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Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN]

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391 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 4:54 pm

Sammiya

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N1: Forgot to send in anything because I was focusing on other things.
N2: Sent in a stun on Ninfia, which she redirected to drandahl (before I was fairly certain she was town)


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392 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 4:59 pm

Ninfia, do you have any thoughts for this phase? You're the only one I don't think we've heard from.


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393 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 6:01 pm

Ninfia

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hey sorry guys! I was out all day christmas shopping. I'm caught up on the thread but I'm just posting to let you know I am... composing a longer post.


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394 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 6:25 pm

I'll hold my vote for Ninfia's big post.


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395 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 6:30 pm

Kiyoko

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Yo phase still ends at 8 but rollover might be late because MY DAY WAS FUCKING AWESOME AND I'M STILL OUT CHILLIN'


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396 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 6:54 pm

Ninfia

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plz go easy on me rn, I'm having a hard time using my brain.

Okay so, as far as I'm concerned, the only person who is actually cleared is Blaire, for reasons that have already been hashed out.

Therefore, there is a mafia member hiding out in the following group of people, ranked in order of how strongly I suspect them: Sammiya, Lux, Tiki. I guess technically I'm included in that but I know my alignment so its a moot point.

While I think there is a certain amount of RL shenanagins (which I did fall victim to myself) that are acceptable. Sammiya is usually a fairly quiet player, but this game has been notable in how quiet she is. I can't completely lean on this but I know in the past as maf I've claimed being absent because of rl stuff.

Blaire, I'm wondering why you'd vote for me? I understand the look towards sammiya, because people have pointed that out, but I've been active in lynching two mafia members and didn't vote for a mislynch. also, sammie tried to stun me which seemed to have been the move that condemned Dran.

That being said, Lux makes a pretty good point about Tiki's voting. He seems to be waiting until things get down to the wire and seeing which way things go before he commits to anything. I'm a little uncertain being the first to vote, but we can also afford one mislynch worst case scenario.

ummm.... I don't really have time to linger and think about this and we need to take action. I've got an exam tomorrow I need to study for so I'm going to go with my gut.

Vote: Sammiya


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397 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:11 pm

Well, with less than an hour to go, I'm going to join Ninfia and vote the one I've most suspected.

Vote: Sammiya

Edit: And yes, I've been waiting to see how others vote. Why? Well, to hear more opinions, defenses, and analysis before I commit, To avoid have huge ties, and because, as previously stated: I have realized I'm as blind to how people operate as you are baffled by my own way of thinking.


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398 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:26 pm

Still digging through the thread with a focus on Tiki and Sammiya in relation to drandahl and high seraph, while keeping an eye out for Ninfia's posts just to be thorough. But with each post by Ninfia, it just gets harder to entertain the idea of a mafia strategy involving her going after all of her teammates right out of the gate. Unless this game goes another few phases and leads to some awkward situations, I'm just ruling her out now (which I've said before, but I'm still being thorough with my analysis).

Tiki and Sammiya... so difficult. Actually, Tiki, I have a question for you. I'm getting to that point in reviewing the thread, but can you re-hash why you voted for Mr. Alice on D2 instead of other targets? Why didn't high seraph or drandahl seem scummy to you, for that matter?

Last night's claims are... interesting, with Blaire's claim as a crucial piece of the puzzle. It boils down to this: I do not think mafia will try for a stun at this stage (nor a protect to deny it; protecting their target is suicide, and protecting themself can't defend against a bus'd NK, and throwing a protect on a random target still has a chance of being bussed). Stunning just clears a player. At worst, it can hit themselves. Clearing a player when they're already racing the clock needing to take out four people by themselves... The only way it works is if they plan to NK that target, but it means foregoing control of the bus for a phase or two.

However, via process of elimination...

