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Ugh I want to throw out a post but I am not in the mood to go digging right now. Okay I'll just reply to posts made while I was gone:
This is a reasonable stance and I see where you are coming from, but I think there's a potential for more downsides at this point.
Hypothetical: Mitsu votes on herself and gets two guns. She double-taps someone and they die as whatever alignment. Mitsu is NK'd. We're back at square one and ratio is 2:5 or 1:6 with limited inferences onto the other 7 players, but they all have killproofs.
Alternatively, Mitsu votes for lulu. lulu shoots plotstickers. Mitsu shoots chinomi. Mafia NKs angelstar. Now we start D3 and lulu, plotstickers, chinomi, and angelstar are all without killproof. That's 2:7 with 2 less total killproofs than the other. However, I'd argue the potential for information is greater. If we have the first scenario where Mitsu dies, we're back where we have been at the start of D1 and D2. But the other possibility means we get a day phase where player pushes towards certain outcomes matter a whole lot more. It also means anyone that gets a gun from then-on can kill any of these targets. You get a lot more variables to weigh, I think, because...
If one person has two guns, we can weigh their actions, but it has a chance of being uninformed. Say Mitsu lives while double-tapping a town angelstar with solid reasoning. Is it, "Oh she's obviously mafia" or "angelstar was scummy it was justified" or "it was a mistake it happens", and we sit there unsure on Mitsu. Hell, what if the person to double-tap is someone like Tiki that thread struggles to evaluate? Mafia has less impetus to kill him if he's town and show his alignment. Tiki double-taps someone that flips town, and where do we go from there? Unfortunately, we can't guarantee another payoff of 1:1, and we can only lose so many alcas. This said, there's definite value in making it so mafia has to respond to the thread rather than us respond to mafia.
If I were to tl;dr: Both short-term and long-term, do you expect more information to be attained from giving one person two guns, or two people one gun? My thoughts are that I wanted more guns out to strip more killproofs (granting more guns) so we see more player interactions and reactions, whereas the rallying approach limits our information to a select few, who at that point are more likely to die.
Man I wanted to address other posts, but this got too long.
@ ezz reads:
I agree with everything on gun granting except giving one to katze. I especially agree with the point on Rasei.
@ Aeiou:
This is true and it's why I'm considering certain players for a vote tonight, if I have to deliver it.
@ thread // tl;dr
This is a good start. We have 6 hours. Aeiou, ezzelin, sort of katze, and sort of Tiki have announced definitive thoughts/reads.
I would like more from katze and Tiki beyond what they've said. I'd like to see if ezzelin has commentary on what I said above. I'd like to see more from the players that were not mentioned, but I realize timezones, obligations, and also playstyles interfere to some extent. I'll take anything you feel like offering on the plan this phase and the players. And for everyone: Who do you want to deliver the vote and who do you want the vote to be on?
Me, personally, I am down to vote on one of Ninfia*, Tiki the Troll, and possibly ezzelin or Rasei. I am not sure who else I'd be okay with delivering the vote--maybe ezzelin or Rasei. I do not want to self-vote, but if I were to have someone self-vote I am not sure who I'd prefer, but it would not be katze.
* Edit: I realize at this stage Ninfia might be too inactive to use the gun, or not be informed enough to make a decision either way (if she's town). This stems largely from that this is the best way to poke Ninfia, when she's in an unusual position in terms of reads/activity from my perspective.
ezzelin wrote:For that reason, I'd rather give double guns to someone who reads ??? or maybe town but not sure. I'd rather keep the killproof intact on the ones we think are highly likely or near-confirmed town. Even if we end up giving the guns to a mafia, we're more likely than not to learn a lot + possibly learn that they're mafia that way, so I think that's our most efficient play here. In addition to that, it allows us some control over who actually dies /can be killed. I'd also support double-shooting in the future as well, because less people without killproof = more control over who lives because the mafia has to pop the killproof first.
This is a reasonable stance and I see where you are coming from, but I think there's a potential for more downsides at this point.
Hypothetical: Mitsu votes on herself and gets two guns. She double-taps someone and they die as whatever alignment. Mitsu is NK'd. We're back at square one and ratio is 2:5 or 1:6 with limited inferences onto the other 7 players, but they all have killproofs.
Alternatively, Mitsu votes for lulu. lulu shoots plotstickers. Mitsu shoots chinomi. Mafia NKs angelstar. Now we start D3 and lulu, plotstickers, chinomi, and angelstar are all without killproof. That's 2:7 with 2 less total killproofs than the other. However, I'd argue the potential for information is greater. If we have the first scenario where Mitsu dies, we're back where we have been at the start of D1 and D2. But the other possibility means we get a day phase where player pushes towards certain outcomes matter a whole lot more. It also means anyone that gets a gun from then-on can kill any of these targets. You get a lot more variables to weigh, I think, because...
If one person has two guns, we can weigh their actions, but it has a chance of being uninformed. Say Mitsu lives while double-tapping a town angelstar with solid reasoning. Is it, "Oh she's obviously mafia" or "angelstar was scummy it was justified" or "it was a mistake it happens", and we sit there unsure on Mitsu. Hell, what if the person to double-tap is someone like Tiki that thread struggles to evaluate? Mafia has less impetus to kill him if he's town and show his alignment. Tiki double-taps someone that flips town, and where do we go from there? Unfortunately, we can't guarantee another payoff of 1:1, and we can only lose so many alcas. This said, there's definite value in making it so mafia has to respond to the thread rather than us respond to mafia.
If I were to tl;dr: Both short-term and long-term, do you expect more information to be attained from giving one person two guns, or two people one gun? My thoughts are that I wanted more guns out to strip more killproofs (granting more guns) so we see more player interactions and reactions, whereas the rallying approach limits our information to a select few, who at that point are more likely to die.
Man I wanted to address other posts, but this got too long.
@ ezz reads:
I agree with everything on gun granting except giving one to katze. I especially agree with the point on Rasei.
@ Aeiou:
Aeiou wrote:I dont think its super dangerous to give someone like psuedo lulu a gun because even if they are rowdy and go wild it at this point wouldnt even kill someone (assuming they get the gun by being the vote target, theyd be the only one without the bulletproof and wouldnt shoot themselves)
This is true and it's why I'm considering certain players for a vote tonight, if I have to deliver it.
@ thread // tl;dr
This is a good start. We have 6 hours. Aeiou, ezzelin, sort of katze, and sort of Tiki have announced definitive thoughts/reads.
I would like more from katze and Tiki beyond what they've said. I'd like to see if ezzelin has commentary on what I said above. I'd like to see more from the players that were not mentioned, but I realize timezones, obligations, and also playstyles interfere to some extent. I'll take anything you feel like offering on the plan this phase and the players. And for everyone: Who do you want to deliver the vote and who do you want the vote to be on?
Me, personally, I am down to vote on one of Ninfia*, Tiki the Troll, and possibly ezzelin or Rasei. I am not sure who else I'd be okay with delivering the vote--maybe ezzelin or Rasei. I do not want to self-vote, but if I were to have someone self-vote I am not sure who I'd prefer, but it would not be katze.
* Edit: I realize at this stage Ninfia might be too inactive to use the gun, or not be informed enough to make a decision either way (if she's town). This stems largely from that this is the best way to poke Ninfia, when she's in an unusual position in terms of reads/activity from my perspective.
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