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New Beginnings [TOWN WIN]

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136 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:41 pm

I...

I was so afraid of looking at rollover and at the thread because I was incredibly convinced that this would end up as a bad ending, but I'm so glad at this ending ghghrh

I also hope this clears up any lingering doubts about my alignment, because I basically attempted to lynch Sammiya twice in this game. I'll make a post later, but I feel like my awesome mafia hunting luck has run out this game because I am somewhat unsure of who the second mafia player is.

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137 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Wed Jun 10, 2015 10:52 pm

Actually, I'll make it now.

I don't think it's alca; alca was suspicious of Sammiya and nearly got her lynched on d1 (and I feel like mafia wouldn't attempt to attack each other so early on, especially in a game where they have nothing but their NKs and numbers to gain traction). If it is, I will still cry due to betrayalpaca. It also makes me a bit confused because Sammiya was trying to discourage me from following alca earlier (making comments about how I was bound to follow alcasync's vote, and that alcasync might not be exactly town), and if alca is mafia and trying to lynch Megrid, who is town, then it makes no sense for Sammiya not to encourage me to follow alcasync and vote Megrid (it's a weird comment). It's possible if she thought her lynch was for certain not to fight against it, but given how narrow the votes are I'm not exactly sure. It also makes me wonder why Sammiya chose to vote for Rasei, and not Megrid, to save herself (since at the time of my post it was a tie), though that may have been because the bandwagon was already forming.

Like what I said earlier in my explanation post:
- Lynching Sammiya would shed a bit of light on Rasei's alignment, as Rasei has been mentioned by Sammiya as an objection of suspicion; if Rasei is mafia and Sammiya is mafia, then I feel like Sammiya would not suspect her co-mafia member (since there's only two, there's less expendable... members, so to say). This is weaker than the above because Sammiya never explicitly voted for Rasei, so it's harder to tie her to Rasei "officially" because she never voted for her, so to speak.

Other than my pronoun mistake here (please correct me if I use wrong pronouns, by the way!) I still think this is valid, though alcasync's comment about it being MYLO when these votes were made make it even more interesting. I guess what bothers me is that the other mafia member never made a visible attempt to defend Sammiya during the final hours of the phase as votes trickled in - Megrid wasn't around and Mr. Alice/Rasei bandwagoned on my vote. Because of the Rasei connection here I don't believe Rasei is likely to be the other mafia member, which leaves Mr. Alice and Megrid.

Regardless, with the doctor still alive, the ratio being 4:1, and only one mafia remaining we probably have a decent chance at finding the final mafia member before we get into trouble.

Finally: the cat is out of the bag, but I asked everyone why they thought drandahl died because the mafia would know the true reason for drandahl's death, and I was looking to see whether or not there was any curious bunching of theories in the thread - for example, two people pushing a theory that seemed illogical together.

EDIT: For all players who are still alive (Megrid, alcasync, Rasei, Mr. Alice) - who do you think is the most likely to be mafia, and why?

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138 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Thu Jun 11, 2015 6:36 pm

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orz *sneaks in* Still trying to catch up (just got some stuff taken care of but not all), but to answer the more immediate question I see:

I really don't know what to say. Actually, I think the better thing to say is I'm split. You and Alcasync struck me as being the most town, and I'm inclined to agree. It might be repeating what's (probably) already been said as far as the reasons why, but you both gave a lot of input and analysis, moreso than I'd expect from a mafia member (but then again as I said before I came from a background where everyone in the game barely says much other than curses and I haz a dumb on being observant. :| ). I guess, by virtue, without suspicion on either of you two (unless one of you are really mafia in which case holy frig), that leaves Rasei and Mr. Alice and that's where I'm split on.

I can't really comment on if there's any theory that seemed to clash together since it might've flown right over my head if it did, but excluding the "I don't suspect these two, so it must be one of those two" reasons, my suspicions are such:

I see a lot of input from them (...Input I'm somewhat caught up on), but... I dunno, I'm not sure how to put into words the different impressions I feel between the points Mr. Alice and Rasei would bring up versus the points Alcasync and Nautlius would bring up. Hrn...

Looking back besides noticing that I don't think my vote would really change much even if I did remember to make it on time *headdesks*, I agree on Nautlius's point about the connection between Sammiya and Rasei. What stuck out to me in particular was this "objection of suspicion". I see your point too, Alca, on the thought that the two faced off against each other and how that may not make sense as a strategy, but what if that was the plan? I guess I'm not up to date on mafia strategies, but what better way to shake off suspicions of affiliations than to act like there was none in the first place? To do the unpredictable?

