crossroads ✕ town win

HELLO I am here but I will be gone for a couple hours, just checking in on the thread.

re: Rasei - I do feel like some of the arguments she's been putting forth are... a little weird (re: copier copying drummer, the aforementioned two kills a night that Ninfia pointed out)?

At the same time, not counting katagi, there are five other mafia members, and I feel like given the fact that literally everyone else has voted on katagi except for Rasei, her dissenting argument would draw a weird amount of attention if she were mafia...? If the mafia seriously wanted to go with the "oops idk about this lynch angle", I feel like they would probably spread out this argument among the rest of the mafia vs concentrating it all on Rasei. But I digress

I don't think we should be dissuaded from this lynch anyways because it's our first real solid lead on mafia, and katagi may be a bomb but I don't t...hink we should shy down from this lynch out of bomb fears because katagi's ability has already severely hampered speculation so far this game. Like this is a game that's supposed to be flavourful and all we have is a drum solo and it's like... D2 :(

It's also possible that katagi's trying to psyche us out to throw the lynch off. And if katagi ends up being lynchproof/bulletproof/I use these terms interchangeably, at least we can break the lynchproof and have a vig shoot katagi in the night phase?

Rasei, if there was anyone else you'd vote for this phase (excluding nv/nl), who would you vote?

Just explain it was only two kills in all not two per a night. I would vote either Lux, Kiyoko, or Cure because I feel like one of the heavy hitters are mafia.

Rasei cross her arms, 'Cure is the least like on my list through given what I know about her ability.

Kiyoko is a tiny little person she couldn't hit a fly if she tried

Ok no but seriously, Rasei being paranoid à la drandahl isn't that suspicious, as not a lot of people are comfortable being the last to vote for a confirmed mafia. I mention drandahl bc I have vivid memories of a few instances in which he reacted much the same way lmao. It seems scummy, but then again it's not that important, u kno?

oh yeah and 99% of the time a confirmed mafia urges ppl to vote them, they aren't really a bomb so yeah

I... hrm. I guess the weird thing is that you asked that same group of people for advice last phase but I digress.

I'm at a thing but it's going very slow... hello I am here.

Anyways, I also kinda agree with Lucas that Rasei might just be really hesitant... on being the last voter on katagi more than anything? Either way, I don't feel like the kills upon death thing is particularly likely - that'd be a ridiculous amount of killpower for a fairly large mafia concentrated on a single phase?

Actually, (and I know this needs to be taken with a grain of salt because it's coming from me, and we have yet to see katagi flip, but since katagi's post is pretty damning...). I actually don't believe that Cure or I or someone more experienced with maf gambits would be mafia in this scenario. Because I firmly believe that if Raie or I were mafia, we would have played up katagi's role in a way that might seem more pro-town. For example:

- Maybe not using it N0 which is questionably anti-town
- Definitely not using it twice in a row which is unquestionably anti-town
- Playing up the "This action blocks the NK" if no NK shows up
- Pushing katagi to build up a false narrative in thread to the point where the ratio combined with reasonable doubt would lead people to be hesitant about the lynch

The fact that katagi did not push for the drum blocks NK thing in D1, but only suggested it and then dropped the subject reads to me that there wasn't a solid long-term plan for what to do with katagi's role after firing off all its uses. The way katagi's role was handled, combined with the fact that all the NKs have probably been blocked so far, makes me believe that mafia is thinking short-term and going for the obvious strategies (firing off abilities right away, going after maybe popular protection targets).

So for this reason I'm just straight up not suspicious of Raie, who I know would be more tricky about it as maf, or Mitsu, who is conservative as hell and would never allow for two drums in a row.

I'm also for in-thread reasons (e.g. hints and stuff) not currently suspicious of Crypsis, chinomi, high seraph, Five, Vowels, Ninfia or Ace, so this leaves my pool of people I'm willing to vote as:


➳ Luxaria
➳ angelstar
➳ Entelechy
➳ katagi
➳ Tiki The Troll
➳ Mr. Gerbear
➳ Rasei
➳ ezzelin

Rasei wrote:Rasei cross her arms, 'Cure is the least like on my list through given what I know about her ability.

What does this mean?



Also, EVERY mafia member that gets hit by the whole game bandwagon claims bomb to psyche people out. Every time. They're never a bomb.

tbh actual bomb would not claim bomb, they would just die and explode people and laugh

Actually caught up after reading all the posts.

Kiyo makes a very good point. I... know I would have pushed all the mafia to run with the idea that the drum solo blocks the NK, especially after it happened the second time, but that didn't happen sooo. I also think that if Kiyo were mafia she wouldn't have said anything about my ability being blocked when i targeted her to reduce the information I got.

idk about rasei. On the one hand, she's acting the way she usually does, on the other hand there was something about how she's been posting that I can't really put into words that led me to act on her. She was also against voting katagi long before Katagi showed up and only about five or six people had votes down. It was still after Saki showed up and straight up said Katagi is the drummer, however, so there was no real reason for Rasei to be against it. Coupled with the fact that Rasei was one of the people who was putting forth the idea that the drummer might be town/do weird things that could make it pro-town, and the theory that there isn't a Supremely Slippery Mafia Player on the team (or they're busy/inactive), I wouldn't be surprised if she was mafia.

