Laughing Among the Crying Wolves [OVER - MAFIA WIN]

Rasei wrote:I don't think Lux is mafia because she was one of the people looking for each other and her partner died.

Uh... this has nothing to do with alignments, Rasei, the people looking for each other were completely random.

this is such a useless pagetop

I meant will not be here... Hate my phone

... :T vote: Rasei To save my own life. wtf.

If you vote mw, we lose

Bye see yall after rollover. Heard my manager asking where I'm am.

What the hell. Your reasoning for refusing to vote Lux is "because she was looking for Vowels" despite the people looking for each other being completely random and having nothing to do with alignments. And you refuse to vote Sammie because of personal bias because she's your sister. Picking your targets like that is going to lose us the game at this point. If I get lynched we are going to lose the game, too, okay. That is... just such an awful awful AWFUL reason to pick a voting target when the ratio is 3:2 wtf.

and now you have conveniently zipped away and won't be here until after rollover.

Am awake. Less than an hour to go. Twenty minutes to go.

Votes are Rasei II and Cure I? Both players fit into my previous logic I've been trying to entertain. I feel like Rasei would be less likely to NK Tiki than the rest of us, which is why I'm hesitant to vote on her, but nothing stops her from engaging in that WIFOM and doing it anyway.

I can still see Five and Cure as being likely to test a target like Ninfia N0 to see their alignment. Then again, I could see Rasei doing that. I also feel like the first two would be more likely to target themselves (and if they're mafia, it'd let the other mafia choose where the vote goes), whereas Rasei would target someone else. I'd consider a Five vote, but that basically won't happen right now unless Sammiya shows up.

I don't know how I feel about Cure's claim of targeting me N0. I don't know if she's ever targeted me in her life, but I could also see it not being all that unreasonable. That said I don't know if she'd actually immediately kill Ninfia, when the trend is that Ninfia usually kills Cure first. Cure usually seems to go for other people. Unless Cure used the vote on herself and her partner chose Ninfia, in which case any of the remaining people service.

Rasei is targeting Cure for a lynch and I don't know how to read Rasei in this because of the setup of mechanics. I am fairly certain mafia know who they are by now, in which case I'm not sure what pairing with Rasei would make sense. I could see it maybe being with Sammiya, but then I feel like that pairing would never get a NK off on Ninfia N0, so nevermind. So then it'd be Rasei with Five or Cure. Starting a vote on Five and then swapping it is clever if they're both mafia, but now Five is voting on the other mafia in this scenario. There's always the possibility of swapping votes last minute, since nothing precludes mafia from doing this in a 5 person game where one might be AFK due to work, and I'm not sure if Sammiya will be here.

Rasei and Cure would also be weird for this same reason, and I could sort of see this pairing taking out Ninfia N0, as I could see Five and Rasei taking out Ninfia as well. That said, the latter is less likely since while Five is likely to target herself, Ninfia, or someone like Luxaria or Cure, I feel like Rasei picking either Ninfia, Five, or herself is lower in likelihood. So basically most of these depend on Rasei specifically picking herself while Cure or Five went for Ninfia. Kind of low in my opinion.

Cure, Five, and Sammiya are the pool I'm probably more comfortable with lynching in this case. I don't know if it's considered too obvious for both to vote on Rasei, meaning one of them is actually with Sammiya or Rasei, with Rasei as a very unlikely sort of thing. I do think it's exceptionally likely at least one of Five and Cure is mafia, but picking which is difficult (unless they both are). Cure with Five would be fairly plausible for killing Ninfia N0, as in they're the ones I could either see directly targeting Ninfia or targeting themself. Cure with Sammiya sort of has this, but to less of a degree, and Five with Sammiya even less so. Thus I feel like in terms of weights, Cure and Five are above Sammiya and Rasei, which I said in my last post, and these votes possibly cement it (idk, maybe they'll be swapped last minute).

All of this to say... I think I am okay voting for Cure, but I would have been okay voting for Five, too. That said, if I vote for either one it will either tie it or lynch them, since I feel like Sammiya showing up would probably vote away from Rasei in all likelihood. So basically to me it comes down to: Do I think Cure or Rasei would be more likely to target, in this order, Ninfia, Luxaria, and then Tiki.

