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TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!]

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61 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:45 am

*sees Luxaria getting a vote*

W-what reason did you have for this vote? Because so far no one else has voted and she's going to get lynched by default.

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62 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:49 am

Hmm, well here, how about this:

Vote: AliceofOz

So now there's a 50/50 chance! Better? :D

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63 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:52 am

What.

That's not fair! Now my life's on the line!

You know what fine.

Fine.

Whatever!

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64 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:53 am

As for the whole Kiyo/Mr Alice thing... Im probably not going to vote any of them today, but lets not forget that Kiyo being able to confirm Mr Alice's townness doesn't necessarily lead to Kiyo being town herself. Also, Mr Alices rant post?? Something about being the mayor? I wonder if there is any relevance in that.

True. Since this game is closed roles, it's easily possible that Kiyoko might be feigning her role and arbitrarily saying "Mr. Alice is town, yo" or both Mr. Alice and Kiyoko are mafia and Kiyoko is simply lying about her role outright.

We have a bunch of possible situations:

  1. Mr. Alice is town, Kiyoko is mafia, and Kiyoko has an ability associated with learning tropes
  2. Mr. Alice is town, Kiyoko is town, Kiyoko found out Mr. Alice's trope and has Role Related Reasons to believe they are town
  3. Both Kiyoko and Mr. Alice are mafia and lied about everything
  4. Mr. Alice is mafia and Kiyoko is town, and the information she received that made her deduce Mr. Alice was likely town was distorted or falsified


It's not like Kiyoko also didn't feign investigation in the Red Riding Hood game, when she ate the real detective. Gosh that sounds weird.

However, I don't think that we should disregard her comments about Mr. Alice for now because the ratio is at 5:3 at the moment, and it's the only evidence that appears to have been gathered outside of speculation and rollover. Certainly they warrant more observation later, but like I said, I'd rather not scuttle our only source of potential information at the moment.

That being said, I'd rather not touch Kiyoko or Mr. Alice for the lynch today. Pan hasn't posted since game start and his post in Roleplay Mafia suggests that something is up, so I would rather not vote him for now. This leaves:

The Suspect List (nautilus edition)
Luxaria
Rasei
AliceofOz
high seraph

Of this list, I don't want to vote AliceofOz just yet given her claim of an anomalous active role that doesn't appear in rollover. This could be a lie on her part because unless we have a tracker, we can't objectively verify her statement, but like Kiyoko and Mr. Alice, I would rather err on the side of caution for now. I feel like all this erring on the side of caution for now might blow up in my face later in the game, sob.

This leaves Rasei, high seraph, and Luxaria. I don't really have any strong opinion on which of the three to vote, though I will admit I've been side-eying Luxaria a little simply because of her comments re: alcasync.

I guess I can try to rationalize it a bit because judging from previous games I've played from her, she tends to go into overdrive with "what if" strategy and this might be a case of her WIFOMing out into space, but something unsettles me about her attempting to float the possibility of alcasync being mafia a little, even if alcasync being mafia is incredibly unlikely. She focuses on it quite a bit in her first post and it reads like she's trying to seed the idea into the town, but this might be my intuition speaking. My superultragreatdeliciouswonderful bad intuition speaking. I would like to see her response to Kiyoko's vote, though, before I do anything.

I suppose we could also no lynch and bank on alcasync's unwanted revival occurring in the next few phases + more information being dug up later on, but that can trap us in a LYLO situation by D2 if things don't pan out well.

Also where is everyone

EDIT: There's everyone else



Last edited by nautilus on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:58 am; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : Clarity)

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65 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 11:58 am

AliceofOz wrote:What.

That's not fair! Now my life's on the line!

You know what fine.

Fine.

Whatever!

i'M SORRY DID I MAKE IT WORSE

I just thought it would be sweet if you two could be together like that. ; A ; coughsshipperondeck?coughs

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66 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:00 pm

Kiyoko

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Kotakia wrote:Dr. Senpai.

This translates to "senpai-sensei."

@Alice: Because voting is part of the game and someone has to be first vote. Would you rather we all sit there until rollover with nobody voting, and then mafia slips in a vote last minute?

@nautilus: I considered NLing but I knew that if I placed the first NL, everyone would just bandwagon onto it and we wouldn't get much discussion onto it. I'd rather vote now and maybe change our votes to NL if we have to.