Then again, perhaps I've been reading into that a bit too much. That does make me wonder more about Rasei, saying this, though both Rasei and Mr. Alice struck me as the ones being the most under-the-radar of us all next to Sammiya (and...well... now we know about the latter...). Why get too involved when the rest of us could keep tossing our suspicions on each other and do the work for them?

So, with risk of repeating myself, I dunno. I'm torn between Rasei and Mr. Alice, it seems, so unless something major happens on rollover, I guess that's the closest I can come up with as an answer.

...Well now, that took longer than I expected to post... orz And now that my brain's done farting...


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139 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:14 pm

I'm sorry, I been sorely unuseful this game. The other one is heating up, so I'm distracted. I will reread and do my thinking tomorrow... if I'm not dead.


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140 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:42 pm

Sorry for not being around! My internet has been really slow and cutting out a lot and I've been checking the threads but not really posting because sometimes when I try, the page doesn't load and then I lose my post. So I got frustrated and took a break. It's still kind of slow but I think not as bad as before?

I think I already mentioned my suspicions, but if you would like a ranking I think it is:

Most likely maf

Megrid
Mr Alice
Rasei
nautilus
myself?

Most likely town

The one thing I'm really really sure of is that nautilus is town.

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141 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Thu Jun 11, 2015 7:50 pm

nautilus wrote:EDIT: For all players who are still alive (Megrid, alcasync, Rasei, Mr. Alice) - who do you think is the most likely to be mafia, and why?

Hmmm....aw man, I guess, if pressed, I'd have to say...Megrid....maybe...??? Like I still feel like I haven't seen enough of Rasei to really get any sort of vibe from her (whether it be town or mafia), so that really makes me go ehh, you know? (Not saying that it's exactly bad or anything!! I mean it could be your strategy, or you could genuinely be more interested in the Red Riding Hood game, which iS TOTALLY OK BECAUSE DANG WHAT A SHOW.)

As for why, I don't really know what to say except gut feeling?? Like...idk...though betrayalpaca would be hilarious...

So I guess here's my preliminary list! (From most mafia to most town.)
Megrid, Rasei, Alcasync, Nautilus, ME


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142 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Thu Jun 11, 2015 8:59 pm

@Rasei - Please post when you have the chance! I think going into the final phase it's really, really important for all of us to participate in speculation.

Okay, so here's my series of potential outcomes for the next few phases:

If doctor protects against NK
- Ratio is 4:1 going into day phase - if we mislynch on d3, then we can still have a 2:1 ratio going into d4
If doctor fails to protect against NK or is the NK
- Ratio on d3 is 3:1 - mislynching on d3 will lead to town loss unless doctor is not the NK and can block the NK on the night after d3.

Therefore it's in our best interest to attempt to lynch correctly on d3.

Just in case I'm dead tonight, I'm going to post out a few things. Apologizes if these are rehashes of what I've said, I'm trying to eke this out before rollover.

Not withstanding alcasync's speculation on Megrid from the other day, it should be noted that Sammiya did not vote to save herself on d2. The current spread of votes on d2 at the time of her vote was, basically:

Megrid I
Sammiya I

Instead of voting for Megrid, she opted to vote for Rasei. This reads to me as hesitation to vote for Megrid to save herself (and put her out of dangerous lynch territory). Furthermore, her comments to me about following alcasync's post read to me as kind of warning me against following alcasync's vote (planting the idea that alcasync might be mafia), which can be interpreted as subtly trying to get me to unvote Megrid.

Also unrelated:

I honestly thought Mr Alice's vote was a vote to generate conversation or something so I didn't think much of it, much like I didn't think much of you voting for me

I believe this was in response to alcasync, but her perception of the vote changed markedly throughout the game (contrast how she doesn't think much of it here to when she compares the two votes later in the game, where she seems to antagonize alcasync's vote rather than treating them equally). It's interesting how she's considered Mr. Alice's vote to be one that generates conversation throughout the entire game consistently, which I suppose is evidence towards Alice possibly being the other mafia member (turning a blind eye to Mr. Alice). This is really the only "big" ammo I have towards Mr. Alice being Sammiya's mafia partner. Her behavior towards alcasync's vote also makes me think alcasync is probably not mafia, unless this is betrayalpaca.

Finally:
I am wondering why drandahl was chosen on the NK, but it might be because of how he did in the previous game. Alca would make sense for the doctor to focusing on protecting given how well she did in the previous game, and most of the people here have never played with me before so they might not know what to think of me.

The two theories Sammiya seems to be pushing are "drandahl's previous performance" theory and the "alcasync was probably doctor protected, therefore drandahl was chosen because they were unlikely to be protected".

