Laughing Among the Crying Wolves [OVER - MAFIA WIN]

I haven't actually shared my targets yet, but I think Cure and Sammiya had the same idea I did if they're telling the truth about their targets. On night 0 I targeted Aeiou and contacted Luxxxiepop (because of course I did, if you couldn't guess who I tried to contact immediately that's on you.) Night 1 I targeted Sammiya and tried to contact Aeiou, since if I was mafia with anyone it had to be the person I targeted N0. I've been quiet about this strategy up until now because I figured if I wasn't a part of the mafia, I didn't want to give them an easy way to contact each other, in case they didn't figure it out on their own, but I don't really think there's much reason to keep that under my hat anymore. If anyone's curious, I've actually been RNGing my targets (not my contact attempts, though).

And now, the numbers. If the mafia did not contact each other Night 0 (77% chance), the odds of a kill attempt tonight were about 39% with RNG'd targets. The odds that the mafia contacted each other by now are... Well, I don't think they matter with RNG'd targets, given the claims we've seen, if any of them turn out to be true, and they're pretty hard to figure out anyway given two people were removed from the pool of potential contacts between Night 0 and Night 1. So I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that if the mafia did not contact each other Night 0, they probably did so Night 1. This is, of course, just a "probably", and it's more than possible that they still haven't contacted each other. If the mafia didn't contact each other Night 0, the odds of a kill failing due to a town protect or town bulletproof are about 15%, and the odds of a mafia player being targeted for the kill are roughly 6%. Though these numbers rely on random votes, I am not inclined to vote for Luxxxiepop today.

Since I'm disinclined to vote for Luxxxiepop, I'll vote from her list, and I'll go for the only person on the list with a vote already. vote: Sammiya.

vote: Aeiou

Nothing personal, but I don't like being tied for lynch.

Everyone is being pretty quiet in general, though.

EDit: Or, rather, since Five ninjaed me I'm quite happy to keep it at a tie.

And I did have the same idea, Five, and was just keeping quiet about it.

Of course you two would become active and complicate things now. XD

I just woke up a bit over a hour ago, took a shower, fed the cats, and am eating my own breakfast.

Tiki The Troll wrote:Of course you two would become active and complicate things now. XD

I said I would be back with numbers and stuff after I slept. What did you expect, exactly?

Five wrote:

Tiki The Troll wrote:Of course you two would become active and complicate things now. XD

I said I would be back with numbers and stuff after I slept. What did you expect, exactly?

Oh, no, I'm glad you guys are here and talking in the game, it just means now I have to make actual decisions, which are much harder than, "Hmm, they haven't posted again, I'll vote them." XD

Hmm...what's the vote tally at?

squints at tally ninja

vote: AEIOU, no offense but I don't want to vote my sister

Hmm...despite how cute her avatar is, vote: Aeiou.

I return.

Hmm.

Aeiou is not on my list of four. I would be curious to see how she flips solely for the case of if she might be mafia to determine more about who her mafia partner might be based off of the night actions we've seen previously in conjunction with either claims or player personalities (super unreliable, though). If she's town, then I've got nothing. Except that my setup of four is probably more likely than not (though at that point the only one excluded is Tiki, so not... really all that useful, I guess).

I... have no real idea of how to apply logic or cross-reference statements within the context of this game, so my usual speculation is just. Not working well. I'm going to stick with my attempted logic and just say:

Vote: Sammiya

Even if the vote is pretty set on Aeiou unless someone swaps (you shouldn't, tbh, I actually have no clue), I just want to vote Sammiya so I can at least pretend I have some idea of what's going on in using my previously outlined reasoning.

updated vote tally.

@five - Yeah that's exactly what I did. Since someone died N0, I figured if I was mafia it had to be with Lux. Contacted her last night. No dice. So I... guess I'm not mafia.