I'm currently most suspicous of Gerry, Tiki, Duck and Angel.

In retrospect if katagi flips maf, is a bomb, and explodes, then I feel like Rasei's hesitance warrants a little more examination since mafia'll duck out of the way if necessary to avoid murdering one of their own.

My lack of suspicion on Rasei's part is, admittedly, mostly ... because, uh. I feel like I picked up a hint on what Rasei's role could possibly be, and if she's this role and town, then I can see her being anxious about being taken out by a katagi-bomb? I don't disagree though that some of her other comments are a little weird (fosing everyone she asked advice for the previous day phase, suggesting the drummer might be copied, etc.,).

I do agree with the fact that it seems like mafia is trying to go for a quick win versus the long haul. I'm going to spew some thoughts here, bear with me:

With Kiyoko bringing up easy protection targets, I wouldn't be surprised if mafia had tried to kill Aeiou (or Raie, but Aeiou's more linked to the drummer thing) last night, since Aeiou had brought up that they possibly knew the identity of the drummer way before anyone else did, but never outed the name. I can see mafia targeting Aeiou to prevent that name from ever getting out, but here's some other thoughts:

I feel like if there was a mafia player who caught onto Aeiou's probe (since the whole Aeiou asking katagi a question randomly would be more telling to mafia, who know that katagi is the drummer vs town who wouldn't pick up a subtle prod like that), a more conservative mafia would've told katagi not to act, since:

- Acting twice is pretty much universally anti-town and cannot be spun any other way
-- I can see mafia acting twice if they knew katagi was in a bad position and wanted to throw out all their uses, but given that no one seemed to press Aeiou to out their info or strongly fos katagi last phase, idk

- If Aeiou were to out whatever information they had in the next day phase and katagi acted twice in a row, then people'd obviously grill katagi on why they acted two nights in a row, and it'd be hard to get out of that situation

So, in the end: I feel either maf was confident that the identity of the drummer wouldn't be exposed and risked acting twice, killing any way to spin this role as pro-town, maf is trying to gamble and sweep the game quickly, or maf is slightly disorganized and is currently in no plan mode or short term plan mode

Popping back in to say:

On the subject of mafia gambits!! The only thing I could possibly see here is Katagi having a death ability/mafia deciding Katagi is expendable after all the drumming so they set up a plan to preemptively bus them via Saki and/or Vowels in order to clear one (or both, depending) of the afforementioned players. Saki/Vowels would have much more useful abilities to mafia or once they're cleared as town, they can easily just chill and coast until endgame. I don't think this is very likely, because I think a lot of better plans could have been made that didn't result in Katagi dying quite so soon. Also, town probably would have mislynched today if Sakivowels hadn't said anything.

Very unlikely, but I wanted to toss it out there anyway.


MITSU YOU ARE ONE POST AWAY FROM 1337 POSTS.

I feel like the way this game was set up 6:12 ratio, town with possibly a lot of protects and evidently a lot of investigations since I've picked up on at least five investigative/watcher/tracker roles of some kind based on in-thread hints, the best mafia strategy would be to gun for three mislynches and end the game asap. I don't see bussing katagi as a valid early-game strategy, even with a death ability.

re: Rasei, I def understand why you're suspicious and I also think she's behaving a little oddly, but she might also have role-related reasons to be cautious. I'm not defending Rasei but I feel like while her behavior is weird for town, it's... equally weird for mafia. Since maf would be fully aware what katagi's robodrummer reveal post would signify, Rasei's "katagi hasn't posted and I don't want to lynch someone who hasn't given a defense" doesn't make much sense in that context. (Like, idk, I read that post as Rasei legitimately not realizing that katagi had posted and claimed drummer. That's just the vibe I get.) The only hesitation I have about this is that I feel like maf is possibly disorganized, and any behavior goes when maf doesn't have a clear in-thread narrative they're trying to push so maybe maf is going full yolo idefk

So I guess in the end I think Rasei's behavior warrants some suspicion, but not enough to focus on her entirely while there are still a lot of people who haven't volunteered any info yet. I'd rather try to get something out of the other people on your suspicion list (which roughly matches mine) which is... basically everyone who has yet to hint at some aspect of any of their abilities (Gerry, Tiki, angel, whoever else).

Is it uncouth to ask if anybody targeted me the past 2 nights? I haven't gotten any info whatsoever, we've basically had no rollover info all game yet, here on D2, and we had a probable Maf outed within minutes, meaning almost 0 discussion around where our votes should go.
I just...
want something to talk about...
so...
so bored...

At least, if I know if someone acted on me, I can maybe infer on more possibilities for why there have been no NKs, heh.
Acted in a way that's not a stun or jail, that is, since that completely nullifies all I can do, heh.

I refuse to believe you're bulletproof again tiki. Refuse.