Gakuen Mafia EP04-EP08 [ENG SUB]

WH YDOES LUX KEEP NINJAING ME WITH LONG POSTS OH MY GOD im sorry i really need to sleep so i'm gonna post this and read yours when i get up in the morning THANK YOU FOR YOUR SPEC POSTS THO

@Jaiser
Good luck with IRL, hope to play again with you soon!

Rereading the thread I just realised how many players're unwilling to vote for X due to Y information. How many investigative roles are there in this game, lol? *not a serious question, i don't think it's a good idea to scrutinise our softclaims until it becomes immediately relevant to a lynch*

Regarding the phase stuns Primarily to @Luxaria, I think
I don't really think kiku's stun was that odd, primarily because I think it's natural for stunners to change strategy up between phases. Like, based purely off in-thread discussion without any role information, this is my thought process when I play as a town stunner:

N0: The person who's sending in the NK is probably going to be laying low and trying not to draw attention to themselves, so I'll stun someone quiet.
N1+: Based off discussion from D1, I'm going to stun the people who I suspect most of being scum.

(Comparatively as mafia on N0 I'd probably advocate stunning strong speculators because they know how to make the most use of their night actions. Since kiku's a newbie, I'm under the impression kiku's stunner is town-aligned.)

So like... Just personally speaking if I were the town stunner, Kiku would be a 100% normal choice for a n0 stun for me (except that I don't generally like acting on newbies, but putting that aside) and after that, I would probably start stunning the people who I think just acted off during d1.

For balance reasons I'm inclined to think that one dedicated (daily) stunner is town and the other dedicated stunner is maf. The logical conclusion of this is that at least one of Luxaria or eleni is town (because maf doesn't have much reason to stun their own teammate?). I don't feel super strongly about it, though, because (1) there's no guarantee that the two stuns that went through are the dedicated stuns, (2) there's not even any guarantee that both town and maf have dedicated stuns, (3) it does seem like we have weird roles in play. BASICALLY I'm not really inclined to make assumptions from rollover.

Still undecided on the jailer + third stun.

Regarding the redirect
tbh i completely forgot to fill in this section and i've come back to it but i'm sleepy and i don't have any particularly strong feelings about it so i'm going to just defer to the rest of the threadgoers

Regarding adawg kill

high seraph wrote:I think it might also have something to do with the thread's general reluctance to policy lynch inactives?

* If you believe adawg was NKd because the thread's leaning away from lynching inactives, that would require the inactives to be town, if I'm understanding correctly...? And the mafia wants to get rid of the town ratio that's less likely to be mislynched?
* I feel like this theory's been disproved since Jaiser's now been confirmed to be maf and they were quite inactive. Which'd make it more likely that they NKd ada because (1) easy target or (2) power role.

Regarding inactivity lynches
Personally I prefer the guilt of voting out inactive towns to, for example, the frustration of being stuck in LYLO late game with a player who's made like five posts the entire game and can't make it online, which is primarily why I'm ok with policy lynches but naturally I do prefer voting with more substantial reasons.

@plotstickers
That's all I needed to know, thank you! Based on your relationship status and the information I know I made an assumption about your relationship power but I think I'm wrong, so...?

@Tiki
Any information on Jaiser that you'd be comfortable disclosing now that they've flipped maf? Actually in general I just wanna hear your answers to drandahls questions just ignore me.

@Kiku
THANK U FOR POSTING... THANK U... HELLO BABBY'S FIRST SPEC POST... But yeah I don't have much to say because I don't actually think the stun on you was suspicious and I'm not inclined to vote for you rn.

@Aistaraina

Aistaraina wrote:In terms of the stuns and NKs (the attempt and the actual - rip adawg), I don't really have any further info than what's already been thrown around.  I definitely agree that Lux and Kiyoko are fairly high-priority targets.  It's interesting to see that the attempt on Lux was... Less severe?  Than the attempt on Kiyoko (considering that Lux was stunned and Kiyoko has a NK attempt on her).  I'm also intrigued on the attempts being separated.  I would think mafia would try to take out the high priority vets all at once, leaving us newbies to flounder while they laugh at us :( spacing it out might make it seem less suspicious?

You seem to have made the assumption that Lux is town and her stunner is maf. Am I misunderstanding, or is there a reason why you might think that?

FTR I feel really bad voting for newbies and I don't want to scare you or anything sobs-- but JSYK I do think that jumping to premature conclusions about someone's alignment is very mafia-telling, because only mafia know for sure who's town or scum.