Edit: Hey isn't rollover in like... an hour?

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67 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:05 pm

I thought rollover was at 3pm.

((Also after this game someone should totally go through it and list all the tropes they see. Might be a bit of a challenge tho haha.))


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68 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:07 pm

If a mafia can slip in a vote last minute, wouldn't they just need to vote for either me or Luxaria now that we're 50/50?

Nevermind I think I get it.

@ Mr. Alice

Well. I mean, I guess I can keep her company if she wants to..



Last edited by AliceofOz on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:14 pm; edited 1 time in total

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69 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:11 pm

The whole swarm voting thing is less likely to happen in this game, I think, because of the vote locking, but where is everyone. Seriously.

@nautilus: I considered NLing but I knew that if I placed the first NL, everyone would just bandwagon onto it and we wouldn't get much discussion onto it. I'd rather vote now and maybe change our votes to NL if we have to.

Yeah, I get you. I guess my own issue with NL is it banks on us hopefully getting information later on instead of generating discussion in the phase itself, and if we no lynch and mafia's night kill connects, then the ratio becomes 4:3. And then it's basically lynch or lose.

Also: My name is nautilus (not really, but). I'm a tiebreaker. And this is based off my little comment earlier and because I would rather not vote AliceofOz right now.

vote: Luxaria

I'd like to see Luxaria's response to Kiyoko's vote still, though.

Also rollover is in 50 minutes.

EDIT: @Kotakia - Is there a voting activity requirement?

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70 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:15 pm

I would like to hear your reasons behind this vote. You pointed out that if we're at 5:3 then we run the risk of being in a MYLO scenario, but you're claiming a 50% chance of voting mafia in your speculation. I cannot tell if the vote is just a vote for information (which might be risky with only one vote change per phase), if I'm just the best candidate of that list of five, or if you have some other thoughts that you are not sharing. Right now, I see the vote on me and the only thing that stands out as a likely reason behind it would be my analysis of N0's actions.

For the record, I am not suggesting your list is unreasonable. Both you and Mr. Alice seem to be... sort of vouching for each other in some capacity, but it's too early in the game for me to really begin to parse that connection or what it means. Panpanpandy has yet to post, so I cannot get a read on him, and then from there we get the remaining five. AliceofOz, Nautilus, and High Seraph have all contributed at least a statement, whereas Rasei has posed a question. AliceofOz seems to have run into a misunderstanding, Nautilus has agreed with and contributed to the discussion on Alcasync and Sammiya, and High Seraph rehashed our information.

I'm leaning towards no vote (can we do this? I need to check) or no lynch because I do not see enough information to feel comfortable risking the MYLO situation. I feel like Kiyoko and Mr. Alice cannot both be mafia, so I think at least one of you is town. I do not feel comfortable voting for Rasei without input from her, which leaves AliceofOz, Nautilus, and High Seraph, and so far only AliceofOz has said anything that feels a little scummy, but it could just be confusion.

I'll keep an eye on the proceedings between now and rollover.

(Edit: I appear to have been ninja'd a few times while writing this. orz I'll try replying and seeing how I feel about the votes in a moment.)

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71 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:19 pm

....oh that's 3pm CST....oh.....o h . ..... oops .... ..


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72 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:43 pm

Kiyoko

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My reasoning for voting is presumably the same as nautilus's. Something you said in your long speculation post rubbed me the wrong way, in that it felt like an attempt to seed doubt. Additionally, the whole diving straight into a long spec post thing seemed a little different from how you've played other games, though admittedly there isn't a large pool to reference. Maybe I'm misreading the situation entirely, but then we don't really have much to go off of anyway.

Other people can disagree with me but I don't see any point in stalling a MYLO into a LYLO, especially when we don't know what night actions anyone has (meaning there's no guarantee that we'd even get more info during the night).

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73 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:47 pm

no voting activity requirement but only one vote change

also rollover is in 15 minutes.



