Vampires win! COTN

I hold my case that pushing a tie was a bad idea, as it represented a lot of risk with very little reward. From what I've gathered, Kotakia's death was a result of A) the mayor voted against her; B) the wolf's vote was redirected to her; C) both A and B are true or; D) both A and B are false and the lych was handled by RNG. If I missed any possibilities, feel free to point them out.

Depending on what hypothesis you find more likely, you can draw your own set of conclusions. For example, I'd like to believe either options B or D, because the little amount of information I hold fits with what little information these scenarios provide. As for drandahls question, on whether I think mafpires could be involved in Kotakia's lynch... I think the smartest course of action for them would be to vote on the other half of the tie, and send the wolfs vote in the last minute. This would save them from suspicion, somewhat, as town is used to look at those who mislynched first.

Anyway, I'd advise against pushing ties in the near future. I'm not too suspicious of alca, but I'm looking into those who jumped quickly into that strategy and wondering if they sparkle in the sun.

Whoops, yes. By mislynch I was referring to the investivig planning. Also, I'm not claiming anything right now; be careful with your wording.

I do think we should target High Seraph, though that's mainly due to them acting suspiciously inactive yesterday (though they were paying attention enough to correct Rasei). I do recognize the hypocrisy here. Otherwise, I'm thinking one of Sammiya, Rasei, or AliceofOz (Though you're being pretty pushy on me in particular, Lux. Maybe that's understandable... I haven't played a lot of games with you so far...).

If none of them chime in, well I don't know what to tell you. I haven't had enough time to build up any innocence, and I goofed yesterday. I don't think you'll gain as much information from lynching me as you expect.

EDIT: ninja'd. High Seraph's post seems reasonable, but I don't have time to address it in detail right now.

Actually, I will address it. Sorry for the double-post; I just don't have much time left right now.

I don't see anything outstanding in their post. Enumerating the possible explanations for the end vote result isn't that illuminating.

I also am curious why they didn't really push their claimed distaste for the tie-strategy more yesterday.

drandahl wrote: I don't think you'll gain as much information from lynching me as you expect.

That's not true, actually. Since it seems you aren't a power role, you're either vanilla town or mafia. If the former, we either outright win or come close to it. If the second, well that's one mafia down. There's also the matter of double-checking what alignments our vote was between yesterday, as Alcasync said. Also, I'm only being pushy to try and figure out where your loyalty is, since you've been dodgy on and off.

@ High Seraph. I'll address you in a longer post an hour from now, but I think a lot of people are missing a subtle component of the strategy. I may or may not elaborate because I do not wish to reveal more to the mafpires than is necessary.

high seraph did push to avoid the tie, actually. I don't particularly find his behavior too suspicious because I think it's more likely that high seraph is a town power role than mafia at this point. I'll elaborate once we know what drandahl's alignment is.

Hi, so, uh. My activity will probably be shot more than I expected for a multitude of reasons, which is why it's highly likely that I'll only be around at the very beginning and the very end of phases (like... the hour before and the hour after rollover, which is incredibly inconvenient). Combine this with the forum not loading for me and all I can say is haha, welp. I probably won't be more active for a few more days because life is kicking me in the teeth right now

Some quick points:

About drandahl: Valid opinion to select drandahl for investivig to determine the true bias of the lynch yesterday. drandahl's lack of urgency towards the lynch and blaise attitude is kind of strange, since if they were squatter or monhun (and therefore one of the two roles that could know if vampires were vampires) I feel like they'd be more forceful in turning the tide against them being investivig'd. Most of what I want to say has been said so

At the end of the day, we could have pulled out into a no-lynch by asking for a few vote changes, and I know there was enough discussion around that time to feel confident we had enough players to do that. We still would have gathered information around how players acted up until that point (which is why I split my thoughts previously into two time segments) and would run no risk of the wolfpire vote.

I disagree with this point mostly because if we all voted normally and then last minute directed ourselves to no lynch, the issue at hand would be that we would... really have nothing to go off of for a second phase, and while we can gesture about what alignments people would be hypothetically we wouldn't actually know the alignments for anyone for certain and would not be able to base information off people's votes because we wouldn't know... the alignments of the people who they voted for? Am I making sense? Because it's one thing to throw out a vote but understanding the consequences of the vote and how they tie back to the reasoning is really where a lot of the meat of speculation comes from

In addition if we decided to base werewolf action off of the results of the day phase which ended on a no lynch, there's one problem with that: a lynch can kill vampires whereas the werewolf action is less efficient than a lynch since it can loop around vampires and kill random bystanders. So yes, the wolfpire vote would probably not happen but we also would be unable to kill a mafia vampire player person in the night phase entirely