Hope you can get some rest soon! \o/


Putting Aistaraina aside, Vote: AliceofOz who keeps calling people out with (1) wobbly logic and (2) without backing it up with any significant action. It feels like you're pushing suspicions but you're waiting for someone else to cast the first vote for you which imo is mafia behaviour.

I also feel like you backpedal a lot which makes it kind of difficult to form arguments against you tbh - but um... I can understand making a mistake once or twice but when it happens repetitively it does make it sound like you want to distance yourself from the things you just said, which again imo is maf behaviour.

Sorry if this is just regular behaviour for you and completely in character but it's setting off my scum reads so until I get to know all of you better it's the best vote I can think of rn! If you want a full account of my thought process, here -

Spoiler:

I'd be willing to move my vote if I'm offered a better vote candidate \o/

rubs eyes ok i think... I think that's it? pls let's not leave votes to the last minute i'd really like to lynch today sobs

ok i'm now realising lux posted like an entire hour ago and i just took literal years to write the post so now i'm embarrassed IM SORRY IM GOING TO SLEEP

Cure is town, trust me. I feel it in my bones.

Also naut it looks like you forgot me in that list.

n★utilus wrote:

票数 Vote Tally

Sammiya I
Mr. Alice I
AliceofOz I

Kiyoko vs no vote
ezreal vs AliceofOz
Luxaria vs Sammiya
high seraph vs Mr. Alice

((Hi, I am here now. Um I am currently writing a post on the side but I wanted to throw up a vote tally so then I'd have a better idea of what's going on right now l-lol ;_;

Also:

And uhh...nautilus-senpai weren't you kind of pressing hard for that D1 lynch? And now you're sort of on the opposing side. I'm not holding a grudge against you or anything because you voted for me last time. I get that it's D2 now and it's different but...From what I can tell, there aren't any real suspects yet. (I'm hesitant to say Tiki-kun because WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT HE'S MAFIA YET AGAIN? SERIOUSLY?) So unless someone goofs up we'll need to either NL or vote for someone random/with the tiniest bit of suspicion on them. I'm pretty sure that person would be me, and I'm prepared to role claim and such if that happens.

I'm talking about deliberately lynching people who are inactive or acting extremely anti-town, though. Not... people making random votes?

That's... policy lynching (when you vote or target to vote out players that are directly being unhelpful or are inactive because of their inactivity or anti-town unhelpfulness, regardless of whether or not there's actual weight for the lynch). If we had lynched adawg for no reason other than the fact that she was inactive yesterday and wasn't around to make posts, that would be policy lynching. Unless there's a different definition for it.

I don't really see why you're thinking I'm backpedalling on this, because I did vote you for a reason that wasn't inactivity or general unhelpfulness. I would have preferred a D1 lynch and would have encouraged it, but I don't see how that contrasts against my own personal views of policy lynching, really?? (plus all of the votes yesterday were made with reasons that weren't this person is inactive, or... were Mr. Alice's votes) I'd like to think I voted for you for a reason, however weak that might be.))

My reason is lbr just trust me about Cure and T3T rn. Everyone else is fair game.

I can handle the vote tally again but nautilus is doing such a good job... ;v; Gold star for nautilus, to go with her other star. Do you want to keep doing it or do you want me to do it from now on?

I guess I should address these...

ezreal wrote:It feels like you're pushing suspicions but you're waiting for someone else to cast the first vote for you which imo is mafia behaviour.

I guess you're referring to me talking about Kiyoko and then Tiki? I talked about my suspicions on Rasei and I voted for her. I've already explained (like twice?) why I didn't vote for Kiyoko.. Did I 'wait' for someone to cast the first vote D1 or am I missing something here?

ezreal wrote:N0 Rollover
Backpedaling after casting suspicion.

I legitimately didn't realize that a blocked action wouldn't show up in rollover.

ezreal wrote:You mention explicitly that you think the targets are unusual enough that the three stuns might come from town (this is what I believe you mean by "this would be very unbalanced"), but then claim that that's not what you meant when defending yourself. I also don't think you ever clarified why you thought the stun targets were so unusual? Another backpedal.

Not gonna repeat myself. And I did clarify.

ezreal wrote:This in general I found kinda weird but I'm not sure if I was just influenced by nautilus's read of your posts where she thought your first few posts were casting suspicion on Kiyoko (I didn't actually get that vibe from it). What I found more odd is you don't want to vote for her, because... She'll die sooner or later anyway, which doesn't seem like a very town-sided attitude to take? In any case I actually can't tell if this is a backpedal because I'm not sure what the intentions were with the original post.

