Laughing Among the Crying Wolves [OVER - MAFIA WIN]

wow get fucking wrecked, me. good luck everyone!

I did not target Ninfia last night.

okay so this means that either both mafia members targeted ninfia, one mafia member targeted ninfia and the other targeted a mafia member, or one mafia member targeted ninfia and the other didn't send in a target, right?

I think as far as players go, Nelfia is a pretty predictable n0 target, regardless of if the intent was to protect or kill.

I'm going to crunch some numbers again--I guess that's all I can really do to be helpful since I don't really know player meta at this point? But I'm wondering if we should share our targets for n0. On the one hand, there aren't any power roles that can give us information, but on the other hand we can literally never know if people are telling the truth, and while (while I haven't run the numbers, which I will in a bit) it's unlikely that the mafia know each other at this point in the game, it's pretty likely that at least one of them has a hunch they're mafia at this point... depending on how likely Ninfia is to be a common target for a kill/protection on n0, anyway. Does anyone have any insight into player meta regarding that?

If we're revealing actions, I'm all set to tell you what I did last night.

Huh. My initial thought was "Well, at least I know I'm not mafia now," but then I realized that I could still be mafia if it were a tie and went to RNG. I targeted myself last night. Honestly, I will act in town's interest until I am proven mafia, and targeting myself gave the best chance of detecting if I was mafia or not, I thought, and I think Five's math proved that the more towns folk who target themselves, the better odds they have.

Sadly, I forgot to try to contact anyone last night.

And I am back from frowning at a calculator again. Here are today's numbers. Again, all presume random voting and do not consider player meta.

The chance that the mafia successfully contacted each other last phase is 23%. So while it's not very likely, we can't really assume that they still don't know who they are, either.

As I said yesterday, the likelihood that the two mafia members selected the same town target are about 9%, and the odds one chose a mafia target and one chose a town target are 34%. So, knowing what we know now, there's a 21% chance they both targeted Ninfia and a 79% chance one of them targeted either the other or themselves.

I can't really go any further without knowing player meta, but self-votes are particularly... interesting, for reasons I mentioned yesterday. I'm also not really sure what to do today...? Normally I'd say we should lynch someone for the sake of gleaning information in the future from the lynch and people's votes today, but I don't know to what extent that applies at this point in this game specifically when there's more than a three in four chance that we can't possibly get any information from the lynch because the mafia don't know their partners.

edit: Also, keep in mind that ties do not go to RNG, they result in no kill unless one of the people in the tie is mafia.

Wait, if it doesn't go to RNG, then, at this point, most of the town probably knows they are town, right? I mean, the people who voted for Ninfia don't know 100%, in case 3+ people all voted for ninfia, but that seems unlikely.

EDIT: Wait, no, I could still me mafia, and the "tie" would go to whoever the other mafia voted for (Ninfia). So voting for myself was probably not a good idea then.

unvote; vote: Sammy

I would happily share who I acted on last night.

Poor Ninfia.

This game is going to be pretty fascinating I think, if also highly confusing. (And not knowing if one is actually mafia or not is rather... uncomfortable too, in a way.)

Well I didnt vote for Ninfia and then I tried to contact Cure but nothing happened so? We at least arent mafia together lol. I dont really know what that proves. This is going to be a hard game to figure out. I dont know if we can figure anything out by trying to set up contact votes?? I'm usually pretty good at not voting or voting no lynch or whatever but I think honestly the less players the easier it is to figure shit out.

doing RNG to vote because we have nothing to really act on do we?
vote: Rasei
sry

I actually sent in my kill vote and my contact attempt on the same person.
*Waves to Lux*

I'm not RNG, I'm placing activity votes on people that haven't spoken yet. This game has been to quiet and if town wants to win, then it needs more discussion. We all saw what happens to quiet towns in past games.
unvote

Voting is mandatory in this game, but we're four hours from rollover and only one person has a vote up right now. Part of it is probably people not really knowing how to vote or speculate this game, and I admit I'm kind of in the same boat there. I think we probably should lynch, if only because we have no other way of finding or killing mafia, and every night we could lose a member of town even if the mafia don't know their partners; last night proved that.

It's a little late in the phase for me to be voting for someone based on activity, and I think most people's timezones and schedules ensure that they'll be gone for the time between now and rollover anyway? So I'm going to RNG and vote: Entelechy. I'm actually... not terribly worried about splitting votes in this particular game, early on at least, because the mafia probably don't really know who they are, let alone their partners, so they don't really know which way to tip the scales on the vote if it domes to that.