I'm probably going around in circles right now

I'm also somewhat confused that your list of people you are suspicious of seem to be everyone who did not participate in the tie ... and Luxaria, but maybe this is a weird observation I noticed. I dunno, I'm reading too deep into this but it feels weird that you stated an alternative to the tie and admitted it was a little risky (in Luxaria's quote), but then your suspicions appear to lie with people who no voted, no lynched, or... Luxaria in your suspicions post (but not your investivig list). I also find it a lil' weird you suspect Rasei for going along with the flow when I basically did the same thing bursting in late in the phase but maybe that's because of the no lynch, in which see my comment before

If it was a vamp voting through the wolf that took Kotakia's life then I really wonder why they'd direct it at her and not at you. She seemed very vanilla, so it'd make no sense to target her since they're more likely to go after a power role.

Also a good point by Alice: Kotakia had outright claimed vanilla. Assuming one is a vampire who wants to play chicken with this claim between two town members, it makes no sense for a power role to claim as vanilla especially since two of the power roles are investigative (and cannot be counterclaimed safely) and one of the power roles is instrumental in determining if lynches go awry because the mayor would obviously know what the heck is up with the lynch if it goes weird. A power role would obviously not be incredibly suicidal and risk being lynched without claiming or dumping investigation or putting themselves up for possible RNG lynch; it's to the best interest of the power role to avoid unnecessary lynches (unless bomb or something) to assist town.

Unless vampires are doing some super mind-game tricks and wanting to make drandahl suspicious or something

Gosh that was a lot of words and I dunno if all of them made sense, my head isn't in the game right now and I apologize

Also I agree with what alcasync said about active speculators, but I also wanted to get this post out because my activity is incredibly sporadic at the moment and I don't think I'll get in a post until this time tomorrow so, uh

I don't have time for a full post; this will be my last post.

"If it was a vamp voting through the wolf that took Kotakia's life then I really wonder why they'd direct it at her and not at you. She seemed very vanilla, so it'd make no sense to target her since they're more likely to go after a power role."

To talk to this, I would like to point out that Kotakia would be much less likely to look suspicious. Frankly, I did look scummy at the time of the lynch (and whether I do or not now, make your decision. I'd like to point out that we're putting a lot of focus on my particular reasoning here. At least I gave a stab at unravelling people's votes; Nautilus, I don't suspect you because honestly I don't think you "went with the flow." You've been pretty open with your opinions whenever you do speak.

Hm, well I did wait for a while. Here's what I was going to discuss in my earlier post...

We know the witch is dead, the werewolf is enthralled, and that Kotakia was vanilla town. None of our power roles have been converted. At this point, the monster hunter has gotten two investigations off. The squatter has also had some time to observe one person (even if they chose Kiyoko, I think they wouldn't be able to swap to someone new until tonight). The monster hunter has not detected anyone suspicious yet, else they would have said something. So either they've found two town (and possibly a power role), or a town and the werewolf.

The squatter is a bit more ambiguous. They haven't spoken up, but that doesn't mean they didn't find a vampire. For example, until a full moon night, both a vampire and a monster hunter would look exactly the same. I don't think there's any role other than those two that would be active every night until a full moon. That said, an option could be to press the monster hunter in a lynch and get them to claim. This kind of goes back to what Alcasync originally stated at the start of D1 about there being no protective roles and it being advantageous to claim. Even if it seems counter-intuitive, the squatter could press the person that's gone out every night, and if the monster hunter claims then that's another confirmed town. If not? Vampire. I think if the squatter had noticed this, they would be inclined to speak up regardless... but it's tough to get a good read on exactly what they're thinking.

There could be overlap, also. Let's assume the monster hunter investigated the same target as squatter, and the squatter wasn't squatting Kiyoko. The squatter would be aware that their target was checked, since the only other thing that could visit would... kill that player. That means we'd have two people able to clear one town. This case would be the most unfortunate, since...

Hm. If the squatter targeted one person, and the monster hunter targeted two others, and neither of these were Kotakia or Kiyoko, then in theory that's 7 people cleared right there (Monster Hunter, Squatter, 2x Investigations, 1x Squat, Kiyoko, and Kotakia). In theory, we could have 7/9 people cleared. Which is why I brought up to Drandahl that we stand to gain a lot from him dying.

He hasn't claimed a power role. No one has defended him, which suggests that either the squatter or the monster hunter didn't investigate him (though, technically the squatter gains a lot from just letting him die and swapping to a new target). Alternatively, both might not want to make themselves known. This might not be obvious to the monster hunter and squatter, but if they did investigate Drandahl and cleared him as town, then that's 3 people cleared, we still have Kiyoko and Kotakia cleared, and we could point the werewolf to one of the targets that hasn't been investigated.