I think I explained why I didn't vote for her, and if you find that bad reasoning then whatever. I meant that she's a priority target so people will focus more actions on her, thus being the target of more investigations and stuns etc.

ezreal wrote:Rasei
Casting suspicion due to flavour text (which is already a weak argument, but I'll admit I'm biased because I hate arguments formed off flavour text), then explicit acknowledgement that your d1 vote is for show which also reflects an unwillingness to take responsibility for the vote. It kind of reads like "sorry if Rasei gets lynched, I didn't really mean for her to get lynched", which kind of defeats the purpose of voting at all.

Well I was unsure of my vote anyway? Who was 100% sure of their vote D1? Of course I'm not going to commit to a vote I wasn't certain of.

ezreal wrote:

AliceofOz wrote:Also, about Rasei-san the fanfiction writer. I kind of think she's the neutral right now since..like you've all said, the fics don't really affect anything from what we can tell. And..they're just there as a little tidbit every rollover so.... I mean doesn't it look neutral?

And another backpedal...

What? This was after the second fanfiction was out, proving that it was indeed harmless. Since it was harmless and everything was daijobu, I softened on my suspicions on Rasei. Back when it was D1 everyone was going nuts over the fanfiction and thought it was something murderous. How is that a fair accusation? I'm not the only one who now thinks Rasei is town/neutral.

ezreal wrote:Tiki

(I'm hesitant to say Tiki-kun because WHAT ARE THE ODDS THAT HE'S MAFIA YET AGAIN? SERIOUSLY?)

Backpedals again within the same post where you express suspicion?

That was..kind of a joke because he really has been mafia a ridiculous amount of times. You should know that that was not a serious statement. Yes I did not vote for Tiki. I don't have a smart explanation for that I think I just didn't feel like voting.  I was just trying to provide some..spec? Sorry if I'm just not good at this.

Vote : Tiki the Troll

(( Okay, I really want to sink my teeth into Lux's and Ez's posts, as well as Nautilus. Time to properly bust out my English major and do some ~~*Text Analysis*~~ up in this.

okay so we have

Luxaria wrote:
For the record, I am getting pretty strong town vibes from Ezreal, but: why wouldn't mafia do this? In theory, Ezreal, or anyone in Ezreal's shoes, could just post that vote with reasonable logic, then not post again in the thread for 12-16 hours, come back and say "oh wow what did I miss" and swap their vote to a new target without looking suspicious.

I can agree with this logic, but I also think that we're getting into some meta territory that isn't necessarily... productive? I think that Ez has some pretty solid reasoning within the post though, and it doesn't seem like they were acting maliciously in their vote, Plus they posted with a really long thing right afterwards so it doesn't seem like their intention would be to have done that regardless. (also Ez, idk what your pronouns are so let me know if you want me to do anything in particular!)

ummm when it comes to policy lynching I think that all the discussion around it is more or less useless. there are times where it will be necessary because otherwise the game will stall out or the host will have to forcibly remove the inactive players. Plus, in a big game like this there are bound to be some more players that are quieter and either need policy votes to react to or they'lll fly more or less under the radar. Yes, it sucks when they're town but if they're not participating, they're not participating. It's more fun for everyone if people are talking and responding! I'm not for policy bandwagons, because that's an easy way for the mafia to manipulate a kill on a townie but at the very least policy votes are good? idk.

anyway, moving right along.

drandahl wrote:

"Yo, teeks! Bummer what happened to Jaiser-kun. I know you wanted to be like... Super-Pals or something with him, unsurprising considering your mutual ahuman origins, but I wanted to ask you, what did you see in the guy? Did he ever respond to you? Also, I forget, were you approaching Tet-kun, or was he approaching you? Also, remind me again why you turned Kota-chan down?

Also, not inclined to vote for now:
Sammiya, Rasei, Raina, Kiyo, Naut, Tet, High Seraph, Kotakia

I am going to repost this because I think Dhal-san is making some important points that Tiki needs to answer for. Jaiser flipped maf and at no point did either of them confirm their relations. To me, that seems pretty damn suspicious because of the high likelihood of maf-maf relationships in order to exploit relationship abilities. the two of them both not being forthcoming is pinging my radar. Please do elaborate on your relationship with Jaiser, Tiki.

oh also, @blaire, I'm sorry to imply that you'd hurt your own girlfriend, I assumed that perhaps you stunned her with your dazzling wit over any kind of actual harm, hahaha.

In relation to the magic coat speculation-- I'm feeling that it was probably a redirect over a reflection imo. I'm not sure if it would be a maf role ( more likely) or a town role, but I defs don't think its neutral at the least. I don't have much more to say about that unfortunately.

