Vampires win! COTN

Hmm, my first impression is that I like the sound of it. I want to apply your earlier logic that Drandahl isn't a power role, given that he didn't defend himself... but then he wasn't really around, either. However, if his defense doesn't hinge on a claim, then that means he's either a vampire or a vanilla town. If he's not a vampire and is actually vanilla town, that means town only has one-ofs for the remaining four players. From there we can deduce the rest, I think.

Also, another advantage of encouraging the wolf to hit one target is that the monster hunter will know whether or not to avoid this target, and thus not waste an investigation. For that matter... hm...

I just typed up a long post based on what-ifs and speculation, but I think I'll wait to see how both Drandahl and the other players respond before I post it up. In the meanwhile, I'm going to review the thread and the D2 events and see if anything sticks out. Tl;dr: Should the werewolf cooperate, I am receptive to the idea of Drandahl being investivig'd, and I would like to hear others' thoughts and opinions on this idea.

This feels kind of like a pseudo lynch phase.

I've been trying to analyze the votes from the day phase.

I do feel like drandahl and Kotakia might both be town just based on the way the day phase went. Usually there is more of an attempt to tip the lynch one way or another, but here there seemed to be an attempt to get it exactly even. Maybe mafia wasn't worried because they knew they could use the werewolf vote in their favor.

My guess is that if both drandahl and Kotakia are town, then mafia split their votes one for each, or else at least one mafia member voted NV/NL. Otherwise, if drandahl is mafia, then the other mafia likely voted for Kotakia too.

I have some idea of who might be town based on things said in thread, but I would really rather hear the thoughts of others before I share what I think. I would also maybe like for the usually vocal speculators to hold back until others have posted? (So umm... nautilus and Luxaria I guess.) You don't have to listen to me, really, I just feel like the people who post long posts have a very strong influence in thread (this is not a bad thing! ;v; ) and can sometimes influence the suspicions of others, and I would rather hear the umm, uninfluenced version first? Ahhh, I'm not sure that came out right. I hope that didn't sound mean. >n< I-I do really want to hear your thoughts! I just want to hear from the quieter people first is all.

Why did Kotakia have to die. I liked the blue. Not sure whether she died from RNG or mayor/werewolf vote. Kind of confusing right now. ._.

Also I feel like a lot of pressure's been put on the wolf lol.

Well I woke up to a LOT of new content so I haven't read anything carefully yet. But since I've been asked to offer my thoughts...

@Lux I don't think I played a big role in this whole vote race thing you guys got going on. Sure, I was the one who voted for drandahl first but we had others vote in the same way as well.

@drandahl Lux, nautilus, and you voted for Kotakia right? Or are you referring to the werewolf vote?

If it was a vamp voting through the wolf that took Kotakia's life then I really wonder why they'd direct it at her and not at you. She seemed very vanilla, so it'd make no sense to target her since they're more likely to go after a power role.

I think that if the wolf strikes, it'd most likely be at drandahl and if not then the Hunter would most likely investigate him, so we'll just have to wait until one of them speaks up and proves his innocence. Then again, they can do whatever they feel right. Honestly wolf's random vig shot is 100% guaranteed to hit town so I'm not super excited about it, especially since we've lost 2 towns already.

Well there's nothing the wolf can do, since if they don't choose a target, then one will be randomized and that's even less helpful because then they can't do the redirection investigation thing. ;v;

I do agree that we should figure out wolf target in thread so that monster hunter can target someone else, though.

Actually if we all wanted to use a kind of unfair strategy, we could have all the power roles claim since claiming is allowed, and then of the remaining four(I think?) players, have the monster hunter investigate one and have the wolf kill another, and then by that point we should know if the remaining two are both mafia, both town, or one of each.

alcasync wrote:I would also maybe like for the usually vocal speculators to hold back until others have posted? (So umm... nautilus and Luxaria I guess.)

