Cardcaptor Sakura Mafia thread 2 [Day six]

sighs

:(

vote: dylan

Hey, Angel.

ヾangel★★★★★彡◦°˚☆ wrote:i... really hope i'm not continuing my streak of unlucky spec but i'm still inclined to believe gerry :|a idk, i can kind of understand his thinking, and his reaction seems genuine to me?

i'm reminded of raie's chants of DYLAN AND BLAIRE and... i'm not sure if i completely agree with her, but i do think it's between dylan, blaire, and vowels????

Raie's chants of DYLAN AND BLAIRE were last-minute in the phase, and were mainly because we weren't immediately responsive to claim our cards. I didn't immediately claim because I thought we were between phase end and rollover. I claimed as soon as I realized my mistake, and then the following rollover corroborated my claim. Raie was dead though (again) at that point, and so she really can't comment on any of this.

I'm a little concerned that we're focusing so much on Gerry right now. I'm okay if we wind up lynching in that direction given the ratio right now, and given we still have town control, but honestly I think it's most likely the NK was blocked last night.

I'm going to put my vote: Vowels back.

Regardless of what you think about Gerry, his existence corroborates Aeiou's claim. I think we can assume mafia didn't investigate Gerry and learn his role, since Lucas was their role cop and died after only investigating Plot (so he claimed, anyway; even if this was a lie, though, the odds that they investigated Gerry is very very small considering the number of players in the game. It's possible, but not terribly likely, that the mafia had a JoAT with a shot of role cop and investigated Gerry, but if we assume that didn't happen...

Aeiou could be mafia with Gerry. Thus Aeiou would obviously know Gerry's role and be able to report on an obscured action. I don't consider this likely because with Gerry claiming a passive role, there isn't much reason to

Both Aeiou and Gerry could be town, and Aeiou is telling the truth about the obscured action. For this to be the case, Gerry's ability must have shown up in the list either in response to Aeiou's action or someone else's investigation, and I don't know if passive roles would show up in the list at all?

Or Aeiou is town and Gerry is mafia. Gerry could be lying about not having an active power, or could have sent in the NK the night that Aeiou received the "obscured result", or MAYBE his passive ability triggered because Aeiou was "investigating" everybody in the game.

In any case, I don't think it's likely that Aeiou is mafia and Gerry is not, and regardless of which way Aeiou flips we won't really have any more information on Gerry. So, after much consideration, I'm going to throw my weight behind a Gerry lynch. vote: Mr. Gerbear

Quick comments:

I thank you for doing your best to answer, Gerry. I do appreciate it a lot, though I am keeping my vote on you for now.

Even with the answers and clarifications you've provided, I'm still having a lot of trouble reconciling the previous points against your role and the timing of various statements. The one thing that caused me to "hmm" was Rasei's mention of your role abilities being blocked by her action on you as recently as last night phase. That said, Mitsu's comments re: certain abilities being inherently tied to the player, not the role, are good ones, and so I am willing to believe if you have obfuscation it's not something that can be turned off, whereas something like a revenge kill or bulletproof--another form of a passive--can be negated.

The other reason is... Given the setup of the thread, I am over 90% certain that one of Aeiou or Gerry has to be mafia. We're at 2:8. Worst-case scenario, you're a ML. It happens. We're in a position where we can afford it, and then given you being a ML, we lynch Aeiou next. This might be less obvious if your alignment is truly hidden upon death, as you suggest, so we might not immediately know. That said, if we were to lynch Aeiou first and she flips town or mafia, what this means for you is more complicated than the other way around. Basically, if we lynch you, we most probably learn Aeiou's alignment. If we lynch Aeiou, you're still a question mark given how everything has gone down.

In other words, see: what Five and Mitsu have said.

If your role is completely as you say, and it's shown you're town, then I feel very sorry for you because that's the worst town role I have ever seen in any game, and there's truly not much you can do about it. I feel it is most likely your role is a mafia role and Aeiou picked up on it the other day, and I can't see that working any other way.

Why does nobody believe me when I say you'll get much more information out of an Aeiou lynch. You're not gonna get anything out of my death, which will be obscured in likely the same way investigations on me were. What kind of information is that?

