Practice Match Mafia [Away Team Win]

Goodnight everyone! Sweet dreams!

Okay but seriously enough getting sidetracked.

@lucas, @drandahl, since you guys are the ones being side-eyed most beyond this whole Aeiou lynch situation, who do you guys think are maf?

Ninja'd by a duck. Good night!

Also fun fact, #6 and #13 are the only numbers that haven't been passed to so far.

Okay I made a chart and can't show you guys because it's got my number in it. But revisiting the NK theories in order of most to least likely scenarios, in my opinion.

Kiyoko or Luxaria as initial target

This implies that Sammie is #9, and the pass chain went:

Kiyo/Lux ► Sammie (#9) ► Ezz (#2) ▽ failed spike

If this is the scenario, it confirms Sammie as town.

Ezz as initial target

In which case, the chain looks like:

Ezz (#2) ▽ maf

If this is the scenario, then it's likely that Ezz was scarily accurate in her reads, so I'd like to repost this specpost:

Spoiler:

I kind of don't find it likely that maf would go for a rando over trying to take out one of the clears, so I'm inclined to believe the first scenario is what happened. I also don't think, based on in-thread activity, that maf would opt to take out Rasei over me or Luxaria.

Just to cover all bases, though, I also don't find it likely that Sammie would be targeted over Ezz or any of the clears, because Sammie hasn't really pushed any suspicions over the past few phases.

So I think these really are the scenarios worth looking at. I have a lot of faith in Ezz's spec in general, so if nothing else, I'm bringing up her post again so that we don't forget about her points.

Just noticed that I forgot to Vote: Aeiou. Not particularly because I think he's maf over other leads like dran, newguy, and possibly lucas. But mostly because I agree with the idea that we stand to get a lot of information either way.

Reasons I feel those three in particular are viable to look at have already been explained in one way or another by several people but I'm going to post my reasons so that's on the record.

Dran because of reasons already pointed out by Ezz and a lot of other people. I'm not entirely sure I buy the explanations he gave after he was asked to post up. I'm not entirely ready yet to really press at it until I get some more information.

NewDuckGuy because of just a lot of overzealous defending in the face of being questioned, blind reliance on one person (It is Kiyo, an almost entirely confirmed town to their credit), and what looks like directing language. What gets me the most is the overdefending. Going that hard or having an outburst tends to make me give discerning glares more than any other action in the game.
But, to their credit, they're new. I've never seen them play before. I'd feel uncomfortable throwing down a lynch on someone who's shaky logic can be chalked up to inexperience. I'd be willing to revisit it after we have more information as well.

HighSeraphLucas. Is Lucas.



That's what I got. And now I'm going to bed.

This was my thought as well. The moment Sammiya said she had passed to #2, I figured it made sense that she received a pass from the person that got served, since it looks like a few of us went for #9 last night. To head off the theory that this could be a mafia just claiming passing to #2, I will reiterate that I do think Sammiya is town based upon how the voting went. It really makes no sense to me for a mafia to bus their teammate that quickly/early in a vanilla game when even the people with suspicions were not voting on him. If it is some crazy gambit, kudos, but I am pretty sure we'll figure it out in the end if so. Meanwhile, Sammiya looks to me and several others as very pro-town.

For now, I feel pretty safe thinking that Sammiya is #9 (since that was also my read on the situation) at the very least. Obviously, she cannot confirm it.

So this then leaves the question of whether ezz was directly targeted. Honestly, I can't see mafia going for ezz (or Sammie, for that matter) over Kiyoko or Luxaria when we're both effectively cleared and talking a lot. Plus there's a good chance of killing one of us considering our main two options are passing it to mafia or passing it to a town that in theory has good reason to pass it back to us due to the safety of the math. Trying to kill ezz would be a much more valid tactic if there weren't cleared town talking up a storm. I do agree, though, that her spec was pretty good and is in line with what a number of us have been thinking and considering.

One final point is that if mafia want to kill someone like ezz, they have to anticipate ezz and other town possibly passing onto the "safe" numbers established D1 (8,9, 10, with potentially one number being up to chance at the time). Serving to a player that isn't Kiyoko, Luxaria, or Rasei runs the risk of going:

Town #1 -> Kiyoko/Luxaria/Rasei -> Town #2

Because statistically, the three of us have less of a chance of passing to one of the others than would another town passing to one of us. So not only would mafia be less likely to get their target on the first pass (as opposed to the 20-30% something chance of town passing to a mafia and dying), but they're also less likely to get one of the cleared targets, and instead might just clear/kill someone completely unintended. This isn't completely accurate, since in the end 2/3 of the cleared passed it to one of 8,9, and 10, and not every player seems to have focused their passes to those three numbers, either, but I think it is a point worth considering.