I don't necessarily rule out mafia being antagonistic to mafia in this game and trying to throw each other under the bus, but rendering the ratio (town):1 very early on only makes the process of weeding out mafia slower, and prevents the solo mafia member from having someone that can defend them if times get tight.

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143 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Thu Jun 11, 2015 9:00 pm

Kiyoko

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D A Y T H R E E

Rain's a steady sizzle. People have started leaving. Town's too dangerous, they say. Their tires squeal down empty streets, bursting spray at every turn. You're still here, though. City's still here. You and the cold-faced buildings'll stick it out til the end.

ALCASYNC was killed. She was TOWN.



The ratio is 1 mafia, 3 town.

Night 3 begins 9:00pm PST on Friday, June 12


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144 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Thu Jun 11, 2015 9:10 pm

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I'll avenge you, alpaca!

Alright. We can do this. Team huddle here. We have to lynch correctly this phase, or risk banking on the doctor's protection going into the following night if we don't mislynch the doctor. Assuming we do a complete random lynch between Mr. Alice, Rasei, and Megrid, we have a 33% chance of hitting the final mafia member.

I'm inclined to think Megrid is the other mafia member (explains why no mafia member tried to save Sammiya when times got tough - Megrid mentioned being away when the bandwagon was rolling, Sammiya's not trying to save herself by voting on Megrid, instead voting on Rasei, alcasync's multiple comments on the subject from the day before, Sammiya's comment about me following alcasync's vote which easily could have been been trying to push me off voting her own mafia partner).

vote: Megrid

Mr. Alice's selective invisibility from Sammiya's radar of suspicion may be because of the fact that the alcasync heat would have made her focus and antagonize that vote more than Mr. Alice's vote. Mr. Alice has been largely following myself and alcasync though, which may be an attempt at separation between the two players, though.

HOWEVER I do actually want to hear what Rasei thinks, and who she believes is the most suspicious/likely to be mafia person in the thread, because it's entirely possible Mr. Alice or Rasei is the final mafia member; both bandwagoned me hard in the previous phase.

EDIT:
actually hold on, lemme try something...

Vote timestamps:
D2 PHASE BEGIN (12:00AM)
alcasync votes Megrid (3:44am)
nautilus votes Megrid (10:30am)
Megrid votes alcasync (6:30pm)
D2 EXTENSION (12:00AM) - CURRENT TALLY IS MEGRID II, ALCASYNC I
Megrid unvotes alcasync (12:29am)
nautilus votes Sammiya (4:32pm)
Sammiya votes Rasei (4:45pm)
Rasei votes Sammiya (6:07pm)*
Mr. Alice votes Sammiya (11:36pm)
D2 PHASE END (12:00AM)

The tally when Rasei voted Sammiya was 1:1:1 (Megrid, Sammiya, Rasei). Alcasync had yet to post after her first post post-extension and also voiced general ambivalence between which of Megrid and Sammiya were to be lynched, so had Rasei been Sammiya's mafia partner, it makes little sense for her not to vote to save Sammiya on Megrid, who would have been town (throughout the entire game, Rasei had expressed very few strong opinions or agreed with people on anything until she made this vote; she could've easily had said that she would want to vote Megrid and agree with alcasync - literally just substituting my name for alcasync's in her post and then voting Megrid). Given that mafia was a mislynch away from a 90% guaranteed win, I don't see the mafia not trying to pulling this gambit if Rasei/Sammiya are mafia partners.

Actually, if Megrid was town and got lynched, flipping town, that would've weakened alcasync's argument against Sammiya because part of her argument pertained to perceived "buddying" between the two as a mafia pair, so why didn't mafia try to do this

Also, revisiting Luxaria's pairings, I crossed out ones that are implausible due to one player flipping town, the ones that don't involve Sammiya, and the ones involving myself:

Megrid/Sammiya
Alcasync/Megrid
Megrid/Nautilus
Rasei/Nautilus (Nautilus kept mentioning being uneasy with Rasei, though, and did a vote for Rasei)
Alcasync/Mr. Alice
Sammiya/Mr. Alice (This might be plausible considering Mr. Alice stated they'd bandwagon Sammiya after the opportunity was gone)
Megrid/Mr. Alice (This one seems weaker)
Nautilus/Mr. Alice (Nautilus seems to find Mr. Alice to be consistent and innocuous)
Rasei/Mr. Alice (Rasei mentioned they might vote for Mr. Alice)

This... leaves only Megrid/Sammiya and Sammiya/Mr. Alice, so I think if anything the lynch should be between these two individuals.



