Arbitrary Minimafia [MAFIA WIN]

████████████████ DAY ONE

RASEI was killed. She was a VIRGIN.

████████████████ VIRGIN

If you are ever lynched, mafia will not be able to send a NK the next night.

The ratio is 1:3.

Day One will end on Sunday, June 21, at 9:00pm PST.

Clarification, does this mean there will be no NK on N1 or does it only work if Rasei is lynched? ;v;

Only when lynched.

I got so excited for a moment thinking that was the best possible result we could hope for if a town had to die N0. Aw, oh well. Very cool role either way. Rasei is pure.

Rasei, you will be avenged. ;_;

Hmm... okay...

I suppose we're already at MYLO (I think?)

If we lynch the wrong person then we're at 1:2, and then if the target isn't protected or bulletproof then mafia wins. Since there was no stun or jail last night, we might not have a stunner or jailer in this game, so we can't count on that.

That said, I'm never a fan of no lynching unless I have to.

Umm, do we have unlimited vote changes, Kiyoko? ;v;

Unlimited vote changes. Vote all you'd like. Vote for the unfortunate sacrifice to be devoured by the rectangle.

*Does the illusion of democracy truly matter, in the end? We are but quivering meat before the rectangle.*

This is very dangerous, as Alcasync points out. We have this day and maybe the next, if we're lucky (or don't lynch). We have no idea what other roles are in play, especially if they're as uniquely varied as Kiyoko has more-or-less suggested. We also don't have the opportunity to compare reactions and alliances since there's only one mafia; they won't have to worry about trying to protect someone else.

After last game, I'm still unsure of my feelings on a D1 lynch, but that's complicated even more by the fact that this is very much a race against time. We need all of the information we can get.

I asked Kiyoko and she said we can claim roles (though I've asked her to confirm it in thread too ;v; )

I know that mafia can easily lie about what role they are since this is a closed-role game, but would it help if we claimed? I agree with Luxaria that there's only so much information we can get out of a lynch considering we might only have one lynch in the whole game.

To be clear, I'm not suggesting we all claim, I'm wondering if you guys would think it would help?

alcasync wrote:I asked Kiyoko and she said we can claim roles (though I've asked her to confirm it in thread too ;v; )

Claim anything. Claim everything. It will not matter in the end. The rectangle will take it all away.

By that I mean yeah go ahead, claiming is A-OK.

I'm now wishing I spent more time actually writing rules in the OP instead of saying "You guys know the rules."

My very first thought was that if all three town are 100% honest and claim their role, then it may be our best chance of winning. But there's some problems with this.

1. We do not know what the distribution of roles are. It's a lot easier to fit everything into a chart and try to pin someone for lying if we know there's definitely X, Y, and possibly Z roles. For this, we have absolutely no clue what the spread of roles are. As a result, a mafia could just claim one of many different roles, and we can't begin to guarantee that they'd contradict or double-up with a town player.

2. We may not even have a power role that can let us counteract mafia. I would think that Kiyoko at least gave town some defense to work with against mafia, but this is, at its heart, a minigame. Kiyoko is the type to try to make things fair, but minigames are structured in that they are not necessarily required to be balanced. For our case, that might just be the distribution of players in that we started with a single mafia and four town. I suppose one proponent of the theory of a mild sort of balance is that Rasei's role would've played in well for buying time in the case of a mislynch, which is a very real threat for us right now.

3. If we do have a potent protective role, it essentially tells mafia which target to take out to guarantee a swift victory. But maybe analyze this.

Let's go with an easy example of doctor for Alcasync. This means we would be less likely to lynch you. Let's say you're even being honest and that's truly your role. This brings it down to 3 players. From the perspective of the two town, they both know that they are town plus you, which then means there's a 50% chance to get the mafia on a lynch. If we fail, in an ideal world you could protect yourself and we could piece together the last mafia from there. But in all probability, you would have used the protect on yourself N0 to guarantee we'd have a defensive role moving into the next stages of the game. Regardless, that's still a 50% chance to get a mafia, versus the current, what, 33% chance for any of us town to individually identify a mafia target.

4. However, if we follow the above logic... what prevents a mafia player from calling such a potent role and invoking its protection? In this regard, should we be more suspicious of anyone that calls a protective role? That's a funny thought right there.

However, when all is said and done, claiming does present an avenue through which we can obtain information, which we're sorely lacking. I'm mainly just worried as to whether or not we can feasibly use it very effectively.

Also, do we know if Kiyoko gave mafia a unique power? I feel like she wouldn't in this small of a game, but I do not know for sure.

Mafia has a special ability, too. For clarification, I didn't really put too much effort into balancing the game, but I did make sure it wasn't explicitly un-balanced.

I figured with this few players it'd end in like 2-4 phases anyway.