From my perspective, only one of Ninfia, Tiki, and Sammiya can be lying. The simple solution is that Tiki is telling the truth and got his stun redirected onto Mr. Alice. Let's say Tiki is the mafia. He's suddenly no longer the stunner (or he is mafia and is telling the truth about the stun, but why stun Sammiya--someone viewed so suspiciously--while sending in a NK on T3tsuya?). So this means he's lying and bussed between Luxaria and Mr. Alice and Sammiya's stun went off. Why? I guess if you're trying to deny a bus you could do that? I'm struggling to find a good reason for it, but if anyone has one, feel free to tell me. Maybe you're trying to steal a bus and prevent any protects on Luxaria from going elsewhere? Or... I guess that's all I've got.

The alternative of Ninfia lying comes up with the same problem of a bus between Luxaria and Mr. Alice. There's the other case of Tiki's now truthful stun going through. There's two possibilities, but at this point I re-iterate: I'm having trouble picturing a mafia Ninfia, which leads me to preclude her from serious speculation.

So this leaves Sammiya as lying. The stun still goes off, and I suspect she probably went for a bus.

Alternatively, everyone told the truth. But if anyone were to lie in all of this, it'd have to be Sammiya doing her stun.

tl;dr: I believe Tiki told the truth with his action last night, and stunning at this stage does not make sense as a mafia since it just clears players or can hit themself. In order for Tiki to be lying, he would have to have bussed Luxaria and Mr. Alice, and I can't figure out why mafia would bus these targets while NKing T3tsuya.

Tiki telling the truth about stunning is key for me, since clearing a player or nullifying a NK is a pro-town move at this point. I do find some of his voting suspicious, but overall... probably town.

I'm inclined to vote for Sammiya.

And two votes are on her.

Posting my thoughts up while I double-check one thing regarding Tiki to be safe, but I think in a few moments I will vote Sammiya.

Edit: I suppose there's the chance T3tsuya got a bus between Luxaria and Mr. Alice, actually, but like the mafia I'm not quite sure why he'd do that, either. It weakens the support for Tiki only a tiny bit.

Posting momentarily.



Last edited by Luxaria on Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:31 pm; edited 1 time in total


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399 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:31 pm

can i vote blaire 4 mayor


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400 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:36 pm

That's some good sleuthing there, Lux.

Actually, I at first didn't suspect Dran with his self-vote, thinking it indeed could have been an accident. It didn't make any sense to me to do it on purpose. Then though I started thinking of how that could be a good, tactical misdirection in the following phases.

I did suspect Lucas as a possibility, as I stated, finding him somehow...different than usual. Still, I couldn't put my finger on it, and my gut feelings have a tendency to be wrong, so i was hesitant to lock in his lynch.

That left the potential targets of Sammie and Blaire for me, both being stingy with information. I went with Blaire because Sammie did have what could have been a legit excuse for not getting to talk, while Blaire had been chatty, just not helpful, nor forthcoming. XD


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401 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:37 pm

Sammiya

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BLAIRE NO.

I really have nothing much more to say in my own defense. But for the sake of having a vote Vote: Tiki since I still feel like Ninfia's town, along with Lux and Blaire.


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402 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:45 pm

Augh. I still can't shake some suspicions about Tiki due to weird habits/voting during the game, but he has seemed... genuine and helpful at quite a few points. Tiki, srsly, in the future make it easier for me to read you.

Sammiya is a tougher nut to crack because she's flown relatively under the radar (mafia have mentioned her, but mostly as a "lowest of the possible suspects, want to hear more, omg y u start9?" sort of things) and been mostly quiet. In her favor, she did hammer the lynch on drandahl, but... I mean he was basically a goner after being stunned and no NK went off.

Vote: Sammiya

I think I feel most confident in this after reading the other replies this phase, plus if we do mislynch we have a healthy safety net. So I guess let's see what happens.


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403 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:51 pm

Luxaria wrote:Augh. I still can't shake some suspicions about Tiki due to weird habits/voting during the game, but he has seemed... genuine and helpful at quite a few points. Tiki, srsly, in the future make it easier for me to read you.

I make no promises.


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404 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:52 pm

Mr. Alice wrote:can i vote blaire 4 mayor

The vote is now locked on Sammie.

So, yes. Yes, you may.


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405 Re: Twitch Plays Mafia [HELIX WIN] on Sat Dec 12, 2015 7:57 pm

Vote: Sammiya i GUESS


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