.

What a mess.

My thoughts: Forgive me, Five, I'm having difficulty believing this lover pairing for hopefully understandable reasons, but I'm not sure how to process what it would mean if you were lying and/or why you would lie, so in the end I have a big "??" next to both you and Ninfia. I will keep my vote there for now until she posts, or if conversation gets us elsewhere. I have another thought re: your assessments, if they're genuine, but I think I'll wait to see how the phase pans out before figuring out how to tackle that.

So at this point, Rasei: What do you claim to know about Ninfia? Do you specifically know that she didn't use her ability last night, as in she has an ability she can use? Or she didn't visit anyone? Or--what? What are you willing to share? And who would you vote for? Same goes for Lucas, or even Five re: her current vote or if she wants to change it. For me, I really can't decide right now what I think about Five or Ninfia, beyond keeping my vote on the latter until she says a thing, but I also have no reason not to vote out Lucas or Rasei. I guess right this moment I'd lean voting Lucas over Rasei since I want to see what Rasei has on Ninfia, but this is also LYLO already so idfk how to evaluate information vs risk vs probing vs trust.

It's not uncommon, outside of this forum, to have a town-mafia lover pair where they know each other's alignments. I should also mention that Ninfia is my neighbor, but the method of communication was provided by the host and she hasn't said a word to me there. Otherwise I'd have poked her for activity long before this.

I understand that you're hesitant to trust this information, but I hope you realize that if I was going to lie I would come up with something that made a bit more sense and didn't have disastrous implications on the balance of the game. I also hope you realize how little sense "Ninfia is mafia but if we lynch her today we lose" makes as a lie from just about any point of view. Unless I were mafia with Ninfia, I guess? But that's definitely not the case.

I'm not inclined to change my vote. Lucas insinuating that it's not my usual town behavior to share important things I know without sharing how I know them bothers me. The counterpoint I guess is that it would be very easy for Rasei to know whether or not Ninfia used her ability if the two were mafia together. I'm also not inclined to care what happens much considering how much of a mess this game is. I know that either we had a 50% chance of losing n0 depending on the NK target or a 50% chance of losing the phase after lynching a mafia d1. We really don't have much of a shot at this either way. But if you don't wanna lose, move your vote.

You wanna know what's even better? In a game with no wiggle room for error at all, I'm a (one-shot) vigilante. Funny, that. Anyway, I'll kill Ninfia at night if we do lynch mafia today. Move the vote, though. Geez.

uh so I had no idea this game started? I'll be back reading now.

okay so I am reading the thread and fun fact:

I didn't get a role pm. I have no idea what Five is talking about and can't confirm anything until I get my role pm. I sent the host a message about it but I really don't know what to say from here lmao.

Oh my god.

Okay well I am suddenly very unsure of my role because my role PM gave me a role and told me that my partner was Five.

Maybe I'm actually mafia and got Ninfia's role PM. I don't even know any more.

high_seraph was lynched. They were mafia. Night 1 begins now.

P.S: Sorry for crappy game. I expected more peoples tbh.

At least I got that much right.

Am I trustworthy yet? Was I supposed to be your mafia partner, Lucas?

Did Ninfia get a role PM?

Find out on the next episode, I guess.