Last edited by nautilus on Thu Jun 11, 2015 9:47 pm; edited 7 times in total (Reason for editing : Oh god this is getting intense.)

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145 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Thu Jun 11, 2015 9:59 pm

scREAMS ALPACA N O

why do the good die young ; - ;

That said, the only thing I can think of doing is vote: Megrid because she's still the most suspicious person on my list. D:

dead!alpaca is really no better than betrayalpaca sob

But I would really really really love to hear something from you, Rasei! D: I think the shellduck's right, a little discussion and input would be super helpful right now, if you can spare it. ; w ;


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146 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Fri Jun 12, 2015 8:39 am

Alright, so I've been thinking about this for a while and I just woke up, buuut:

New question to everyone still alive: What evidence do you have to prove that you are not mafia? If I hypothetically pressed all of you*, what would you say to your defense?

I only really ask this question because, uh, Megrid is kind of right when she says that Mr. Alice and Rasei haven't really said much this game, along with the fact that in Luxaria's post they bring up that Mr. Alice said they would have voted Sammiya after the day phase was over. So, to Mr. Alice and Rasei specifically: why should I think you're not mafia. I mean, I'm voting for Megrid right now, but both of you (or well, Mr. Alice over Rasei) could also be mafia. Why should I think you're town

Megrid makes an interesting point here:
I guess I'm not up to date on mafia strategies, but what better way to shake off suspicions of affiliations than to act like there was none in the first place? To do the unpredictable?

It's possible that Sammiya positioned herself from Rasei and Mr. Alice, I guess I can see mafia throwing each other under the bus as a valuable strategy when:

  • One of the mafia members has a significantly useful power to the mafia as a whole, and another is more "expendable" and either has no powers or has powers that pale in importance to the other mafia members; therefore, it makes sense for mafia to sacrifice the "weaker" powered mafia member to boost the credibility of the stronger one (all mafia have no powers in this game, making this moot)
  • One of the mafia members is under intense scrutiny and needs to be sacrificed to improve the credibility of the other member (the only theory that seems moderately likely, but once again: mafia was a mislynch away from winning and would have won had the mislynch been on the doctor, and it's surprising that no one tried to push harder, even with the extended phase)
  • There are a lot of mafia members and losing one is acceptable (there are only two mafia in this game and losing one over a strategy like this is counterproductive because you lose someone who could defend you and... just numbers)

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147 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Fri Jun 12, 2015 4:03 pm

Oh hmm, that's a hard question for me to answer, partly because I'm not sure if anything has made me sound more mafia or more town specifically so I'm not super sure of what I should be doing in my defense, but I think something that I've been seeing a lot of (or well, not a lot, but frequently? maybe??) is something about this:
I honestly thought Mr Alice's vote was a vote to generate conversation or something so I didn't think much of it, much like I didn't think much of you voting for me
(WHICH I'M GRABBING FROM YOUR POST NAUTILUS BUT I THINK IT WAS FROM SAMMIYA VIA CONTEXT??)

Like...it was literally a pretty random vote, so yeah, it was mostly made to get the ball rolling. And there was that question floating around of 'why would she say this about Mr. Alice when she didn't feel the same about someone else's vote', right? I probably could have addressed this point earlier, but honestly I didn't think there was much to say about it except that she was actually completely right?

I could have voted for anyone, and I pretty much would have, if ya'll remember the first...Day...? (Day 1?) where I was basically trying to push for a lynch. I was even willing to change my vote to get the majority off a No Lynch, so it wouldn't really have mattered who I chose to vote for in the first place.

So does that...answer that question? Or was there something else about that, that I can help anyone address? I could be completely missing the point of why that move was suspicious at all, so please let me know! OTL

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148 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Fri Jun 12, 2015 4:53 pm

...
Spoiler:
+ =

Vote:Megrid.

What evidence do you have to prove that you are not mafia? If I hypothetically pressed all of you*, what would you say to your defense?

I don't really have a lot of evidence that proves I'm not mafia. I been really quiet this game due to Red Riding Hood eating all my brain power. (I came home after work, turned on the computer, saw town won, collaspe on the couch and took a nap.)

I did follow the vote for Sammiyia before Mr. Alice if that counts.


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149 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Fri Jun 12, 2015 5:22 pm

Well, uh

I guess we just wait for Megrid? I'm a little anxious because if we mislynch this phase on the doctor or the doctor doesn't protect anyone the following night, the game is basically over, but I frankly can't think of anyone who I strongly believe is mafia other than Megrid except maybe Mr. Alice? Maybe? Who Knows

I'm bad at mafia.