It's fine! And it's not mean! I'm of like mind, which is why I instead saved that long post I had typed up instead of just including it in my last post. I do want to hear from the others, too >w<

Ooh, and

@ Alice, I just wanted to know what you thought of the procession of events and votes and if anything stood out to you, since I know you weren't around when the craziness happened. But it seems you want to read through it carefully, first, so take your time. <3

P.S. I can be blue like Sayaka for you ;o; pls notice me

Edit: Twice ninja'd.

Edit 2: Heh...

alcasync wrote:Actually if we all wanted to use a kind of unfair strategy, we could have all the power roles claim since claiming is allowed, and then of the remaining four(I think?) players, have the monster hunter investigate one and have the wolf kill another, and then by that point we should know if the remaining two are both mafia, both town, or one of each.

Funny you think that... because town can pretty much win tonight if certain things align. This is what I theorized in the post I'm saving for later.

Ninja'd a few times and gave up for a while. Adding response now.

Thoughts, after gathering developments up until 2 hours before rollover...

drandahl: Most suspicious guy of all! Gosh, I really wish he would be more vocal in-thread, so I could get a better read on him! Haven't checked his reflection recently or seen him outdoors in the daylight though...

nautilus: Seemed to be anti-tie early on, and has been acting pretty reasonably so far. I don't have a lot of experience playing with them, but they seem in general pretty town-y to me.

Luxaria: Voted kotakia at 11:37 to maintain a tie (2x2), claiming that the threat of invisivotes are hard to consider at that point. Also early proponent of a 3x3x3 tie. Really orchestrated the vote balancing.

rasei: Kind of just... went with the flow? Maybe she didn't know how to handle this situation, but I do find her antics somewhat suspicious. In the end, she did keep from voting on either side, and there could be other explanations for her behavior that I don't want to get into for the interest of town. It could be that she might just be a little unsure how to vote when she doesn't strong evidence, but still wants her vote to be helpful if we're orchestrating some tie scenario? Eh, I'm still thinking about this and would like to hear from her.

high seraph: Not much direct interaction (though I'm one to talk). I can think of some reasons for not voting, but I don't have much explanation for their level and type of interaction. I am marking them suspect.

alcasync: Second to vote me, at 8:43am, to push a tie situation according to her. Has been pretty useful in coordinating votes and clarifying around the common (and expected) pattern of power roles keeping us from mislynching them via claim. Seems in general pretty town, though I don't know what she's like as mafia... still, she's off my suspect list for now.

Sammiya: No direct interaction (though I'm one to talk). I understand life got in the way for her, but I don't not suspect her at this point...

AliceofOz: Her vote on me did seem odd at first, but it's not like that would be a sensible mafia tactic, so... that's not really that suspicious.

Thoughts, after gathering developments in the last 2 hours before rollover...

nautilus: Seems pretty town. They're pretty helpful in trying to piece together the frantic situation without really driving us toward that situation in the first place.

Luxaria: I'm pretty confused about how to consider them. They've been pretty influential in coordinating things, but I'm not 100% sure I am confident the force-a-tie scenario was a good idea. I get it's truly an experiment in the most literal sense, but it still seems somewhat risky considering the wolfpire vote. While I guess that's somewhat the point, it's not that revealing if both sides of the tie are town (i.e. maf could just pick sides that balance the tie, as town would have, and then pick off as they choose). I get that there's plausible interactions with mayor, but it puts mayor in a very weird spot, if they don't know how to use their votes. Maybe I just don't understand how some folks pictured that playing out.

Kotakia: Dead, obviously. They did an amazing job considering their situation. I think if I had been wolfpire-voted, Kotakia would have been a good all-but-confirmed town.

tl;dr...
Suspect list: High Seraph, Luxaria, Rasei, Sammiya. Would like to hear from these folks, though I agree with alca around the utility of having less active players drive some discussion.

NOTE: SORRY FOR THE LONG POST.

Also, I think I found our solution, guys.

drandahl wrote:Also, I think I found our solution, guys.

drandahl wrote:but I'm not 100% sure I am confident the force-a-tie scenario was a good idea

I'm not going to pretend it didn't have risks, and I wasn't sure of how well it'd do, myself, but I am curious. I've seen this criticism a few times, I think, or at least the sentiment. What do you propose to be a better option?