But, there's a lot of "what-ifs" in all of this. It relies on the werewolf being compliant. It relies on the monster hunter and squatter not overlapping. It relies on the werewolf not being Drandahl, actually.

However, let's think about these what-ifs being valid. Let's say no one defended Drandahl because they hadn't checked him (which might not be unreasonable, since there's a bit of a metagame that's been previously alluded where certain players might get targeted first; Kiyoko dying early supports this, and there's a good chance the monster hunter might have investigated her). And he hasn't defended himself with a claim or anything to that nature. There's a good chance he's either vanilla town or vampire.

So let's say he just dies and he's vanilla town. This means we now have a single vanilla town, three power roles, a werewolf, and the two vampires. Basically, everyone except for the vampires are unique. Like Alcasync and myself pointed out earlier... it's kind of unfair, in a way? But everyone could just claim and we lynch-test/investigate the doubled up claims... and we win.

Anyway, despite a lot of variables being all over the place, the tl;dr: Werewolf willing, Drandahl being targeted tonight provides a good chance of providing information that hasn't already been cleared by our power roles.

Oh, and to respond to High Seraph and others. There's one other reason I pushed for the tie scenario that I didn't state outright: Town gets to make the vampires conform to town's plan. If we're dictating what the vampires can and can't do, and limiting their ability to properly utilize their powers, we're already a step ahead of them. Think about the alternative of letting everyone just throw votes around willy nilly. This means the vampires can disguise themselves as town and try and push people for information, and since there won't be as strong of a consensus on who to lynch, it's more likely to see votes all over. That's what came close to happening. We had votes on 4, almost 5 people last phase, I think. That takes the entire lynch phase completely out of town's hands because there are two vampire votes and a hidden werewolf vote. Our only tool is a mayor vote, and you know what happens? Tying votes gives us the best chance at hiding the mayor while making them effective as possible, and letting them gather information.

This is all my personal opinion, of course, but I'm having trouble seeing a downside to a tie vote--at least in the context of the others. Yeah, perhaps some people could jump into the strategy really easy and conceal themselves as town. And now you're saying we should look at those people. Is that not getting information in and of itself?

Both Nautilus and Drandahl posted while I typed this up. I'm going to submit it before I read their posts, just so this gets up early enough for it to possibly matter?

I would suggest the monster hunter investigate Luxaria or nautilus if they haven't already. Or me if they really want but I've been planning on claiming my role tomorrow so. uvu

Edit: And if wolf kill somehow redirects onto me, reread my posts and a few things should be obvious.

A loud howl gave the monster hunter a direction for their search. They soon found a trail of broken bushes. Following the trail led them in a loop back towards the village.

The werewolf had gone back into the village some sort of primal instinct driving them to kill. Whoever the beast found first would be the one to perish and they sensed many people in their homes. The werewolf was ready to break into a home when they were distracted by the faint sound of light footsteps behind them.

The monster hunter thought they had caught a glimpse of their target but in an instant the target was gone. Slowly and stealthily they proceeded to the door of the house where they thought they had just seen the beast.

They put an ear up to the door in case the beast had entered the building from the other side and was terrorizing the occupants of the house but the hunter heard nothing. As the hunter was about to leave two large furry hands with long gnarled claws reached over the roof of the house grabbing the hunter by the head and pulling them up onto the roof.

The monster hunter was taken by surprise but managed to kick against the wall of the house both propelling up in the direction they were headed (and therefore avoiding breaking their neck) and probably alerting the occupants of the home to beware. They then bit the one of the large hands that was covering their face.

More out of surprise then pain the werewolf let go of the hunter. The hunter still laying on the roof quickly grabbed the crossbow that was strapped to their back. In preparation for a fight with a werewolf the hunter had kept the bow loaded with a silver bolt. They started to take aim as the beast took a step toward them.

Right before the crossbow was released the roof collapsed underneath the two of them. The bolt flew into the shoulder of the werewolf rather than the heart as was intended. The hunter was momentarily stunned from the unexpected fall. In anger and pain the werewolf started lashing up the hunter with their long claws. The hunter was shredded by the beasts claws.

After destroying the hunter the beast turned on the occupants of the house. One of them was wielding a torch. Having had a fill of the desired killing and not fancying the possibility of being burned, the werewolf ran straight through the wall of the house and out into the darkness.

AliceofOz was mauled to death. They were the monster hunter. They were human.
The ratio is now 4:2:1.
Day 3 begins.

Gut reaction: I feel like that has to be a redirect.

Edit:

Vote: Drandahl

I just realized Alice was the Monster Hunter. Ugh, now we have no idea which two players she cleared. That is really unfortunate.

She didn't investigate two towns. She voted drandahl for a reason I think.

I thought that might be a possibility as well. It'd be a good way to stay silent about her role while making use of her investigation.