Rasei's role was so pure. Rest in peace. ;o;

So basically it would be safer if we all just remained silent about our roles, even though it'd benefit the group if we all did (more theories, more reasons to lynch/kill if you're vigilante)? Not sure if I'm willing to risk my life just yet, so I'll refrain from saying anything about my role.

If you guys insist on knowing my role though, I'll answer honestly.

Usually I random-vote as a reaction vote but I don't know if that will work here since there's only one mafia and it's game over if we mess up.

But no lynching only helps if we have a detective role who can investigate at night. Otherwise someone will die, the ratio will be 1:2, and we will be back at square one.

Umm, nautilus hasn't posted yet. Nautilus, do you have any ideas on what we should do this phase? ;v;

I really hope we can hear from Nautilus soon, too! This game feels pretty bizarre. I'm still trying to think of ways to get information, but even random voting seems problematic. I previously pointed out that we can't really catch a mafia in a lie since they aren't trying to conceal an alliance, so there's nothing they can really do. But without random voting... and without knowing if we have any detective roles... Well, our options boil down to:

1. No Lynch. This puts us at 1M:2T D2, assuming roles don't skew it one way or the other? This gives us at least a 50% chance to individually select the mafia.

2. Lynch. This puts us at 1M:2T N1. Which means that unless we have something that can work in our favor tonight, we lose outright. Also gives us 33% chance to individually select the mafia.

The first scenario arguably gives us more time to work with. The second scenario gives us information much sooner, with the added benefit that the information we receive comes during a time when, as far as I know about the game, we'd be able to actually use our roles. Not lynching means if we use our roles on N1, we'd be doing so blind, which means in some cases it might be disadvantageous, or even abruptly cause us to lose the game.

The first scenario is based more off of our ability to work together as a town team to prove ourselves and ferret out the mafia. It gives us a lot more time to discuss, debate, poke holes in logic, and try to establish which player seems scummy of the remaining two (from the perspective of the two town). However, there's also the fact that we won't have the same set of information a game usually has. We won't be able to draw lines from the death of a second mafia, and we won't have pushed for a lynch, and as a result we won't be able to get reads on people as well as we might in a standard game. D2 voting might basically put us back to where we are today, with the change of upping our percentage to guess by 50%. I should not that's on an individual basis; in a 2-to-1 vote, Mafia wins two of the three outcomes, because both players have their 50% chance to guess.

I'm kind of speculating to the point of confusion and obscurity. I guess the real takeaway is that we either lynch and then hope our roles are good enough tonight to do anything, or don't lynch (maybe our roles will help?) and then place everything on a lynch tomorrow. In other words, I suppose it comes back to what we were first discussing: The power of our roles and if we should give claiming a try.

(punches the giant rectangle in the face)

Anyways, I'm here now. I'm under the inclination that everyone in this thread is in a different timezone than I am, which makes me a little sad.  But anyways:

I have no real opinion one way or the other in terms of mass-claiming,  though the really huge caveats that I can see are:

1. If we clinically role-claim, there's a huge chance that the mafia may blatantly just lie about their role, and if we have no investigative roles we can't exactly check the veracity of the claim if it's something passive (that is, there is no action associated with it, like a bomb or something).
   
2. Someone could claim a power-role (whether it be mafia or town) and it becomes a huge game of WIFOM about the veracity of the claim; we'd be stuck in a limbo about whether or not someone is lying or whether or not they're telling the truth. See points 3/4 on Luxaria's list.
   

So this post isn't entirely useless, I did ask Kiyoko a few questions and got a reply, so here we go:

1. Giant rectangle says that the roles are not largely unchanged from their EpicMafia counterparts, and changes are mostly due to adaptations from EM's system to a forum system (e.g. whispers -> PMs).
   
2. Giant rectangle says that no two people can have the same role.
   
3. Giant rectangle says that only roles listed under mafia on EM are possibilities for the mafia role in this game (and vice versa for town).
   

Using this, I made a list of plausible ideas for the mafia's role:

Spoiler:

EDIT: I apparently deleted the portion of my post where I discuss lynching possibilities:

I'm actually on the fence (and have really no opinion) on whether or not we lynch or no lynch; don't misconstrue this as me being apathetic as to the game outcome, but I feel like either option would have a near equivalent outcome. Lynching today would give us a smaller chance of finding mafia, but it gives up ammunition to use for the following day phase assuming town survives, whereas no lynching buys time for investigative roles to investigate but in exchange we have nothing really to go on for the lynch the following day. Both are reliant on certain roles being present in the town (lynching relies on protective roles, no lynching relies on investigative roles). Therefore, this is how I feel:

- If we want to buy time, we should no lynch and then wait for the following day.
- If we want to try our hand and vote ASAP, we should lynch today.

I wish I had more for the town, but I don't really have much of anything good at the moment to say. :(