I'm gonna revote Vote: Aeiou because I've slept on everything that happened yesterday and it's only in town's benefit for me to actually vote. Sigh.

vote: gerry

although if his card doesnt flip alignment, and then maybe if it obscures ratio then that will make things complicated. I'm having house flashbacks

I don't want to be the house :(

★ The drandahl vs Aeiou Aeiou Mr Gerbear
★ The Mr Gerbear vs Aeiou Aeiou
★ The ezzelin vs Aeiou
★ The Rasei vs No Vote
★ The nautilus vs Mr Gerbear
★ The Luxaria vs Mr Gerbear
★ The Katagi vs Mr Gerbear
★ The Mr Alice vs Mr Gerbear
★ The angelstar vs drandahl Aeiou
★ The Five vs Mr Gerbear
★ The Aeiou vs Mr Gerbear

★ Mr Gerbear Vll
★ Aeiou lll

Doing this at the request of the host.

drandahl wrote:Hey, Angel.

ヾangel★★★★★彡◦°˚☆ wrote:i... really hope i'm not continuing my streak of unlucky spec but i'm still inclined to believe gerry :|a idk, i can kind of understand his thinking, and his reaction seems genuine to me?

i'm reminded of raie's chants of DYLAN AND BLAIRE and... i'm not sure if i completely agree with her, but i do think it's between dylan, blaire, and vowels????

Raie's chants of DYLAN AND BLAIRE were last-minute in the phase, and were mainly because we weren't immediately responsive to claim our cards. I didn't immediately claim because I thought we were between phase end and rollover. I claimed as soon as I realized my mistake, and then the following rollover corroborated my claim. Raie was dead though (again) at that point, and so she really can't comment on any of this.

yeah i know, but if you look back before raie had those chants, you three were already at the top of my suspect list, so it's not just raie's chants that make me suspicious of you.

i.... also really don't see how we'll get information about aeiou based on gerry's death, if what he says is true. i honestly feel like it makes more sense to lynch vowels...... :|

not that this will make much of a difference but oh well unvote; vote: vowels

@ angel

Reasoning is as such:

1. If we lynch Aeiou, regardless of Aeiou's flip, Gerry's alignment could go either way, especially after his claims and statements in thread, the timing of them, and the inconsistency in some areas.

2. If we lynch Gerry and he flips town or something that suggests town, Aeiou is most likely mafia.

3. If we lynch Gerry and he flips mafia or something that suggests mafia, Aeiou is most likely town.

These are my opinions, though, but several others view the situation the same way. Couple this with the fact that Gerry's role reads as a textbook mafia role, and makes no sense as a town role, then he is most likely mafia.

If you find this assessment wrong, that's fine. Just explaining why we view Gerry's lynch as holding more information, coupled with the incredibly scummy nature of his role. Numerous points against his role are not answered easily without resorting to, "Well maybe he's just a pure anti-town role". Which also feels weird if we consider how many seemingly anti-town related roles we were supposed to start the game with (if we believe Five and She-ra, for instance). Three anti-town roles, that we know of, just feels like we're pushing reasonable balance when none of the other town roles really indicate overwhelming power. So, take it as you will.*

Re: Vote

The tally is interesting to me because most of the people voting for Aeiou are ones I've been unsure about, sans Mr. Alice. Mr. Alice voting Gerry is intriguing to me for that reason, too. Hmm.

Either way, we'll see come rollover.

* Edit:

To re-iterate on the anti-town nature, quoting myself:

Spoiler:

The way he describes his role as working would not trigger when Aeiou performs her action because, logically, he's not actually acting. Further, his role only comes into effect when a role or alignment cop check him, or angel's role, for that matter. In the case of role detection, why is the entirety of the role effectively "This role is obscured"? That feels so redundant because it doesn't actually do anything. Meaning the only way it'd help town is if mafia checked him with their single investigation, and it's still just... nonsensical.

Meanwhile, his role just vexes the other investigations of town--one of which he has no action for and should not show up under, and the other of which are trying to figure out more about his alignment or card. So in this case, he's claiming he's literally an anti-town role whose sole purpose is to dilute the power of alignment cops and similar investigations (like angel). I do not believe Ninfia would make something like this. Further, whatever Gerry says about not claiming, I do not believe he would go the entire game making the statements and claims in the exact order and timing he did if he were actually town with this role.

hmmm, i can kind of understand i guess. for me, it's just that i feel like regardless of what his true alignment is, it'll be obscured, so scenarios 2 & 3 would be combined, and we still wouldn't be able to figure anything out about aeiou.

admittedly, i didn't really think too deeply into how gerry's claimed role plays into the bigger picture and if it makes sense as a town role. i'm more unsure about his alignment now - but again, i don't think we'd know for sure until the game ends, since i believe his claim about his flip being obscured.

it probably won't change anything but i apologize for the histrionics last night. i was legit not feeling emotionally well (as usual...) and doing things wrong while playing this game was just like. exacerbating all the wrong things in my head. :c

Read up a bit. I've decided I'll back the general reasoning behind a Gerbear vote. vote: Gearbear