On Adawg's death, which perhaps I should have addressed sooner but whatever. I'm leaning towards the idea that the mafia sleuthed something out about her and decided she was enough of a threat to kill, despite not being especially active in the speculation game. if there are revival roles they may be worth while to be used on her at some point? she could at least tell us something and use her ability if that's the case but a lot of it is question marks right now. I'm still turning the reasoning people have brought up for her death in my mind.

anyway, continuing this trainwreck of a post:

something that I noticed Ez didn't say within their post re: AliceofOz that I noticed was

AliceofOz wrote:And uhh...nautilus-senpai weren't you kind of pressing hard for that D1 lynch? And now you're sort of on the opposing side. I'm not holding a grudge against you or anything because you voted for me last time. It's just..you said that you were against NL-ing D1 because it brings no info on the table and you pressured people to vote. I get that it's D2 now and it's different but...From what I can tell, there aren't any real suspects yet.

I may be protective of my little Nauti-love, but it seems odd to me to sort of pressure her for this. I know Nautilus herself addresses this, but I think it can compound some of the evidence that Ez brings up at least. However, in alice's defense, if I were mafioso I wouldn't try to FOS a strong player like Nautilus unless I had a really concrete reason. perhaps I'm reading too much into it because Nautilus seems chill enough about it but!!! but!!! my love!!!


all these fucking words and I haven't even gotten to Lux directly. I'm sorry I'm apaprently turning into T3t.

okay Lux:

Skipping most of the first half because I either agree/have no strong opinions on that stuff, the relationship bit here is what I'd like to discuss:

of course I know that I am town and at this point I'm pretty certain that Nautilus is too-- in that there is nothing that gives me pause. our relationship is very much built on trust and affection for each other, so I'm erring on the side of 99.9% sure Naut is town-- I agree with your assessment that Cure/Sammiya has the most about it worth noting at this point, if we're ignoring the Tiki/Jaiser situation. I think that they have the highest probability of being maf-maf.

I'm still currently inclined to trust that Cure is town based on Kotakia's vetting, because I'm also pretty sure that Kotakia is town through my own intuition and such, so I'm currently of the thought that Cure and Sammiya could be Town-Maf as a pairing.

Plus I think the point that we'd also be testing Rasei through what we learn about Sammiya is brilliant.

So, I guess in summary, I think Ez's reasoning is interesting, and the post that AliceofOz made addressing it didn't really convince me otherwise, but I think in terms of economical lynches, Sammiya will provide us with more information about the people involved with her.

Vote: Sammiya

That being said, my current suspicion list past that are as follows:

AliceofOz, Tiki the Troll, Rasei (ish), Rodea (distantly), Mr. Alice (something is still making me hmm and haw but I can;t place it yet)

I'd like to hear from Tiki and Rodea specifically in the next little while, but I think this post is long enough that I should just post it.

Kiyoko wrote:HOLD ON. I HAVE AN IMPORTANT QUESTION FOR DEO.

deo wrote:Like, I used an action on eleni last night and it got bounced back to me which.... ended up doing absolutely nothing lol

...........could you say this was a "y i visitan" moment?

lmFAO YEAH I GUESS in a weird roundabout sort of way

if i was watcher again oml the irony would be too much for me

((Give me a sec to reread these posts, but I wanted to make one super fast point:

if there are revival roles they may be worth while to be used on her at some point? she could at least tell us something and use her ability if that's the case but a lot of it is question marks right now. I'm still turning the reasoning people have brought up for her death in my mind.

This isn't directed at Ninfia specifically, but as a whole I would really advise against knee-jerk revivals. While there may be a case for her having a hidden PR that may have made her the target of the kill after an investigation, this is all really preliminary information and isn't confirmed.

In addition revival roles tend to be made weaker in some way (only a certain # of revivals, player loses use of whatever ability they had and becomes vanilla) so it's really a case for conserving shots for players who need them like a detective or doctor. I'm not saying adawg isn't deserving of revival over other future players that die, but definitely not this early when we basically don't know anything about her role other than "mmmaybe powerful?"

I'm mostly saying this because I remember pressing my face against the screen as host watching the town copy the vigilante over the detective that was just about to die, so, uh.))

I chose to partner up with Cure because she said that she needed a partner to actually be able to use her abilities, and the only ability I have via notes is the ability to talk to Rasei through it. I am not currently going to disclose my own role power, however, unless extremely pressed to do so.

At the moment, I'm more inclined to think Rasei is one neutral and that T3T is the other one.

I'm giving Cure the benefit of the doubt of being town, partially from my own gut feelings.

I do think it's possible that Tiki is mafia, though, in regards to how the entire relationship with Jaiser seemed to have happeneed.

So Vote: Tiki for now.

T3T is not our neutral, I'm positive of it.