So does that...answer that question? Or was there something else about that, that I can help anyone address? I could be completely missing the point of why that move was suspicious at all, so please let me know! OTL

It kind of does, though I admit my question was vague and I probably should've more directly addressed both of you with respect to specific actions, but outside of Sammiya's selective focus on alcasync's vote I can't really think of any really compelling arguments that either of you are mafia. Other than, well, bandwagoning, but the timing of the bandwagon on Sammiya by Rasei is off. And, well, Mr. Alice... I mean, like.

alcasync made a comment about the timing of votes being suspicious, and I agree with her; in Night 1 she made mention of this:

I wasn't really around to see this all happen in real time but... something about the way this phase ended makes me a little... umm, hmm, it feels like something was off, I suppose? I'm not really surprised about the no lynch result, more the fact that the no lynch votes happened so suddenly close to rollover when everyone was still discussing it with no real conclusion just a few hours earlier. I'm not really sure how to put this... Let me just show the vote timestamps and they might clear up what I mean. My timestamps are off because I don't know what timezone my forum is on but I forgot to change it.

2:40 am - alcasync votes for Sammiya
3:26 am - Mr Alice votes for Luxaria
1:06 pm - nautilus votes for Rasei
1:27 pm - Megrid votes for no vote
2:35 pm - Sammiya votes for no lynch
9:16 pm - Rasei votes for Megrid
12:25 am - Rasei votes for no vote
----- Mr. Alice makes a post here. At this point, the voting tally is Sammiya I, Luxaria I, Rasei I, no lynch I.
12:42 am - Megrid votes for no lynch
12:49 am - nautilus votes for Sammiya
12:59 am - Luxaria votes for no lynch
1:00 am - Phase end!

Mr. Alice was around at least when rollover happened (posted at :39), and therefore would have been aware of the potential for Sammiya to be lynched. Sammiya had already voted no lynch, and Mr. Alice had not posted the entire day. It was not until they posted at :39 that they made a comment about the fact that we should lynch someone.

Assuming Mr. Alice is mafia:
Why did Mr. Alice not change their vote to no lynch or Rasei to ensure 100% that Sammiya would not be lynched, and did not sneak in a no-lynch vote at any point after I had voted for Sammiya (they were around, as seen here)? Megrid made their vote at :42, so there were a few minutes where it would have been possible for Sammiya to be lynched, and given that Mr. Alice had not yet posted since that morning, they could've explained it easily with something like... "i read the thread and i don't think we should lynch now guys, my vote was just one for information" or "i want to lynch someone but i saw luxaria's reply so now i'm thinking maybe we should lynch Rasei".

I know basically all of these arguments can be countered by "but what if they were trying to separate themselves from one another", but that just leads down the road of the wine in front of me, where you basically go into a logical circle about "but what if they REALLY were" and I don't think we would... get anywhere?

Also: Rasei flipped town in the other game and she made identical day 1 moves in both games, she's either really good at being consistent with play regardless of alignment or she's town here too.

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150 Re: New Beginnings [TOWN WIN] on Fri Jun 12, 2015 6:16 pm

Megrid

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Hi again. Still working, still being cooked by the weather, still feeling my brain leaking out my ears. orz

In regards to the question, I'm really not sure how to answer. I feel like I'm being kept alive all this time because of the back-and-forth suspicion being thrown at me, which so far I guess had been working out, hadn't it? What a perfect bait to hide behind and all, especially when I had been less-than-keen on my choice of words and observations compared to you and Alca.

As I said before, I'm really on the camp that unless Nautilus had been doing a(n admittedly incredible) job of misleading us and stringing us along all this time, I'm pretty sure that you're town. You gave way too much input on the matter to really feel like mafia, and if you were mafia, you and Alcasnyc practically gave more than enough input to practically lay all your plans on the table for all to see. Now we know Alcasync was definitely town (RIP Alcasync... orz) and definitely backed up my thoughts on her I've mentioned before, so my opinion on Nautilus feels sound.

As for my opinions on Mr. Alice and Rasei... I dunno. I sound like a broken record when I say that I still have my eyes on you two on split reasons, and the reasons are more or less the same.

I've got a bit of headfog as far as elaborating right now, but in regards to the other game... I dunno... Like I told Alcasync (or rather...yelled at Alcasync. Sorry...), I've made my move to No Lynch during both games because it was crunch time for me OOCly and I didn't have the right head to commit to lynching anyone in either games when my foot had to be right out the door. Both games shared this reason behind the choice not to lynch. I died in the other game and flipped town when I died. Why then was it suspicious of me when I made the same move for the same reasons in two games earlier in the thread, but not suspicious of Rasei to do similar moves in the other game too, all because she flipped town too?


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