Hrm, I've been thinking about this (regarding better options). I don't think I can come up with a more information-churning tactic that isn't even more risky, so it was a good idea in that respect. Maybe I'm more just cautious about the risks and also about how far this was pushed.

At the end of the day, we could have pulled out into a no-lynch by asking for a few vote changes, and I know there was enough discussion around that time to feel confident we had enough players to do that. We still would have gathered information around how players acted up until that point (which is why I split my thoughts previously into two time segments) and would run no risk of the wolfpire vote.

That said, I wasn't active at that time, so I can't be too critical. Also, I have to admit that we did get a lot of player interaction, which is good. And town is still in a safe state. And also, considering our (probable) pending investivig at that time, it did make a lot of sense to push for a lot of information reveal, so our wolfer has a better chance of netting the right player.

EDIT: Also, I'm going to bed. Goodnight folks.

I'm not seeing any reason for werewolf not to target drandahl. In fact, he seems to have avoided the topic of his own potential death entirely? So... I'm going to guess that he's at least not a power role.

If monster hunter and werewolf had to coordinate, I would suggest werewolf go after the less active players and monster hunter go after the more active players. That way, we can get the alignments of the players leading the thread without risking their contributions, and we can get the alignments of the players who will be hardest to read via wolf. I'm really sorry, I know people are busy and I don't mean to blame anyone for not being able to check the thread once every ten minutes, but if a town player gets accidentally vig killed I would really rather it not be a really active speculating town player. ;v;

Alca, I didn't focus on my own death because I thought you had changed your mind. I did have some write-up about it, but got ninja'd and detained then it wound up not mattering...

"""
Alca, I can understand your reasoning. I'd like to short-circuit our use of a investivig, but I honestly don't think I'll push to directly oppose that plan at the moment. Although 5% chance of being a wolfer is better than many possible outcomes -- so if that's what we decide, then great. Let's keep discussion going though, please.

I'd like to comment that a mislynch right now could put is in a 4:1:2 scenario. That's not too bad, assuming we can coordinate well next round.

As a final comment, we also have our monster hunter who can act tonight. It would be unfortunate if wolfer got him/her by mistake, so let's be definitive as a group at the end of the day here to allow time for claiming. We also should be clear so our monster hunter can target a different person.
"""

I'm holding to this response for the time being, and would really like to see other discussion before we resolve to off me. I'm going to be out at a company event this evening from 6:30-9:30 PM PST, as a heads up.

To push that other discussion, I still want to hear what High Seraph, and Rasei think we should do.

I'm starting to think that we as a forum should stop waiting on other players to post since everyone seems busy and are all in different time zones. Or at least start coming up for backup plans for when someone doesn't reply. ;v;

drandahl, if not you, who would you suggest the werewolf target tonight?

I would like to hear Drandahl's answer to Alcasync's question as well. Granted, we still have no idea if the werewolf is on board with us, but so far Drandahl's only comments have been that he's both okay with the situation, and...

Drandahl wrote:I'd like to comment that a mislynch right now could put is in a 4:1:2 scenario. That's not too bad, assuming we can coordinate well next round.

As a final comment, we also have our monster hunter who can act tonight. It would be unfortunate if wolfer got him/her by mistake, so let's be definitive as a group at the end of the day here to allow time for claiming. We also should be clear so our monster hunter can target a different person.

Do you mean tomorrow's lynch, or are you using lynch as a nickname for this investivig trial we have going on? But otherwise... You haven't fielded an objection to being targeted by the wolf, but you say, "It'd be unfortunate if wolfer got [the monster hunter] by mistake." If we operate under the assumption that the wolf goes through with the plan and attacks you, then how would it get the monster hunter by mistake unless you're a vampire? Unless you're claiming that you're the monster hunter?

By the way, I said earlier I'd hold off doing a longer post, and rollover is in 2hr 20m. I'll give it until an hour before rollover before I decide if I'll post the thoughts I hinted at when this night phase began.