In the end, I don't think it matters which of the two of us got served, though I'm fairly confident it was us, and I'd hedge my bets it was actually you last phase. In either case, this means until we have reason to think otherwise, I'm inclined to believe Sammiya is town for both her D1 voting and the possible pass to ezz. The only question I would have for her:

@ Sammiya:

Was there a particular reason you chose to pass to #2 instead of one of the "safe" numbers established D1?

ty for validating my theory Lux

I stand by that #9 is probably a safe number regardless of whether or not it's Sammie, even if it's not a confirmed safe number via N0 pass.

#8 is a confirmed safe number

People who are reading carefully can figure out the other safe number but I would actually prefer we not pass to that one for reasons that would also be obvious to anyone reading closely.

For what it's worth, we get the most information out of people passing to numbers they haven't already passed to yet, so if you're not planning on passing to a safe number, I recommend going after a number we don't know much about.

---

That said, if we go by Kiyo/Lux/Rasei as confirmed town, Sammie as highly likely to be town, Raie and Tet as possible town based on behavior, that leaves:

Duck
Lucas
Aeiou
chinomi
drandahl

three out of the above five as mafia.

Chiblaire

Blairechi

Blairenomi

...

Blairenoms.

Yes. This is the name we will use.


Also, good point, I forgot to mention that #9 is probably safe regardless of its owner. Hmm... For mafia to orchestrate the plan we know they orchestrated, I'd feel safe ruling out chinomi/Aeiou/Duck as a pairing. I could see drandahl or Lucas combined with Tiki following through on it, which means the remaining could be filled by any of the others.*

One other thing to note is that with ezz being dead and town, the point ezz made about Duck not showing the process behind the math is more poignant considering we deemed it unlikely for both of them to be mafia as a result of their mathing (Sorry, Duck, I know math isn't Your Thing, but it's become lumped together with you due to early thread discussion).

Duck voting out Tiki is interesting to me in this scenario. We now know that ezz, who was the second vote on Tiki, was town. We're also 90% confident that Sammiya is town and led the vote. That means the following two votes decided it between Aeiou and Tiki, and they were done by Blairenoms and Duck. Food for thought.

* Edit: This is operating under the idea that the previously developed "town" reads are accurate. They might not be. This road can be crossed if/when we come to it.

OK I HAVENT READ EVERYTHING IN THE THREAD BUT i did come across cure's post saying i didnt claim my passes. I'm on Mobile and I have a thousand errands to run ao I'm gonna keep it simple: I've wrote this post a few times but never sent it because there are a number of things abt this game that are making me go "????". But I passed to #6 on N0 and to #8 on N1.

I didnt claim on n0 because I felt like it didn't matter once we had the claims from the players who were guaranteed to have actually made the passes. Since we don't have that resource anymore, I think claiming passes is useful, so here I am doing it.

Like I said I'm still going to be busy throughout the day but I'll definitely be back before rollover to place my vote. Atm I would vote either Aeiou or T3t/dran, since I think Raie might be on the right track with her lucas/t3t/dran theory.

But seriously whats with all the "oh man i cant read Lucas that makes me suspicious" Tho?? Are you trying to make me Cure 3.0?

Fwiw I think my spec has been consistent, even though I may have struggled initially with the game's concept and how to approach it strategically?? I'm more worried about players who are falling onto these inconsistencies at later points of the game bc.... As someone who is very familiar with hiding-behind-dumb-to-look-town strategy???? I'm getting a signal

ok peace out i gotta do stuff

Also, Lux is awarded a ☆ for making me smile last night.
Mr. Alice is awarded a ☆ for helping me out and joining the fray.

Coach Ninfia, that's not the reason you gave last night ~~~

Idk what u mean

this is what they warned you about do i need to call the authorities here

also wth did chi do to dig me in this hole i am not ok with the in-hole swap out get me outta here

high seraph wrote: But seriously whats with all the "oh man i cant read Lucas that makes me suspicious" Tho?? Are you trying to make me Cure 3.0?

WELL YOU ARE MY OBLIVIOUS OLDER BROTHER

oh wow we have siblings on the team? thats just more ammo for inter-team drama aw yee

Mr. Alice wrote:oh wow we have siblings on the team? thats just more ammo for inter-team drama aw yee

no blaire don't you remember snowball bash

lucas and rasei are my siblings and also apparently tet is my twin now?? so there's four of us i guess ???and that's why lucas gets scolded all the time because he's the WORST older brother

... actually since sammie and rasei are real life siblings, i guess that makes sammie our sister too so there's five of us, but I was also dating sammie in gs1 so I don't know what this means anymore

edit: also Kiyo and I are the same person, so I guess that means there's triplets in this family... except Kiyo is also dating Lucas sometimes I think what you should take away from this is that we are apparently a family with too many children that has uncomfortabe incest tendencies.