For Cure, I could see her doing Ninfia, not sure on Luxaria (maybe she did herself that night?), and for Tiki... I have no idea how to read that interaction since it feels like Cure tends to ignore Tiki, but I could also legitimately see her just wanting to kill him (or voting herself again, idk). Rasei, slightly less likely on Ninfia, but I could see her doing Luxaria, and slightly less so on Tiki. This goes a bit out the window if mafia met sooner than N2, as in the vote on Luxaria was not up to chance, same with Tiki. If Tiki was deliberately decided, since I think there's a possibility of them meeting by N1, then that does change the character of those action votes.

... so basically, I think I feel slightly more comfortable lynching Cure than Rasei. If Rasei's the mafia and Cure's town, well this sucks. I feel I've done the best I can do to speculate in complete absence of reliable information for most of the game. :((

Vote: Cure

(Edit: For the record, I'm following my own logic rather than Rasei's in what she's saying, and while what she's saying is kind of hurried and off (me finding Aeiou is unrelated to alignment) and thus gives some concern, I do feel the odds of her being the mafia are less likely than Cure's. But given the setup of votes, there's not really many options right now unless either Cure or Five want to swap or something. Idk dude.)

:T I'd be willing to vote for Sammie too (or five, or you), honestly. I just don't want to die, Lux.


I honestly think like "standard targets" has no fucking bearing on this game, and mafia probably just picked random people even after they met up.

I... was honestly hoping someone would have some insight on what I asked re: Rasei's odd vote and Lux's possible wild ride ruse cruise. I have... honestly no idea who would target who, since I don't know player meta very well at all yet, and I'm starting to sound like a broken record and we don't have much time. At the time I put my vote in, it was mostly so I could... possibly save myself. Rasei's reasoning really does bother me, still. Sammiya's been quiet, which I know she does as mafia at least sometimes. Cure started out more subdued than I'm used to but is now her usual aggressive self, and I dunno what's going on with Lux. Long posts as usual, I guess.

If we want to solidify a lynch on Sammiya I'd be okay with switching to her given her quietness this game.

There's a chance of it being random, true. But I think N0 when no one knew their alignment, that is the most telling of player choice, because arguably and statistically you are more likely to be acting as a town.

I could see some people actually attempting to find out their alignment by targeting someone that's an acceptable kill, but not as likely to be hit by the flurry of actions (Cure or Luxaria), thus allowing you to possibly bypass the protect if it happens to land on them.

So when I think of what would allow for Ninfia to be targeted, the pairings are thus 2x Ninfia, 1x Ninfia / 1x Self, or the latter but flipped between the two mafia.

Five did a lot of math and ultimately suggested, iirc, that voting herself was fairly strong, but then didn't claim to do this later. I could also see Five being the type to strategically pick Ninfia for sake of testing alignment.

I can see you, Cure, picking Ninfia deliberately or voting yourself N0 for the same reasons as Five.

Thus it's then, what other person would be most likely to also place another vote that allows for the N0 on Ninfia to go off? If you or Five happened to be mafia (just one of you), then that means Rasei or Sammiya would have had to either vote themself or for Ninfia. I feel N0 for either of them is less likely to target themself (maybe Rasei), but I could see a low chance of them both going for Ninfia.

If you swap your vote to Five, I'd probably follow it up. If I don't you could always just go back to Rasei, I guess. But Five and Rasei are not about to swap their votes onto other people given the situation, so you're either in a tie against Rasei or Five from what it seems.

Five just said she'd switch her vote to Sammie.

I didn't vote myself N0, because I didn't even know self-voting was an option until people were talking about it in thread the next day.

also wtf why are you saying I'd be less likely to be hit by actions than other people in this game n0.

The thing is if we swap it to Sammiya, I feel like she is the least likely of the four of you to be mafia, but it's not impossible.

I still stand by thinking it's probable that one of Cure or Five is mafia, thus why to me it has to be either one of you.

I've been ninjaed a few times and I honestly would be fine Vote: Five since I don't think Rasei or Cure are mafia, and I'm inclined to think Lux as town.

And, for the record, it's not because Rasei is my sister or anything like that.

This time I slept in a bit since I threw up last night and generally feel like shit because of pms

... :\ Fine unvote, vote: five. I don't want to fucking die because of Rasei's shitty biased reasoning k thx

i honestly think lux could be mafia at this point and mafia intentionally sent in the kill on her the other day to ~clear~ her. We did the exact same thing when we were mafia together in gakuen2, and I know it's something you'd remember working.

We'll do this then, I guess.

Vote: Five