Vote tally:

Luxaria - II
AliceofOz - I
No Lynch - I


Kiyoko vs Luxaria
nautilus vs Luxaria
Mr. Alice vs AliceofOz
Luxaria vs no lynch



Last edited by Kotakia on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:56 pm; edited 1 time in total


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74 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:53 pm

Addressing the ninja posts:

With regards to the Mr. Alice/Kiyoko connection, I'm still thinking at least one is town, but Nautilus has presented the four possible scenarios that have been running through my head. Mr. Alice seems to be a little suspicious of Kiyoko possibly latching onto them, and Kiyoko is only guessing Mr. Alice is town. Even with the vote on me, I do not feel comfortable voting for Kiyoko just yet.

Mr. Alice voted for AliceofOz (Alice highlander situation going on?), which is a target I'm considering voting for. This is, obviously, largely in the interests of self-preservation, since right now it's Luxaria:2 and AliceofOz:1, and if I vote AliceofOz I at least have a chance of maybe surviving. But, realistically, AliceofOz would vote me and then I get lynched.

For non self-preservation reasons, the only information I have on AliceofOz is that she exhibited some minor confusion earlier in the game and questioned Kiyoko's vote on myself. Kiyoko explained this reasoning (which sort of answers my questions to her, if only in the nature of pushing discussion, which I suspected). Mr. Alice voted for AliceofOz. I cannot be certain if this was a random vote (which seems a little reckless with limited vote changes; Kiyoko did something similar in voting without specific clause, but she explained the hesitance to vote NL, but not why she selected me). I could in theory vote for Mr. Alice to protect myself and hope AliceofOz follows, but that seems risky when there's potential evidence pointing to at least one of Mr. Alice and Kiyoko being town, and it could be a MYLO.

Nautilus has voted for me, despite earlier stating she wanted to wait on my response before doing so. This seems a bit suspicious to me, but I suppose she might have wanted to push votes before it got too close to rollover. She cites my analysis of N0 actions as being suspect, which is what I think also caused Kiyoko to vote for me.

Actually, Kiyo posted while I was writing this.

@ Kiyo: Fair enough, I understand your reasoning, since that's the only thing I could see as being the likely culprit behind the vote.

I'm running out of time, so I'm leaning towards either voting for an Alice or no lynch. I think my best chance of survival is voting no lynch, and I'm not confident on any suspicions for Mr. Alice and AliceofOz.

Vote: No Lynch

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75 Re: TV Tropes UPick [TOWN WIN!] on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:57 pm

I jumped in with a vote, because... there was two votes and I really wanted to get this game moving a little. I also wanted to break any eventual ties that started to form because I didn't want a bunch of last minute votes flying in. The nautilus waits for no one and it was an hour to rollover and I figured voting was better than waiting (plus: vote change still intact).

That being said, @Luxaria: I noticed that your post involves a lot of hesitation regarding the MYLO situation and Kiyoko putting forth a lynch. I guess my issue with that is that it's almost... overly hopeful that things will work out/pushing things for later? I mentioned in my original post about stalling for alcasync's potential revival or for further information, but when I said "if things don't pan out"...

Assume we no lynch (even though it's really late for no lynches at the moment), ratio is 5:3 into the night. Night kill connects. Ratio during the day phase is 4:3.

Now think about it: what if the night kill connected onto a player who has the capacity to discover new information regarding the town? What if alcasync doesn't revive and stays dead? Then we're at D2 with this awkward deadlock that's currently happening now, with no new information and very little discussion.

Kiyoko has said most of my thoughts, I think, with respect to why you feel so weird. You repeatedly cycled back in your post to the idea that alcasync might be mafia, even though you mentioned that you concluded at the end of your post that you were certain she was town. That feels weird to me, and while you addressed part of the suspicion here:

To answer your questions, I'm more just trying to analyze the pieces of information we have from every angle so I can place it into my logs and speculation. So far while playing, I haven't seen a role like what Alca appears to have, so naturally I wanted to parse and analyze it for myself and see where it led. In the end, I commented that I saw nothing in her apparent self-initiated death to be beneficial to a mafia role and that I read it as her being town.

If you finally thought she was town in the end, I feel like that could have been discussed in a more succinct fashion rather than constantly going back to "but what if alcasync was mafia... then..."

Finally: @Mr. Alice: any reason why you voted AliceofOz, or was it just a gut feeling sort of deal?



Last edited by nautilus on Wed Jun 24, 2015 12:58 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : clarity. seriously why do i play mafia i type so messily)

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